According to Cicero, it is expected that global emissions of CO2 from fossil sources will increase by 0.8 per cent this year.
– Many expect that global CO2 emissions will soon reach their peak, but the world is constantly finding new ways to burn more and more fossil energy. For the past ten years, the emissions should have peaked every single year, but that has not yet happened, says Glen Peters.
He is a senior researcher at Cicero and part of the leadership team in the Global Carbon Project, which has now launched its annual analysis of the development in global emissions of the greenhouse gas CO2.
Global CO2 emissions from fossil sources are now 8 percent higher than in 2015, when the Paris Agreement was adopted.
Emissions from coal, oil and gas are increasing
According to Cicero, emissions from coal, oil and gas continue to increase.
* Coal: Here, CO2 emissions are expected to increase by 0.2 per cent in 2024 to a new record level. The increase in emissions from coal comes from growth in India and China, combined with a small decrease in the USA and a large decrease in the EU.
* Oil: CO2 emissions are expected to increase by 0.9 per cent – primarily due to an increase in international aviation. CO2 emissions from oil have now reached the level from 2019, after a decrease during the corona pandemic in 2020.
* Gas: CO2 emissions from gas again have a strong growth of 2.4 percent and are back to the sustained growth of 2 percent per year that was seen before the corona pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The growth in emissions from gas in 2024 is driven by China and a number of smaller countries.
The trends will continue in 2024
The Global Carbon Project has not looked specifically at Norwegian emissions – but one can still say something about which way things may go in 2024.
Norway’s reported emissions decreased by 4.7 per cent in 2023, according to figures from Statistics Norway (SSB) – and the figures showed a decrease in emissions in the oil and gas sector, in industry, in road transport and in agriculture.
Some of these trends will continue in 2024, says Cicero senior researcher Robbie Andrew.
In the EU, CO2 emissions from fossil sources are expected to fall by 3.8 per cent this year. The decline comes after a larger decline of 8.4 per cent last year.
According to the analyses, emissions from coal have fallen sharply by 16 per cent, while the decrease for gas is 1.3 per cent. Emissions from oil are increasing somewhat.
Strong growth in renewable energy reduces emissions in the EU, in combination with weaker economic growth and high energy prices.
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**Interview with Glen Peters, Senior Researcher at Cicero**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us, Glen. You’re here to discuss the recent findings from Cicero regarding global CO2 emissions. Could you give us an overview of what the latest report highlights?
**Glen Peters:** Absolutely, thank you for having me. Our latest analysis reveals that global emissions of CO2 from fossil sources are projected to increase by 0.8% this year. This might come as a surprise, especially as many people anticipated that we would soon see a peak in these emissions. However, the reality is that the world continues to discover ways to burn more fossil energy.
**Interviewer:** You mentioned that emissions should have peaked over the past decade. Why do you think that hasn’t happened?
**Glen Peters:** It’s an ongoing issue. For the last ten years, we’ve expected emissions to peak, but each year we find ourselves in a situation where they continue to rise. The dependence on fossil fuels, particularly coal, oil, and gas, has not diminished as much as we would hope. In fact, global CO2 emissions are currently 8% higher than they were in 2015, the year the Paris Agreement was adopted.
**Interviewer:** Speaking of fossil fuels, you indicated that emissions from coal, oil, and gas are still increasing. Can you elaborate on that?
**Glen Peters:** Certainly. In particular, coal emissions are expected to rise by 0.2% next year, reaching a new record. This will primarily be driven by increased demand in certain regions, where coal remains a critical energy source. The challenge lies in transitioning away from these fuels and finding sustainable alternatives that can meet our energy needs without causing further harm to the climate.
**Interviewer:** Given these trends, what can be done to effectively reduce CO2 emissions moving forward?
**Glen Peters:** A multifaceted approach is essential. This includes investing in renewable energy, enhancing energy efficiency, and implementing stricter regulations on fossil fuel emissions. Collaboration across countries and sectors is crucial to drive down dependence on fossil fuels and to promote the innovation needed for a sustainable future.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Glen, for your insights. Despite the challenges, it’s evident that understanding and addressing these emissions is crucial for global climate goals.
**Glen Peters:** Thank you for having me. It’s vital that we all stay informed and engaged on this issue.