2024-03-06 03:18:12
As one of the biggest free agents this offseason, Cody Bellinger took longer than expected to find a home for this season. But in the end, the Chicago Cubs recognized his performance last year and signed him to a three-year, $80 million contract. If a former MVP is not renewed by the team that initially selected him at the age of 27, as was the case with Bellinger and the Dodgers, it will be considered that the peak of his career is probably over. However, Bellinger has successfully proved himself. With his resurrection in the Cubs in 2023, he has won the opportunity to return to Chicago, and it is very likely that it will not be just a flash in the pan…
This article is compiled from Why the Cubs should believe in Cody Bellinger’s resurgence as former MVP inks three-year deal, per report
As one of the biggest free agents this offseason, Cody Bellinger took longer than expected to find a home for this season. According to a tweet from well-known ESPN reporter Jeff Passan, the Chicago Cubs recognized his performance last year and signed him to a three-year, $80 million contract. Bellinger has a player option for the first two years of his contract. Therefore, the 28-year-old outfielder’s salary will be 30 million this season. If he does not escape the contract for the next two years, his salary will be 30 million in 2025 and 20 million in 2026.
Bellinger earned the chance to return to Chicago with his resurrection in 2023 with the Cubs. If a former MVP is not renewed by the team that initially selected him at the age of 27, as was the case with Bellinger and the Dodgers, it will be considered that the peak of his career is probably over. However, everything is not as imagined. In the 2023 season, Bellinger posted .307/.356/.525 in 130 games with the Cubs, with an OPS+ of 133, along with 26 home runs and 26 steals. Coupled with his fielding value in center field and first base, the full year With a WAR value of 4.4, the last time he might deliver such a high-end performance was back in the 2019 MVP season.
If nothing else, Bellinger’s jump in performance was due to finally being healthy. He dislocated his left shoulder in the 2020 playoffs and fractured his left foot shortly following the start of the 2021 season. Although his injuries were not limited to the above two injuries, these two injuries should have sacrificed his hit production and even affected his swing mechanism. . While Bellinger’s recovery from these injuries has been instrumental in his resurgent season this year, the biggest change has to be better discipline at the plate. It can be said that the Cubs signed this long-term contract following reasonably calculating its risks.
Broadly speaking, Bellinger adjusted his swing mechanics for the 2023 season, sacrificing batting quality to get more frequent hits:
- Last season, Bellinger’s bat velocity was a career low of 87.9 mph, compared to the major league average of 88.4 mph. Both his strong batting average and outstanding batting average were career lows and below the major league average.
- At the same time, Bellinger’s strikeout rate and swing rate were career lows. Bellinger’s strikeout rate was lower than 87% and his swing rate was lower than 77% of major league hitters. This also resulted in Bellinger’s batting average in and out of the strike zone hitting career highs.
From a modern baseball perspective, that’s not the most ideal situation. Long hits are the best result for the hitter, which encourages the hitter to swing the bat with all his strength and carry the ball beyond the home run mark, which represents power. While Bellinger’s power is still good, the decline in hitting numbers still needs to be considered. Another thing that needs to be considered is that attacks based on strike rate are prone to random changes, or it can be said to be pure luck.
This luck can often be measured by batting average (BABIP). Taking Bellinger as an example, his BABIP last season was .319 and his BABIP this past season was .277. This should be a relatively extreme situation, which means that the next performance may return. However, hitters have more control over BABIP than pitchers do, and you might say that Bellinger’s swing and the changes he made made his results “closer to BABIP.”
Similarly, let’s note that Bellinger had a .303 ground ball rate last season, compared to his 2017-2022 season, when he had a .254 ground ball rate. But at the same time, left-hand hitters with good running speed have been subject to extreme formations in the past few years and have benefited from restricted formations this year. Therefore, this kind of Bellinger can still maintain such hitting results.
At the same time, the hitting-heavy hitting style has compensated for Bellinger’s past weaknesses. In his 2020-2022 season, Bellinger was unable to effectively attack the high ball at the three position, hitting a miserable .089/.226/.194, with an expected weighted on-base percentage xwOBA of .226, and a strikeout rate of over 40%. However, Bellinger hit .279/.341/.365 at the third position last season, with an xwOBA of .290, and his strikeout rate was cut in half to 20.3%. This is a potential improvement regardless of whether his BABIP and overall batting average decline next season.
Speaking of batting average declines, Bellinger’s xwOBA.327 in the 2023 season is quite an improvement. However, even if his production dips slightly in 2024, he’ll still be a better-than-major-league average hitter. Combined with his performance outside of hitting, he’s still a very good player.
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