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While Africa has managed to absorb the shock caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the continent’s economy remains hard hit by inflation linked to the war in Ukraine, as well as by the effects of global warming, alert, Thursday, the French Development Agency.
It is one of the most resilient geographical areas in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2023, Africa’s GDP per capita will exceed its 2019 level, allowing the continent to join the geographical areas in the world that have seen their national wealth recover to pre-pandemic levels, indicated, Thursday January 12, the Agency French development agency (AFD).
“The Covid shock has now been absorbed,” said Thomas Mélonio, director of research at AFD, in the preamble to the presentation of a book presenting the prospects for the French institution on the continent this year.
The fastest growing region is the Greater Sahel, which, despite significant security challenges, has a diversified economy and continues to derive significant profits from mining. East and North Africa rank second and third.
The growth of the continent nevertheless hides a difficult economic situation and subject to the vagaries of the international situation, a few weeks before the first anniversary of the war in Ukraine.
Rampant inflation
This war was marked by a spike in grain prices just following the invasion of Ukraine, which before the conflict with Russia generated 30% of the planet’s wheat supply.
After reaching historic highs in March, world food prices calmed down at the end of the year, particularly following the resumption of Ukrainian wheat exports to the Black Sea.
In this context, Africa has “escaped” the mass famines feared last year by the United Nations, said Bio Goura Soulé, expert at ECOWAS, the Economic Community of African States in West, during the AFD conference.
On the other hand, the persistent rise in fertilizer prices might still weigh on agricultural production this year, warned Thomas Mélonio.
Food insecurity and global warming
More broadly, the situation is far from being stabilized with regard to food security, estimated Benoit Faivre-Dupaigre, research officer at AFD, recalling that most of the States requiring food assistance in the world were in Africa. .
According to the report, the three countries most at risk are the Central African Republic, Madagascar and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which have been plagued by an upsurge in fighting between security forces and M23 rebels.
“This should not be blamed solely on food prices but on the overall situation of conflicts and crises in different areas of Africa”, particularly in the Sahel and the east of the continent, which is suffering from severe drought, he also asserted.
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The UN estimates that in 2022, 12.7 million people were exposed to severe food insecurity in the G5 Sahel (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mauritania and Chad), due to a combination of factors including the insecurity, the climate or even inflation.
In its latest economic forecast for sub-Saharan Africa in October, the International Monetary Fund said it expected growth of 3.7% in 2023 following 3.6% in 2022.
With AFP