With the possibility of default of bond issuers this year, experts believe that there may be a mass default if there is no strong support measure from the Government.
At the seminar “Identifying 2023: New investment opportunities in a new environment” organized by the Investment Newspaper on February 7, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, an economist, said that following more than a month of the first year, the stock market has Stocks, real estate, bonds have not shown any signs of recovery.
According to him, the real estate market continues to freeze, especially in the field of corporate bonds. Than 300,000 billion VND bonds will come due this year, of which corporate bonds and real estate account for one-third.
“If the issuer is not able to repay the debt, there will be a default, even leading to a mass default if the Government does not take strong measures to support real estate companies,” he said. .
This expert believes that this year, real estate will continue to be quiet in the first quarter, investors still choose to wait and observe instead of participating in the market.
Similarly, Ms. Hoang Nguyet Minh, Senior Director of Commercial Leasing Division of Savills Hanoi, also said that the last 6 months of 2022 have created a negative sentiment for the whole market, including businesses and investors. private private.
“The residential real estate project segment is the most affected segment in the market today. However, other product lines such as offices are still being rented very well, retail has started to recover following Covid- 19,” she said.
According to her, foreign brands are constantly pouring money to develop the Vietnamese market. She predicts that within the next 1-3 years, Vietnam’s retail market can keep up with the growth rate of Bangkok (Thailand).
“Average retail product prices are now starting to be on par with this market while Bangkok is the leading retail market in Southeast Asia,” said Ms. Minh.
| PROFIT OF MANY HUGE REAL ESTATE ENTERPRISE REDUCES STRONGLY IN 2022 | |||||||
| Labels | Vinhomes | Novaland | Thrive | Green Land | Nam Long | Khang Dien | |
| Year 2021 | billions dong | 38948 | 3455 | 1861 | 1595 | 1478 | 1205 |
| 2022 | 29000 | 2293 | 1170 | 469 | 866 | 1081 |
Regarding securities, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu believes that the market will continue to slow down and not recover in the first half of this year. Half a year later, the market can recover when the US controls inflation and stops raising interest rates. In the Vietnamese market, the Government has more measures to support the market.
“The fact that the VN-Index can return to the 1,500 mark like last year may not happen,” he stated.
In the same view, Mr. Le Duc Khanh, Director of Analysis – Director of Investment Capacity Development at VPS Securities Joint Stock Company, also said that when interest rates are high, cash flow in the stock market is difficult to return. regarding the peak period such as the period 2020-2021.
“Accordingly, this period and in the first half of this year, the market is accumulating, creating small fluctuations. This is the time for individual stocks such as construction groups, public investment, banks… “, said Khanh.
Meanwhile, Mr. Quan Duc Hoang, Chairman of A+ Fund’s Members’ Council, said that this is the time to buy in the stock market, but it is necessary to be selective. “In nearly 30 years, I have never felt the opportunity in Vietnam as great as now,” he affirmed.
According to Mr. Hoang, the most important thing for individual investors is psychology, this is what adjusts the stock market, because basically Vietnamese businesses are still doing quite well.