2024-05-06 08:50:00
(AOF) – “In a context of re-acceleration in American inflation, the markets have adjusted down the forecasts for interest rate cuts by all the major central banks”, emphasizes Vincent Chaigneau, research director at Generali Investments. The latter considers that the start of Fed easing will be postponed until September, but that it will not be cancelled. “A first rate cut by the ECB is still planned for June, followed by cuts, at least quarterly,” he adds.
Vincent Chaigneau acknowledges the existence of a dual risk to short-term returns, with the resilience of the US economy and price stability as the most imminent risks. “But with a lot of bad news on inflation now priced in and 5-year and 3-month yields close to 4%, we think a long and cautious duration is useful,” he argues.
Before we conclude: “In the context of a tug-of-war between high valuations and increased uncertainty on the one hand, and the green thrusts of the global economy on the other, we maintain an overexposure to IG credit to benefit from risk On the on the other hand, we maintain a neutral position on shares and high returns, given the high risk of further setbacks.
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