2024-11-08 07:00:00
Return of Donald Trump to the White House: geopolitical issues in Africa and potential impacts on the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. Thierno Boubacar Tounkara, economist and lecturer on contemporary issues in several Guinean universities, shares his concerns in an exclusive interview granted to our editorial staff. Read!
Guinea360: What could be the impacts of Trump’s re-election on the African continent?
Thierno Boubacar Tounkara: It must be admitted that Africa did not occupy a large place in the recent presidential campaign of the United States. We rarely talked about Africa. In any case, I haven’t heard any significant mention of this.
What about other parts of the world?
Furthermore, even if international relations were not at the heart of the speeches, we did not observe coherent or structured statements that present clear intentions or future actions. In short, international issues were largely absent from this electoral campaign. That said, relations between Africa and the United States remain very limited. First, there is an exchange agreement, called the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which allows certain African countries to export products to the American market without customs duties.
What does the United States gain in return?
The United States also depends on Africa for certain raw materials, notably oil and other strategic resources such as bauxite, which is found for example in Guinea. But Africa’s place in United States foreign policy remains very small. We don’t talk about it much. Instead, the immigration debate is pervasive, but mostly concerns Hispanics and Latin American countries.
During the campaign, Donald Trump spoke of his commitment to repatriating migrants. What do you think?
He did not specifically mention Africans. The speech was more aimed at immigrants in general, with a particular emphasis on Hispanics, because they are the most numerous in the United States. In this campaign, it is essential to distinguish the speech of a candidate from that of an elected president. In the countryside, it is common to brandish intentions to repatriate illegal immigrants to capture public opinion. This speech actually played a role in the election of Trump, by playing on fears linked to economic crises and inflation. Trump recently thanked his voters, mentioning the various foreign communities in the United States, including Hispanics and Arabs. This shows that he is starting to qualify his remarks. Let’s wait to see how, as president, he translates these words into action.
Can we expect changes in relations between Africa and the United States?
It is difficult to predict what will happen, as America faces many geopolitical and economic pressures, notably from China, India, and the European Union, with which it is running a deficit commercial. Trump’s policy will therefore depend on the pressure exerted by these competing countries. In this context, Africa could interest the United States for its market and its natural resources. Moreover, Joe Biden, in a context of crisis, had mentioned the possibility of integrating two African countries into the United Nations Security Council, as an attempt at rapprochement with Africa. In general, Republicans place less importance on issues of human rights and democracy than Democrats, who place more emphasis on these values. Republicans often favor economic realism.
Trump also promised to end the war in Ukraine. Do you think he will respect this commitment?
Campaign promises are often declarations of intent. You don’t end a war with a simple gesture; it’s a complex question. Trump has good relations with Putin, and Ukraine is holding its breath as it is difficult to predict what approach Trump will take to end the conflict. For the war to stop, either Russia capitulates or certain concessions are granted, particularly regarding its security. Russia wants the eastern part of Ukraine to remain a buffer zone between it and NATO. An old agreement, that of Minsk, stipulated that NATO would not deposit forces in the former Eastern European countries. Russia is fighting to maintain this buffer zone with Ukraine. If Ukraine wants to join the European Union and NATO, a compromise will have to be found on this issue. Ending the war in Ukraine could therefore imply either acceptance of this buffer zone or a military defeat for Ukraine. Otherwise, it is difficult to see how the conflict could conclude.
Do you think it will apply the same way to ending the war in Gaza?
There is also a problem there. First, there is a fundamental fact: the entire American community, all its heads of state, agree on the protection of Israel. It is an inalienable fact of American geopolitics. This is one of the basic principles. Israel is defended at all costs, against all morality. Second, Trump is more pro-Israel than the entire US administration. Because Kamala Harris and Biden agree to support Israel, but, for them, the outcome of the war would be the formation of two states, while this does not appear in Trump’s speech. Trump moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, which means it is not logical to have two states. But I don’t see how he can get out of it, despite the fact that he recognizes the Arab vote in his favor. However, the problem for Arab Americans is American aid to Israel, particularly for weapons. But there is a way out in this analysis that I am doing: Trump 1 is not equal to Trump 2. When Trump 1 came to power, he had no idea of this geopolitical machine that is America. I believe that over time, when he left power, he had time to reflect, to review his behavior, his strategy and above all to surround himself with competent people.
