2023-12-27 16:01:57
«It is the journalists who make the market», confides a real estate agent in Angers (49). “Since they read or heard that banks are lowering their rates, buyers are coming back“, he rejoices. This is the case of Louis, 41, who decided to take the plunge and obtained a 25-year mortgage at just under 4%. “In a year or two, I think rates will have fallen enough. It will be time for me to renegotiate“, he says. Others like Sophie and Christophe, in their thirties, prefer to wait until “rates fall even more“. With the risk that the competition will be even stronger. In short, the mood on the buyer side is mixed.
On the other hand, banks are unanimous: the time has come to win over new customers. “Banks have restored their margins and want to reopen the floodgates to prospects and even rental investors. The 10-year OAT – indicator that banks consult to set their credit rates – fell back below 2.5%. Unheard of for over a year, at a time when banks were still lending at 2.2%. Obviously this motivates to lower rates», Explains Sandrine Allonier, from Vousfinancer, real estate loan broker. For the moment, these are moderate declines but should be highlighted because they trigger a new cycle. “In December, a third of our banking partners reduced their ratesunderlines Cécile Roquelaure, director of studies at Empruntis. This is an excellent signal for the January recovery!»
Three drops in one month at SG
In one month, Société Générale lowered its rates (excluding insurance and fees) from 4.35% to 3.95% over 20 years for the best profiles (more than 8,000 euros per month for two). Which is equivalent to around forty euros less per month to repay to the bank for a loan of 200,000 euros. Not to mention the additional discount that borrowers can obtain. Because this rate of 3.95% is understood before negotiations. For less well-off households, you will probably have to wait until next summer. Currently, they must borrow for less than 20 years to obtain a lower rate of 4%.
However, the easing of mortgage rates is underway. “Large national banks are starting to initiate cuts of 0.2 or 0.3 points», Says Maël Bernier, from Meilleurtaux, real estate loan broker. It remains to be seen whether the others will follow. “The banks will agree to grant small rate cuts to revive demand but not significant cuts, at least before the summer, so as not to cut into their margins.», deciphers Sandrine Allonier who affirms that the banks want to increase the production of real estate loans by 10% in 2024. Excessive rate cuts could also push prices up again – a scenario in which the French believe -, by increasing demand . Such an outburst would not be welcome for a market which is trying to turn things around at the end of the year. A priori it does not seem possible: the trend is rather towards a fall – certainly moderate for the moment – in real estate prices which should accelerate in 2024. Good news for households who can also count on a salary increase next year.
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