2023-06-17 09:51:09
“Some people bet on the United States to win and China to lose. Those who bet on China to lose now will regret it in the future.” The words of Beijing’s ambassador to Seoul, Xing Haiming, recently caused an uproar in South Korea. South Korea’s president criticized Xing’s words and actions for displeasing the South Korean people. South Korea’s deputy foreign minister summoned Xing Haiming, accusing him of making “unreasonably provocative” remarks. Some public opinion even advocated listing Xing Haiming as “persona non grata”.
Such an exasperated reaction from Seoul proves from the side that the Chinese ambassador’s warning hit South Korea’s sore spot. Since the Yun Xiyue government came to power, South Korea changed its balance between China and the United States, and fell headfirst into the arms of the United States, which led to the deterioration of Sino-South Korean relations. The psychological incentive for South Korea to be close to the United States and China is to be pessimistic regarding China, but as Xing Haiming said, it is unwise for Seoul to rush to choose sides.
Recently, in addition to the clichéd “China threat theory,” a so-called “Peak China” theory (also translated as “peak theory”) has become popular in the Western world. The May 13, 2023 issue of “The Economist” even featured “Peak China?” According to a review by The Economist, Western analysts generally tend to be pessimistic regarding China’s economic growth potential. In the next 10 years, the economies of China and the United States will be evenly matched at most. The prospect of China catching up with the United States is no longer optimistic. In other words, China’s 40-plus years of rapid development has reached its peak, and it is regarding to go downhill.
The economic growth rate is not as good as expected, the population growth rate is negative for the first time in 61 years, and the unemployment of college students is everywhere… Due to the impact of epidemic prevention and control, Sino-US competition and other factors, China has indeed encountered some difficulties in its development for some time. However, to say that China’s economy is at the end of its strength just because some short-term data is ugly is to underestimate China. As early as February this year, Xing Haiming wrote an article in Korea’s “Daily Economic News” to refute the “peak theory.” He believes that the Chinese economy withstood the pressure last year and made steady progress, and its actual performance was higher than market expectations. He emphasized that China has unparalleled advantages in terms of market size, industrial equipment, and human resources, which will not change due to short-term fluctuations in economic data. He concluded by pointing out that the dividends of China’s high-quality development are being gradually released. New areas, new kinetic energy, and new advantages will create new vitality for the Chinese economy, and China will continue to be the biggest driving force for global economic growth.
Not long ago, China’s new ambassador to the United States, Xie Feng, delivered a speech at the welcome event of the US-China Business Council, and also refuted pessimistic views on China’s development. In addition to reaffirming China’s unique advantages such as a large-scale market, a complete industrial system, high-quality human resources, and a predictable business environment, he also proved through a series of documents that China’s economy is not only not in recession, but there is still a lot of room for growth. Not only has China’s demographic dividend not disappeared, but its talent dividend is increasingly apparent. Finally, Xie Feng took Airbus’ announcement of building a second production line in Tianjin and Tesla’s new energy storage superfactory in Shanghai as examples, illustrating that foreign capital giants cast a vote of confidence in the Chinese economy with their actions.
In addition, the mainland think tank Renmin University of China also published a report, evaluating the “peak theory” as “too outrageous”, saying that it is just a replica of the “China collapse theory” that went bankrupt long ago. The report predicts that China’s economy will grow at a medium to high rate in the post-epidemic era, and will continue to be significantly faster than the global and US economies, and its GDP will surpass that of the US by 2030. Regardless of whether the prophecy comes true, what is certain is that China’s will and ability to achieve national rejuvenation cannot be underestimated. South Korea is desperately betting on the United States, and looking down on China is not a good strategy. “Those who bet once morest China now and lose will regret it in the future” is also worthy of reference by those Taiwanese politicians who are competing to please the United States.
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