This extensive process is described by analysts as a great choice. Multiple resources are expected to emerge at different stages of the election, with possible scenarios that might vary between high, medium and low.
These future decisions and possible resolutions will be under the direction of the presiding judge Néster Mauricio Vásquez Pimentel, who as of today assumes direction of the highest constitutional court.
What is coming right now?
Marielos Fuentes, from Guatemala Visible, offered a short-term perspective on the scope of CC. According to her, the president of Congress expressed doubts regarding the period to be able to convene, given that there is a disagreement among jurists regarding whether to use the date indicated by the Judicial Career or the Law of Nomination Commissions.
In this difference of opinions, as on other occasions, a consultation will be raised to the CC to achieve greater certainty. “They are going to try in every way to avoid having appeals in any of the decisions made before or during the Nomination Commissions so as not to repeat the setbacks of the past, when an appeal presented facilitated the Congress of the Republic’s delay and lack of certainty regarding how to proceed,” he noted.
This situation is presented as a window of opportunity to have certainty that allows working safely. In the previous months, the CC provided a very prudent path to preserve the results of the general election and continue the process as is. “I would have a positive hope in this process, that if participation is necessary, it will be for the better,” she expressed.
Scenarios
Regarding the possible impact on the choice of courts, Fuentes says that the best scenario is that there is no need to make requests to the Constitutional Court; but the most complicated arises when resources and protections begin to be presented. “Honestly, it is something that we are going to have, and unfortunately it has occurred in recent times with this type of setbacks,” he explains.
“Honestly, it is something that we are going to have, and unfortunately it has occurred in recent times with this type of setbacks.”
Marielos Fuentes, Guatemala Visible
To illustrate, it mentions that if any candidate does not complete the application required by the Nomination Commission, does not complete it or does not qualify for any reason, they immediately file an amparo because they are being deprived of the right to be elected. “I think we are surely going to see that, and I hope they are not so numerous, but we are going to see many applicants and probably actors who will manifest themselves through resources that will have to be resolved in the CC, and there we hope that they will be consistent.” to the law as it should be.”
Fuentes considers that the worst scenario is that the process gets bogged down and circumstances arise that delay the deadlines, which must be respected. “There are applicants who are withdrawn from the process and present their resources. Everything has to follow its legal process; Some are left out, but there are some who return to the process, although they are not voted on among other mechanisms. Without a doubt, we must be attentive to how they are going to fail, whether or not they continue in the election, they delay it, something that we have seen repeatedly and I think we are going to see it once more,” he considered.
Finally, one of the advantages is that many of the commissioners who have been in other processes have many concerns in the sense of working cautiously in anticipation of situations.
One of the concerns for this week will be the call date.
Respect deadlines
The former attorney general, Acisclo Valladares Molina, pointed out that the change in the president of the CC will not imply a change in his actions and will maintain the same line as until now. He indicated that it is very likely that multiple appeals will be presented during the CSJ magistrate election process, as has happened in the past. “
My position is that constitutional deadlines must be respected. It is a vice and we are all to blame for not respecting deadlines. The Attorney General, the attorney general and the judges of the CSJ have a deadline that must be respected, and when their term ends, they must leave office,” he emphasized. Thus, when this does not occur, the system of checks and balances in the exercise of power is corrupted.
Like Fuentes, Valladares Molina considers that there will be a load of appeals that will be presented, but it is crucial that this does not affect the transmission or the dates on which the deadlines must be respected, and that the magistrates take office on the day the period ends. constitutional.
Avoid judicialization
The constitutional lawyer, Édgar Ortiz, reiterated that this will be the election of the year for the CSJ, and the arrival of the presiding judge Vásquez Pimentel, elected by the College of Lawyers and Notaries of Guatemala, should improve compared to the previous three, which had problems . It is expected that there will be no judicialization, which is a common concern.
Ortiz reiterated that, although the CC has always been used, especially for the inclusion of some candidates, especially in the Appeals Chambers where there are many candidates and positions to choose from and where protections often arise, the CC is expected to respect the decisions of the Nomination Commission. If there is any violation of rights, we must intervene, but hopefully the election will not be paralyzed, he concluded.
Political vision
Independent political scientist Douglas González stated that there are two forces in conflict: those that advocate for change and demand a more aggressive role from President Bernardo Arévalo to push it, and the conservative forces of the regime of privileges and corruption left by former president Alejandro Giammattei.
When commenting on the scenario of the protections and resources that will reach the Constitutional Court in a process of electing magistrates, he highlighted these contrasts. In his opinion, the current CC has been more inclined to favor the success of Arévalo and his bench in the Congress of the Republic, so an active CC might be expected to guarantee that there are no changes in the direction taken by the CSJ.
However, the reaction of the Executive and the official party, Movimiento Semilla, to influence the composition of the new CSJ remains to be seen, as well as the role that diplomatic pressure from the US might play. This might make the CC Modify your position and stop being a containment dam for the Arévalo government. For the moment, the strength of the old regime has the upper hand, he concluded.
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