2023-05-18 04:30:00
The period 2023-2027 will almost certainly be the hottest on record on Earth, under the combined effect of greenhouse gases and the El Niño weather phenomenon, which are driving up temperatures, the Meteorological Organization warned on Wednesday. World (WMO).
In addition, global temperatures are expected to soon exceed the most ambitious goal of the Paris Climate Agreement, adds the UN institution.
“There is a 98% chance that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record,” the WMO said. And it estimates a 66% chance that the average annual global surface temperature will rise 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years.
The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to keep global average temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels from 1850 to 1900, and if possible to 1.5°C above those same levels.
The data published on Wednesday “does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C threshold of the Paris Agreement, which refers to long-term warming over many years”, underlined the secretary general of WMO, Petteri Taalas, quoted in a press release.
“However, the WMO is sounding the alarm by announcing that the 1.5°C threshold will be temporarily crossed, and this, more and more frequently”, he underlined. “An El Niño episode should develop in the coming months. Coupled with human-induced climate change, it will drive global temperatures to unprecedented levels,” said the climate scientist.
And to leave no illusions regarding the seriousness of the situation, the Finn insisted on the need to prepare because “the repercussions on health, food safety, water management and the environment will be considerable”.
The Boy and the Girl
El Niño is a natural weather phenomenon generally associated with rising temperatures, increased drought in some parts of the world, and heavy rains in others. It last occurred in 2018-2019 and gave way to a particularly long episode – almost three years – of La Niña, which causes the opposite effects, including a drop in temperatures.
In early May, the WMO estimated that there was a 60% chance of El Niño developing by the end of July and an 80% chance by the end of September. As a general rule, this weather phenomenon causes global temperatures to rise in the year following its appearance, or 2024 for this cycle.
Wednesday’s forecast shows that “we have not been able to limit warming so far and we are still moving in the wrong direction,” Taalas told a news conference. He estimates that it might take until the 2060s to gradually halt the negative trend and keep things from getting worse.
Despite the moderating effect of La Niña, the past eight years have been the warmest on record, and 2016 holds the crown.
Greenhouse gases — the three main ones are CO2, methane and nitrous oxide — which are at record levels in the atmosphere, trapping heat and raising temperatures. “Returning to a normal level might even take thousands of years,” Taalas said.
“No one will be spared”
“It will be a sad day when we pass 1.5C, but that’s no reason to give up,” said Leon Hermanson of Britain’s national weather service, the Met Office, WMO’s lead center on annual to decadal climate forecasts.
“We must emit as few greenhouse gases as possible, any reduction in emissions will reduce global warming”, explains the meteorologist, stressing that “no one will be spared by these changes”, which are already causing disasters and population displacements.
In addition, predictions of extreme weather events are “still a little unknown”, but it is through these extremes that the impacts of climate change are felt.
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