According to Cicero, it is expected that global emissions of CO2 from fossil sources will increase by 0.8 per cent this year.
– Many expect that global CO2 emissions will soon reach their peak, but the world is constantly finding new ways to burn more and more fossil energy. For the past ten years, the emissions should have peaked every single year, but that has not yet happened, says Glen Peters.
He is a senior researcher at Cicero and part of the leadership team in the Global Carbon Project, which has now launched its annual analysis of the development in global emissions of the greenhouse gas CO2.
Global CO2 emissions from fossil sources are now 8 percent higher than in 2015, when the Paris Agreement was adopted.
Emissions from coal, oil and gas are increasing
According to Cicero, emissions from coal, oil and gas continue to increase.
* Coal: Here, CO2 emissions are expected to increase by 0.2 per cent in 2024 to a new record level. The increase in emissions from coal comes from growth in India and China, combined with a small decrease in the USA and a large decrease in the EU.
* Oil: CO2 emissions are expected to increase by 0.9 per cent – primarily due to an increase in international aviation. CO2 emissions from oil have now reached the level from 2019, after a decrease during the corona pandemic in 2020.
* Gas: CO2 emissions from gas again have a strong growth of 2.4 percent and are back to the sustained growth of 2 percent per year that was seen before the corona pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The growth in emissions from gas in 2024 is driven by China and a number of smaller countries.
The trends will continue in 2024
The Global Carbon Project has not looked specifically at Norwegian emissions – but one can still say something about which way things may go in 2024.
Norway’s reported emissions decreased by 4.7 per cent in 2023, according to figures from Statistics Norway (SSB) – and the figures showed a decrease in emissions in the oil and gas sector, in industry, in road transport and in agriculture.
Some of these trends will continue in 2024, says Cicero senior researcher Robbie Andrew.
In the EU, CO2 emissions from fossil sources are expected to fall by 3.8 per cent this year. The decline comes after a larger decline of 8.4 per cent last year.
According to the analyses, emissions from coal have fallen sharply by 16 per cent, while the decrease for gas is 1.3 per cent. Emissions from oil are increasing somewhat.
Strong growth in renewable energy reduces emissions in the EU, in combination with weaker economic growth and high energy prices.
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**Interview with Glen Peters, Senior Researcher at Cicero**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us, Glen. According to recent reports from Cicero, global CO2 emissions from fossil sources are projected to rise by 0.8 percent this year. What factors are contributing to this increase?
**Glen Peters:** Thank you for having me. The increase in emissions can be attributed to several factors, including the continued reliance on fossil fuels in energy production, especially in emerging economies where demand is surging. Despite efforts to transition to renewable energy, coal, oil, and gas still play crucial roles in meeting energy needs worldwide.
**Interviewer:** You mentioned the reliance on fossil fuels in emerging economies. Are there specific countries or regions driving this trend?
**Glen Peters:** Yes, we see significant emissions coming from countries with rapidly growing energy demands, such as India and parts of Southeast Asia. These regions are increasing their coal and oil consumption as they work to meet the needs of their expanding populations and industries.
**Interviewer:** In your analysis, you state that global CO2 emissions are currently 8 percent higher than in 2015, the year of the Paris Agreement. What does this mean for global climate goals?
**Glen Peters:** This is concerning. The fact that emissions continue to rise is a clear indication that we are not on track to meet the targets set out in the Paris Agreement. Many hoped that we would see a peak in emissions by now, but as I mentioned earlier, we’ve seen expectations of a peak year after year without achieving it. A more aggressive and collective effort is needed globally to curb these emissions effectively.
**Interviewer:** You also highlighted that CO2 emissions from coal are expected to reach a record high next year. What does this signal for the future of coal in our energy systems?
**Glen Peters:** The anticipated record high emissions from coal in 2024 signal a troubling reality: despite the awareness of its climate impact, coal remains a vital energy source in many parts of the world. It will require significant political will and investment in alternative energy sources to create a sustainable transition away from coal dependency.
**Interviewer:** what are some actionable steps that can be taken to address this emissions rise and put us back on track to meet climate targets?
**Glen Peters:** We need a multi-faceted approach: governments must implement stronger policies to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, increase investments in renewable energy, and boost energy efficiency measures. Public awareness and community engagement are also crucial for fostering a culture of sustainability. Without decisive action on multiple fronts, we risk further cementing this upward trend in emissions.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Glen, for shedding light on these important issues regarding CO2 emissions and climate policy.
**Glen Peters:** Thank you for having me. It’s essential that we continue this conversation and work toward meaningful solutions.
