Never seen. In November, the French trade deficit – when imports are greater than exports – reached 9 billion euros, according to the monthly customs report. A record dive. By comparison, in January 2021, the country’s monthly deficit was 4.5 billion.
The cumulative deficit over 12 months amounts to 77.6 billion euros, “or 2.6 billion more than the record annual deficit of 2011”, note the Customs in their analysis published last Friday. And it should be even higher for the whole of 2021, the figures for which are expected in early February.
The effect of Covid-19
Several factors explain this increasingly marked difference between imports and exports by France. First, the economic recovery. There is nothing abnormal there, according to Bruno Tinel, economist and lecturer at the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne. “When there is a recovery, you need more raw materials and manufactured goods. However, we do not necessarily manufacture them (on the territory), ”he begins. In their report, the Customs also note that there has been a “dynamic growth in gas and oil supplies”.
Another factor, which is also “probably not sustainable” in the eyes of the economist: the rise in the prices of raw materials, “whether they are agricultural or not”. Here once more, the health crisis is not for nothing. “This is the result of the lowering of the sails during the pandemic”, specifies Bruno Tinel. “And as one is an importer and not a producer, one suffers the full brunt of the rise in prices”, completes for his part Mathieu Plane, economist at the OFCE (French Observatory of Economic Conjunctures). Proof of this is that since the start of 2021, imports from France “have only increased by 2.6%” in volume, but by “20.1% in value”, report Customs.
Not to mention that the way the French consume changed during the Covid-19. Consumption of manufactured goods – excluding automobiles – “is sustained”, notes Mathieu Plane, who specifies that “the most dynamic sector is household equipment, which has increased by 10% compared to its level of before crisis ”. However, goods in this category come mainly from imports. “Conversely, the consumption of services, which requires little or no imports has decreased”, continues the economist.
Hard blow for exports
If, faced with the increase in imports, exports have also increased, their pace is much slower, underlines the Customs report. This therefore does not allow a return to a favorable trade balance. And here once more, the health crisis is not completely innocent. Because, “our specialty is aeronautics and aerospace”, describes Mathieu Plane. Sectors hard marked by the Covid-19. Just like the automobile, “which has difficulty restarting under the effect of the pandemic but also of the transformation of modes of transport”, continues the savings of the OFCE.
For him, a high trade deficit over the long term represents both an economic stake – on the issue of jobs in particular – but also a strategic one: “our dependence on the outside shows a certain weakness”, we say. – he know, “the French productive fabric cannot meet part of the demand”, sums up Mathieu Plane. “The question is how long this situation can last”, asks Bruno Tinel for his part. “Our partners might, for example, end up imposing on us an economic adjustment program, as was the case for Greece”, estimates the lecturer, “it is the germ of a future crisis in the euro zone “, He fears.
Since there is currently “a whole set of manufactured products that we no longer manufacture” – the country having “privileged the tertiary sector”, recalls the economist Bruno Tinel – reindustrialisation would make it possible to re-establish a certain trade balance. “We are starting to talk regarding industrial revival, but even if measures were taken, they would not have visible effects for five to 10 years,” he said. “Reindustrialisation does not happen overnight”, abounds for his part Mathieu Plane, who recalls that there have been “efforts to reduce corporate taxation” but that we do not see “really the result “. For him, the question of industrial strategy should therefore arise for the one who will be elected at the head of the country next April.
