2023-11-16 16:56:00
The figures for new housing fall from Charybdis to Scylla. According to the latest figures from the Ministry of Ecological Transition and Territorial Cohesion published on November 15, the number of reservations with real estate developers stands at 16,201 in the third quarter of 2023. A drop of 39.3% compared to the same period in 2022. Worse, the number of homes put up for sale follows the same trend: 19,371 between July 1 and September 30, 2023. That is a drop of 34.9% compared to the third quarter of 2022.
Real estate: reservations for new housing continue to plummet
A double collapse which has persisted for six quarters already and which does not seem to be getting better. On the morning of November 16, the federation of real estate developers (FPI) announced that only 27,500 new housing units had been started in the third quarter of 2023. So much so that sales decreased by 30.6% compared to the same period in 2022: – 36.5% to owner-occupiers and even – 58.6% to individual investors.
“The buyer withdrawal rate is 50%, so much so that if the trend continues, fewer than 90,000 new homes will be sold in 2023,” Pascal Boulanger, president of the FPI, told La Tribune.
Over the first nine months of this year, only 65,000 accommodations were in fact reserved compared to 92,000 over the same period in 2022, 112,000 for the whole of 2021 in post-health crisis recovery and 88,000 in 2020 in the midst of Covid. Data far from the euphoria of the years 2017-2018-2019 which had reached 115,000 reservations on average.
Demand and supply of new housing are down
Today, demand is not there if only because buyers have limited purchasing power due to inflation, not to mention interest rates which are close to 5%. Supply also poses a problem since banks are reluctant to finance the construction of new housing, testifies the president of the Federation of Real Estate Developers.
Fifteen months ago, when interest rates were still low, financial institutions required professionals to make 40% of housing reservations before taking out their checkbook. From now on, banks have raised their conditions and require 50% reservations for new housing before financing the real estate transaction. So much so that construction sites are falling behind schedule and putative buyers are withdrawing.
“It’s the snake that bites its own tail,” summarizes, concisely, Pascal Boulanger.
From mid-May, the State therefore asked the two largest housing producers to come to the rescue of real estate developers. CDC Habitat, the subsidiary of the Caisse des Dépôts group, signed a check for 3.5 billion euros to order 17,000 new homes from developers. Followed by Action Logement, the joint organization administered by unions and employers, which is committed to acquiring 30,000 new housing units.
“This does not solve the problem: we sell our homes at zero margin or even at negative margin,” assures, once more, the president of the FPI.
Borne announced a new roadmap to Dunkirk
It prevents. Traveling this followingnoon to Dunkirk, a town where Housing Minister Patrice Vergriete was mayor until recently, Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne presented a new government roadmap in this area. She thus announced that discussions would be initiated with a view to launching a second plan to buy back housing from developers. ” Who are the others ? The real estate companies don’t really want to…”, believes, on the contrary, Pascal Boulanger, spokesperson for new housing professionals.
Housing crisis: Elisabeth Borne details her action plan
The Matignon tenant also promised a commitment from the State and Caisse des Dépôts of 500 million euros for the construction of intermediate rental housing (LLI). A financial gesture that it also expects from institutional investors – insurance companies, savings funds, etc. – to arrive, in total, at 30,000 new homes each year. That is to say a doubling of the current supply by 2026.
“Institutional investors are very good, but individual investors, who represent 50% of our buyers, are forgotten,” regrets Pascal Boulanger, president of the Federation of Real Estate Developers.
These intermediate rental housing units (LLI), which make it possible to house households too rich for social housing and too poor for free housing, have been the government’s priority since the National Refoundation Council (CNR) dedicated to housing. At the end of the latter at the beginning of June, Elisabeth Borne had already communicated to this effect, taking up President Macron’s statements. In Challenges, the head of state had invited “look at how to develop many more LLIs to lower prices, because the housing crisis is there”.
Housing crisis: a plan that solves nothing
6 million French people will be able to benefit from a PTZ in 2025
Elisabeth Borne also promised the production of 110,000 social housing units in 2024, as well as improving access to zero-interest loans (PTZ) as part of the 2024 finance law. From next year, 6 million French people may thus be eligible. “ PTZ only represents 10% of our activity », delays Pascal Boulanger, the president of the promoters.
Real estate: deputies are divided on the refocusing of the zero-rate loan (PTZ), even if increased
The head of government has once more committed to the construction of 35,000 additional student accommodations by 2027, in addition to the 35,000 already committed, the terms of which will be specified in a plan presented at the end of November by her ministers Sylvie Retailleau (Education higher) and Patrice Vergriete (Housing).
Furthermore, the latter’s services will select, by January 2024, twenty territories which will commit to « accelerate » their development operations to bring out of the ground, within three years, around 1,500 housing units each, or 30,000 housing units in total. The communities concerned will be helped and exemptions made possible.
Finally, a mission on rental taxation has also been entrusted to two deputies from the presidential majority – Annaïg Le Meur (Finistère, Renaissance) and Marina Ferrari (Savoie, MoDem) – to promote long-term rentals. Yet another parliamentary mission that Housing Minister Patrice Vergriete had already announced in mid-October… to the French Building Federation.
Rental taxation: will the owner soon have “micro-enterprise” status?
The latter has his work cut out for him: he must present a bill on substandard housing and degraded condominiums at the start of next year, before a bill on the decentralization of local housing policies in spring 2024. .
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