2023-07-19 12:01:00
How will the three regions of the country behave over the next five years on the front of economic activity? This is the question that the Federal Planning Bureau and the regional statistical institutes (IBSA, Statistiek Vlaanderen and Iweps) have tackled, in the Regional Economic Outlook 2023-2028 which they published on Tuesday.
We learn that economic activity in Flanders has been less affected by the crises (health and economic) of recent years than in Brussels and Wallonia. Similarly, growth should remain more sustained in Flanders. In 2023, the Walloon economy will continue to grow less quickly (0.9%) than that of Flanders (1.4%) and Brussels (1.3%). During the period 2024-2028, the Flemish economy would grow by 1.6% per year on average, while economic growth would stand at 1.3% in Wallonia and 1.1% in Brussels.
A history of shuttles
A strong increase in regional employment rates is also expected. Over the period 2023-2028, domestic employment should increase, on average, by 0.5% per year in Brussels, 0.7% in Wallonia and 1.0% in Flanders.
The employment of Brussels residents should however increase more strongly than that of Walloon and Flemish residents (1.3% per year once morest, respectively, 0.7% and 0.9%). For what ? In particular due to the evolution of commuter flows. Indeed, shuttles from Brussels to Flanders will continue to increase significantly in the medium term, even more than those from Wallonia to Flanders. In addition, incoming shuttles to Brussels from Flanders and Wallonia would stagnate, so that the share of Brussels residents in internal Brussels employment would continue to increase.
In Belgium, the employment rate of 55-64 year olds has more than doubled since 2000
Purchasing power on the rise
Given the slightly slower growth of the active population (i.e. the population entering the labor market and comprising all workers and job seekers) in Brussels than in the two other regions, the unemployment rate in Brussels should continue to fall significantly throughout the period 2024-2028 (-2.2 percentage points cumulatively), settling in 2028 at the same level as in Wallonia (11.8% ). The employment rate would increase fastest in Brussels, where it would reach 68.9% in 2028, compared to 79.3% in Flanders and 68.1% in Wallonia.
Oil, gas, electricity… The purchasing power of Belgians in terms of energy is greater than in 1990
Finally, the study points to the fact that household purchasing power is holding up well in the three regions. In 2022, historically high inflation weighed heavily on purchasing power, with the indexation of wages and social benefits taking place with some delay. Purchasing power would have fallen by 2.3% in Flanders, 1.9% in Wallonia and 1.8% in Brussels. In 2023, on the other hand, indexations greatly exceed inflation, which is falling. This translates into a strong increase in purchasing power which, in the three regions, would approach the national average (4.0%). In 2024, the growth in purchasing power should slow down, in particular due to the disappearance of aid relating to the energy bill. But during the period 2025-2028, the purchasing power of Brussels households would increase by 1.5% per year on average, and that of Flemish and Walloon households by 1.2%.
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