The revocation of the mandate, the elections next June and the votes of 2023 will mean a thermometer for the political forces heading for the presidential elections, in the midst of growing polarization and focused violence, political scientists and experts in political campaigns agreed during the Expansion Meeting . By participating in the talk entitled The electoral challenges towards 2024, the President Councilor of the National Electoral Institute (INE), Lorenzo Córdova, considered that the electoral referee is not only “armored” but strengthened towards the elections at the door given the political and social context that exists in the country.
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‘It is not that the State of Mexico defines the presidential election, that has been lost since Enrique Peña Nieto, but what does it cost the president politically to give the PRI, Coahuila, Hidalgo and the State of Mexico in exchange for breaking the Alliance for Mexico and the energy reform? Any’.
‘There is a good state of health, in terms of trust in the INE,’ said the president counselor, stressing that as never before, the electoral body is experiencing systematized attacks such as disqualifications from power, budget suffocation and ‘the threat’ of an electoral reform to weaken it. On the way to 2024, in addition to the elections in the states that will reconfigure the political map, the consultation exercise for the revocation of the mandate is also presented, which will also be a test for President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his national project, since will serve to measure the pulse in the federal election. “The president’s strategy is very clear of what he wants and he has not deviated even one millimeter, he has a very powerful narrative built since 2000 where the opposition does not have a counter-narrative and a figure that can contrast, “he said Gisela Rubach, General Director of Consultants and Political Marketing and professor at the Technological and Autonomous Institute of Mexico (ITAM). ‘The president is in charge of the show above, but we have to go down to what is being done on the ground, where the governors are totally immobilized (…) he already has a large organization deployed in the 300 electoral districts with packages of programs of support’. The political strategist said that we must pay attention to the movements that occur in the elections of Hidalgo, State of Mexico and Cohuila, governorships held by the PRI and that might be crucial for 2024.
The opposition and the road to 2024 The narrative will be built on the 22nd and 23rd, Edomex will weigh heavily, but in the end, the issue will be how the opposition will position itself, which has to work to be a real counterweight, it would have to generate a narrative, but it needs a narrator, without a narrator there is no narrative. It takes a face.”
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FOLLOWING
On the way to 2024, the opposition parties have the opportunity to strengthen themselves, but if they do not find a strong ‘narrative’, some parties like the PRI or the PRD are in danger of even losing their registration at the local level, so the specialists foresee a reconfiguration, although everything will depend on the next elections and the results obtained by Morena. Héctor Llerena, professor at ITAM and the UNAM Social Research Institute , considered that the 2024 election will undoubtedly be a “plebiscitary” contest to find out if “andrésmanuelismo” continues or not. And he stressed that the elections that are taking place at that time will be good to measure whether polarization begins to undermine friends and supporters of the Federal Executive, however, he said that as long as the opposition does not have a narrative and a narrator on this path, it will be hard to get ahead. Gisela Rubrach emphasized that although 2024 is still far away and attention should be paid to the previous elections: if Morena wins four or five governorships of the eight that would be at stake, which would give “encouragement to the opposition.” “Definitely the prelude is the year that comes with the State of Mexico and Coahuila,” she said, explaining that although she does not define the presidential election, it is an engine of political reconfiguration. For Rodrigo Galván De las Heras, General Director of De las Heras Demotechnics what has been seen in the last elections show that it will be complicated for the Va por México alliance, made up of PRI, PAN and PRD, although if Aguascalientes and Durango win this year, and the State of Mexico and Coahuila, in 2023, they can gain strength towards the federal elections of 2024. “If this year the Durango, Aguascalientes alliance wins, as it may be, next year Coahuila and the State of Mexico win, they can take on an important force for the following year, for me the alliance is born losing, Even if they win that and go in alliance on the 24th, it seems to me that by making an alliance and polarizing the entire election, they are going to make it easier for Morena,” he said.
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“It is a precedent because through the budgetary route the integrity of an election can be compromised and that allows whoever defines the budget, the possibility of playing depending on how they see the board.” The challenges of the INE For the arbitrator of the dispute, Córdova Vianello, the organization of the revocation of the mandate has meant countless attacks for the INE, despite the fact that they have “the armor of the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation (SCJN)” that he defended that they cannot proceed once morest them, and important changes in the organization. The president counselor considered that “a very delicate door was opened towards the 24th”, which has to do with the budget that will be granted for future elections and democratic exercises, due to the ‘budget suffocation’ that led to the reduction of voting booths They will be installed on April 10. In addition, he added, the non-installation of voting booths that the law mandates, is a ’cause for nullity’. So, one more element was placed as a strategy for an election and it is a very serious precedent, ”he assured. Regarding the electoral reform that is sought to be discussed in this legislature, together with the electricity and the National Guard, he estimated that there are no conditions to carry it out. “I see very complicated conditions to generate an electoral reform. I believe that there will be no electoral reform, which is reassuring because opening an electoral reform in the run-up to a presidential election generates the worst incentives,” said Córdova, considering that the electoral reforms of the last 25 years have been launched. in an intermediate election: that of 96 in 97, that of 2007 in 2009 and that of 2014 in 2015. The wear and tear of governing ‘Perhaps there will be 21 states governed by Morena and up to 23 states with Morena congresses even though the governor is of another party and this can begin to be their debacle because they will face their government experience’.
The political scientist Héctor Llerena, considered that the polarization will end up “charging a bill” for the government and the approval levels that the arbitrator of the contest has attest to this. “Polarization can also begin to undermine many close associates and supporters (of the president). We are beginning to see that in the approval of the INE and in the growing disapproval of the electricity reform, there is a middle class that is informing itself”, he explained, explaining that there is a nucleus that voted for Morena, for being once morest what did not work in the past, and to which the opposition has not known how to speak, because there is a public that does not like the president to attack, but also disapproves of what the opposition does. Rodrigo Galván De las Heras stressed that the fact that Morena can govern in 21 states, “may also begin to be her debacle”, because there is a natural wear and tear when she is in power and the population begins to see that there are problems that are not resolved like violence or the economy. He explained that in 2024, the governments of Morena are already going to face the results of their governments, and at that moment, when “citizens abandon their expectations and demands,” there will be an electoral impact.
