While the Red Sox aren’t favored to sign any single player, they boast the third-best odds or better for three of the top-tier free agents this offseason.
Max Fried is one of the top free-agent pitchers this offseason. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
With the onset of this offseason’s free agency period, the Red Sox are anticipated to actively engage in the market. Oddsmakers also foresee their involvement, positioning Boston among the contenders for several elite free agents this offseason at DraftKings Sportsbook. While the Red Sox are not leading the odds for any specific player, they rank third or better in the betting lines for three significant free agents.
As MLB free agency got underway on Monday, it may take several weeks before we can determine if the betting odds serve as a reliable indicator of offseason movements. However, these odds do shed light on which teams are vying for the top talent available. Therefore, let’s delve into the Red Sox’ odds of signing each major free agent.
Juan Soto
Red Sox’ odds to sign Soto: +2500
Soto emerges as the premier target on this offseason’s free-agent landscape. However, he is also viewed as a longshot for Boston, with the team’s odds ranking eighth among all contenders for his signature. They trail behind the expected frontrunners, the Yankees (-130) and Mets (+160), as well as an “any other team” category listed with +900 odds.
The relative pessimism regarding the Red Sox’s chances of signing Soto can be attributed to their current surplus of left-handed hitting outfielders, including Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu, coupled with the presence of highly regarded prospect Roman Anthony. Moreover, Boston has pivotal needs to address this offseason, such as enhancing their starting pitching rotation or acquiring a powerful right-handed bat.
Furthermore, Soto is projected to secure a monumental contract, with estimates surpassing $600 million. This likely explains why teams with historically high payrolls, who are better positioned financially, are considered favorites to land him.
Alex Bregman
Red Sox’ odds to sign Bregman: +950
While the Red Sox boast better odds of signing Bregman than Soto, they remain a relative longshot in the broader landscape of potential suitors. Bregman’s odds place Boston eighth in the ranking, significantly behind the Astros, who hold the best chance at +380.
Pursuing Bregman would necessitate adjustments within Boston’s infield. With Rafael Devers firmly set at third base, the Red Sox may consider shifting Devers to first base or even trading first baseman Triston Casas to address pitching needs. Notably, Bregman’s agent recently disclosed that the player is open to transitioning to second base, indicating potential flexibility.
As the Red Sox approach the 2025 season, they are still assessing their second base situation. Players like Vaughn Grissom and David Hamilton are among those competing for the position, while promising prospect Kristian Campbell could emerge as a contender, enabling Boston to acquire Bregman without disrupting their corner infield setup.
Blake Snell
Red Sox’ odds to sign Snell: +600
The Red Sox hold the third-best odds to secure Snell, trailing only the equally favored Padres and Mets, both sitting at +550. Boston’s urgent need for a top-of-the-rotation pitcher is glaringly evident, particularly after so many right-handed pitchers dominated the starting lineup last season.
Craig Breslow, the Red Sox chief baseball officer, explicitly acknowledged the team’s requirement for a leading pitcher in the rotation. He stated, “We have lofty goals. We know we need to raise the ceiling of the rotation. I think there are a lot of ways to do that, but we’re going to be really, really open-minded.”
Snell, a two-time Cy Young Award winner, would perfectly fit this profile. After a rocky start with the Giants in 2024, he rebounded to finish strong, posting a 5-0 record with an impressive 1.23 ERA in his last 14 starts.
Despite the favorable odds, the Red Sox had not been notably linked to Snell during last offseason’s free agency period. He eventually signed shortly before the season commenced, with whispers suggesting he preferred teams on the West Coast, given his roots in Washington.
Corbin Burnes
Red Sox’ odds to sign Burnes: +500
DraftKings considers Burnes the most likely free agent to join the Red Sox. At +500, Boston holds the second-best odds to sign him, narrowly behind the New York Mets, who are at +450.
Burnes stands out as a premier pitcher in this offseason’s free-agent pool. In his recent season with the Orioles, the 30-year-old ace notched a compelling 15-9 record with a 2.92 ERA and achieved his fourth All-Star selection. Previously with the Brewers, he had also been recognized as a three-time All-Star and claimed the NL Cy Young Award in 2021.
Given Burnes’s status as a top commodity, he is not expected to come at a bargain. Projections suggest Burnes could command a contract worth at least $200 million, with expectations like Jim Bowden of The Athletic forecasting a seven-year deal exceeding $247 million.
