For the first time, in the RCN tracking the candidate Gustavo Petro take the lead over your rival Rodolfo Hernandez in the race to the Casa de Nariño in Colombia. The leader of the Historical Pact marks 47.8% over the engineer who shows 47.1%. Although there is a technical tie, the trend is favorable for the senator, who has been on the rise while the former mayor of Bucaramanga is on the decline in this measurement carried out by the firm GAD3 Colombia SAS.
The measurement disclosed today also highlights that Petro takes the lead thanks, in part, to the women’s vote. When asked who they would vote for in the elections on Sunday, June 19, 47% responded that they would vote for the candidate from the left, while 46% would vote for the candidate from the left. Anti-Corruption Leaders League.
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In this item is where Hernandez shows a huge fall. Compared to the tracking of the same firm on June 1, Petro closed the distance and passed him.
Rodolfo Hernandez has lost nine points from women in one week and regarding 30 points from Sergio Fajardo’s center votes.
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At that time, the study said that a possible triumph of Rodolfo women would give it to him, since 55.7% of them would vote for him while only 40.1% would vote for him. Petro.
In this measurement, regarding the women’s vote, the difference in favor of Hernández it was 11.6%. In today’s, Petro ahead by 1%.
In Colombia there are 39,002,239 people authorized to vote throughout the country. The majority, 20,111,908, are women. Men are 18,890,331. The mobilization of the female vote is fundamental in this definition.
The other noteworthy aspect of today’s tracking is the question of who do you think will be the president of Colombia.
When the first measurement was made, 51.8% believed that it would be Hernández compared to 40.4% who considered that it would be Petro.
Now things are reversed at this point. 46.4% answered that they believe that Petro He will be the new head of state for the period 2022-2026. While 44.8% consider that it will be Hernández.
Technical sheet of the RCN Tracking
– Legal entity that carried it out: GAD3 Colombia SAS – Legal entity that entrusted it: RCN Televisión SA
– Funding source: RCN Televisión SA
– Type of sample and procedure used to select the sample units:
– Random selection of interviewees with daily compliance with quotas by sex and age and geographical quotas. Proportional allocation in the country as a whole. (See table on geographical distribution of the sample).
– Sample size: Total: 4,041 according to the following waves: 30/31-May: 1,200; Jun-1: 556; Jun-2: 553; June 3: 531, June 4: 400, June 6: 401 and June 7: 400.
– Subject of study: Intention to vote for the second round of the presidential elections in Colombia 2022
– Specific questions that were formulated: 14 (the complete form with the complete answers is attached)
– Characters who were investigated: Presidential candidates for the second round- Colombia 2022: Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernández.
– Area (geographic universe and population universe): National scope. Residents in Colombia with the right to vote.
– Technique used for the selection of the sample: Computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) to cell phones in Colombia.- Date of collection: May 30 to June 7, 2022, ai
– Margin of error: ± 1.6% (n=4,041) for a degree of confidence of 95.5% (two sigma) and in the most unfavorable hypothesis of=0.5 in the assumption of simple random sampling.
– Statistician who designed the research: Doctor Narciso Michavila Núñez