A particular message to African leaders following this election of Donald Trump?
African leaders must think about 1000 things again and again. They must prioritize the interests of their countries instead of abandoning themselves to foreign powers. And President Mamadi Doumbouya said a very important sentence at the United Nations: “We are neither pro nor anti-American, neither pro nor anti-Chinese, neither pro nor anti-French, neither pro nor anti-Russian, neither pro nor anti. Turkish. We are simply pro-African”, this phrase must be anchored in all African leaders, we must defend African interests in relation to the powers.
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**Interview with Thierno Boubacar Tounkara: Potential Impacts of Trump’s Re-election on Africa**
**Guinea360:** Thank you for joining us today, Thierno. Given the context of the ongoing 2024 U.S. presidential election, what do you see as the potential impacts of Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House on the African continent?
**Thierno Boubacar Tounkara:** Thank you for having me. It’s important to note that Africa did not feature prominently in Trump’s campaign rhetoric, which raises questions about the continent’s role in U.S. foreign policy should he return. In fact, I haven’t encountered significant engagement or discussion regarding Africa from any candidates during this campaign.
**Guinea360:** You mentioned that international relations were mostly absent from the campaign. How does this reflect on the U.S.-Africa relationship?
**Thierno Boubacar Tounkara:** Indeed, international relations took a back seat. Currently, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is a key framework allowing African nations to export to the U.S. tariff-free. However, the overall engagement remains limited. The U.S. depends on Africa for raw materials like oil and bauxite, but public discourse often centers around migration and trade with Latin America rather than deepening U.S.-Africa ties.
**Guinea360:** Speaking of migration, Trump’s campaign included promises about repatriating migrants. How does that affect perceptions of African migrants specifically?
**Thierno Boubacar Tounkara:** Trump’s discourse primarily targeted Hispanic migrants who constitute the largest immigrant group. African migrants were not emphasized. Political speeches often cater to public sentiment, especially during campaigns, but actions taken during presidency can differ significantly from campaign rhetoric. It remains to be seen how his approach will manifest if he is in office again.
**Guinea360:** With the geopolitical landscape shifting, particularly with rising powers like China and India, do you anticipate any changes in U.S.-Africa relations under a Trump presidency?
**Thierno Boubacar Tounkara:** It’s difficult to predict specific outcomes, but the ongoing competition for influence in Africa may lead the U.S. to increase its economic engagement, particularly focusing on markets and resources. Republicans like Trump tend to prioritize economic considerations over human rights, which might lead to a different set of policies compared to a Democratic administration.
**Guinea360:** Shifting gears, Trump has claimed he can end the war in Ukraine. Do you think such a promise can realistically be fulfilled?
**Thierno Boubacar Tounkara:** Campaign promises are often simplistic. Ending a war involves complex negotiations and concessions. Trump’s connections with Putin might facilitate dialogue, but the fundamental issues of territorial integrity and NATO’s expansion remain significant obstacles. A sustainable resolution would require both sides to make tough compromises.
**Guinea360:** What about the situation in Gaza? How could Trump’s policies influence that conflict?
**Thierno Boubacar Tounkara:** Trump’s pro-Israel stance is well-documented, and such positions are deeply ingrained in U.S. foreign policy. Given that the protection of Israel is a cornerstone of American geopolitical interests, I doubt we’ll see significant shifts in terms of how the U.S. approaches Gaza under a Trump administration. The complexity of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict coupled with domestic political dynamics makes any substantial changes unlikely.
**Guinea360:** Thank you for sharing your insights, Thierno. It’s clear that the implications of a Trump presidency could be profound, not only for Africa but for global geopolitics as well.
**Thierno Boubacar Tounkara:** Thank you for having me. It’s crucial for us to stay informed about these dynamics as they evolve.