Updated on 03/25/2022 at 2:12 p.m
- The resignation of senior Putin adviser Anatoly Chubais and the dismissal of numerous generals reveal cracks in Putin’s circle of power.
- Fearing a coup and dissatisfaction with intelligence information, Putin is said to be carrying out “internal purges.”
- “Uneasiness is spreading in the Kremlin,” says military expert Gustav Gressel.
It might have been a message with a signal effect: in the middle of the week (23) the resignation of the long-serving Kremlin politician and special adviser to Vladimir Putin, Anatoly Chubais, became known. The 66-year-old fled to Turkey with his wife, according to media reports in connection with of Russia war once morest them Ukraine to stand.
Chubais is the highest-ranking figure to have withdrawn loyalty from Putin since the invasion began. The liberal had held key positions in the Russian political apparatus for a long time and was instrumental in post-communist reforms in the 1990s. Under Putin’s predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, Chubais was head of the presidential administration and then went into business. In December 2020 he was appointed by Putin as a special envoy for the sustainable development of Russia.
Cracks in the leadership circle?
Are there signs of cracks in Putin’s leadership circle? Military expert Gustav Gressel is skeptical. “I would still be cautious at the moment. Putin hasn’t listened to the economic-technocratic people from the Yeltsin era for a long time,” he said, commenting on Chubai’s withdrawal. It is difficult to assess how close the relationship was recently.
But there are more rumors of uneasiness in the Moscow power circle and suspicious absences around Putin. In recent weeks, Putin has dumped several generals, placed them under house arrest or had them arrested. First, leading heads of the domestic secret service FSB were hit, now the deputy chief of the national guard, Roman Gavrilov, was fired. Eight generals are said to have been dismissed during the war.
Internal “cleansing”
As analyzed by the US Institute for the Study of War, Putin is carrying out internal “purges” among his generals and secret service employees. The motive given is a retaliatory measure for incorrect forecasts regarding the course of the war, which he believes they have given him. The resistance in Ukraine had surprised the Russian ruler.
Other, so far unconfirmed According to media reports Putin wants to replace the head of the central bank, Elvira Nabiullina. There are also rumors regarding a possible resignation. Nabiullina is known for her symbolic clothing – a brooch in the shape of a house was interpreted at the beginning of the corona pandemic as an appeal to stay at home. At a press conference in early March, Nabiullina appeared dressed all in black – funeral mood.
resentment in the Kremlin
“There is greater dissatisfaction in the Kremlin, in the business elite as well as in the security authorities. The pictures of the generals who have been exposed in recent days bear witness to this,” agrees Gressel. Many are of the opinion that Putin played too high and would harm the country in the long run.
However, Gressel does not believe that the resignations and dismissals will be critical to the system for Putin. “Only a few draw direct consequences from their displeasure at this point in time,” he says.
fear of assassination
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is also in focus. According to research by Russian journalists, Putin’s close confidant and one of those primarily responsible for the war in Ukraine has not appeared in public for almost two weeks. This sows doubts regarding his loyalty. However, the Kremlin rejected speculation: “The defense minister has a lot to do at the moment,” it said.
Putin should still be afraid of an attempted coup. He is said to have kept his circle of advisors to a minimum and is increasingly isolating himself. “If Putin is to be eliminated, a conspiracy would have to form once morest him. People from his inner circle would have to get together actively,” says Gressel.
“There is a control hysteria”
Those who – like Chubais – flee from Russia’s elite abroad can keep their money, but are excluded from power from now on. “Chubais no longer has any instruments of power or political influence,” says Gressel.
At the same time, the Russian intelligence services would pull out all the stops to uncover and eliminate conspiracies. “There is a control and surveillance hysteria that makes it difficult to conspire politically once morest Putin,” says Gressel. In addition, there is no immediate domestic political reason to “bring regarding changes beyond the murder of a tyrant”.
opportunity not there yet
In this regard, Gressel refers to the collapse of the Soviet Union: “The Soviet Union did not collapse directly because the Afghan war was messed up,” says the expert. However, when the coup once morest Gorbachev took place in 1991, parts of the Red Army refused to obey – “precisely because Afghanistan was such a defeat and they didn’t want to start another war of occupation in Poland or the Baltic States,” Gressel explains.
However, it was only with the coup that the opportunity arose to turn dissent into political action. “There is currently no reason for that,” said Gressel. Not yet anyway.
About the expert:
Gustav Gressel is an expert on security policy, military strategy and international relations. He completed officer training and studied political science at the University of Salzburg. Gressel focuses on Eastern Europe, Russia and the foreign policy of major powers.
Sources used:
- Infobae: Putin wants to renew Elvira Nabiullina as head of the Russian central bank. 03/18/2022
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Ex-Chancellor Schröder has been heavily criticized since the beginning of the war in Ukraine because of his friendship with Vladimir Putin and his work for Russian state-owned companies. Now he has commented on the reasons that he believes led to the attack by Russia. He blames the West for this. (Photo credits: picture alliance / Geisler-Fotopress | Christoph Hardt/Geisler-Fotopress)