Should the Red Sox successfully sign Burnes, they may face a challenge regarding their rotation balance, as it remains heavily right-handed-dominated. Interestingly, Burnes performed relatively well against AL East contenders last season, with the Red Sox being the only team within the division against whom he did not maintain a sub-2.50 ERA. This performance may explain why two of MLB Trade Rumors’ writers predicted a signing between Burnes and the Red Sox before the start of the offseason.
Max Fried
Red Sox’ odds to sign Fried: +600
Similar to Snell and Burnes, the Red Sox are among the frontrunners vying for Fried’s services, with their odds at +600, positioned directly behind the Cubs at +500 and the Dodgers at +550.
This offseason, Boston has already been mentioned in connection with Fried as a serious contender, alongside Baltimore and Toronto, as teams fully committed to courting the talented lefty, according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman.
The left-handed Fried has consistently demonstrated top-tier performance in the league, closing the 2024 season with an 11-10 record and a commendable 3.25 ERA.
Although there are no significant ties linking Fried and Boston directly, he does share a notable relationship with a current Red Sox player. He and Lucas Giolito were teammates during their high school years at Harvard-Westlake. Adding to the speculation, Fried attended Game 1 of the World Series, where he was seen cheering for his former high school peer Jack Flaherty, fuelling further rumors about a potential move to Boston.
Pete Alonso
Red Sox’ odds to sign Alonso: +800
Boston also stands a substantial chance of signing Alonso, evidenced by their +800 odds, which positions them fifth among all teams, with Washington leading the way at +450.
However, just as with Bregman, pursuing Alonso poses logistical challenges for the Red Sox, primarily due to a lack of positional need. They may need to shift Casas or consider moving Masataka Yoshida to optimize flexibility at designated hitter and create space at first base.
Nonetheless, Alonso’s powerful bat could greatly benefit the Red Sox lineup. Renowned as one of the game’s premier power hitters, he has consistently hit at least 30 home runs in most seasons, excluding the COVID-shortened season. In the previous season, he maintained a .240 batting average while smashing 34 home runs.
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**Interview with MLB Analyst Jamie Carter on Red Sox Free Agency Prospects**
**Editor:** We’re joined today by MLB analyst Jamie Carter to discuss the Boston Red Sox’s prospects in this year’s free agency. Jamie, the odds suggest that while the Red Sox might not be the favorites to sign any player, they hold third-best or better odds for several top-tier free agents. What does that indicate about their strategy this offseason?
**Jamie Carter:** Thanks for having me! It seems the Red Sox are positioning themselves to be active players in free agency without necessarily putting all their eggs in one basket. The fact that they have favorable odds for players like Blake Snell and Corbin Burnes suggests they’re looking to strengthen their rotation significantly, which has been a critical need for them.
**Editor:** Speaking of significant needs, the Red Sox have shown interest in pitchers. Can you elaborate on the odds for signing Max Fried vs. Blake Snell?
**Jamie Carter:** Absolutely. Both Fried and Snell are at +600, which is quite strong, indicating that the Red Sox are legitimate contenders for either. Fried’s left-handedness could potentially balance out a predominantly right-handed rotation, while Snell’s recent performance has been stellar. It’s interesting to note that the scouting reports suggest the Red Sox are seriously pursuing Fried, which could signal a preference on their part.
**Editor:** Besides pitching, the Red Sox are connected to some big-name hitters. Let’s talk about Juan Soto and Alex Bregman. What are their odds, and do you think the Sox should focus on one of them?
**Jamie Carter:** Juan Soto is indeed the jewel of this offseason, but the Red Sox are long shots at +2500, which reflects their less-than-ideal situation with left-handed outfielders already in the mix. Meanwhile, they have a better shot at Bregman with odds of +950. However, pursuing Bregman could present issues in the infield unless they make some strategic moves regarding Rafael Devers and Triston Casas. In my opinion, they should prioritize pitching first, given their glaring rotation needs.
**Editor:** Lastly, Corbin Burnes seems to be considered the most likely to join the Red Sox based on the odds. What makes him such an appealing target for Boston?
**Jamie Carter:** Burnes is an elite pitcher with a proven track record, having recently been an All-Star and even winning a Cy Young Award. The Red Sox are clearly in need of a game-changer in their starting lineup, and Burnes could fill that role perfectly. With projected contracts around $200 million, it would be a significant investment, but if they aim to compete next season, securing a pitcher of Burnes’ caliber could be a game-changer for them.
**Editor:** Thank you, Jamie, for your insights on the Red Sox’s free agency options. It will be interesting to see how this offseason unfolds for them!
**Jamie Carter:** My pleasure! Excited to see what happens.