(US dollar indexThe main reason for the strength isEUR,noJapanese Yenweak; currentlyJapanese YenDevaluation will not trigger a global financial crisis.unlessEURdepreciate to 1 EURExchange less than 0.8 US dollars,Japanese Yenthen depreciate to 200 or 300 Japanese YenExchange 1 dollar, this incredible “offline” point. Whether the exchange rate represents the strength of the comprehensive national strength or not, is Kuroda Haruhiko and Kishida Fumio willing to be so selfish? )
1. Preface
If accurately estimatedUS dollar indextrend? You can measure the stock market rebound and recovery!US dollar indexAt present, it has reached 108.562 points. This process of boiling frogs in warm water has made it difficult for the stock markets of emerging countries around the world to stop falling. Before Taiwan’s heavyweight big brother and TSMC will hold a performance briefing, Taiwan’s stock market fell 381.91 points on July 12, 2022, pulling down a heartbreaking long black K once more. On the evening of July 12, 2022, the National Security Fund Committee decided to enter the market the next day to “protect the market”; who does not know that TSMC’s operating performance in the second quarter of 2022 is so beautiful! Admire the “strong efficiency” investment behavior of the Guoan generals, and invest money before the prediction is 80% sure.
Inspired by this information on July 13, the Taiwan stock index rose 374.04 points; on July 14, the Taiwan stock index rose another 113 points.In particular, I want to remind those who are still drowsy and short that the US Department of Labor announced that the annual growth rate of the US CPI in June 2022 will reach more than 9.1%, and the surprise figures in the USDow JonesAnd NASDAQ actually opened lower and higher together, to make a good statement. Why did the National Security Fund decide to buy Taiwan stocks in a big way just before the development of these events? Of course, the time and price have been calculated!
「US dollar index“U.S. government 10-year Treasury bond yield” and “U.S. government 10-year Treasury bond yield” are the two simplest quantitative indicators to express financial risk, and these two indicators are enough for market reference. like”US dollar index“If it continues to climb to above 110 points in the future, there will be a large-scale exchange of the currencies of emerging countries around the world into US dollars; this will lead to the risk of collective exchange depreciation in the financial and industrial markets of emerging countries.todayEUR,andJapanese YenThe exchange rate once morest the US dollar has plummeted, and financial institutions in mainland China have apparently been hit by the real estate bubble. The mainland buyers of pre-sale houses turned their faces and did not want to invest any more funds; the building under construction became a rotten building, and the bank was surrounded and run by the crowd; the three-day rally in the stock market was just a flash in the pan? Or go straight to Huanglong? This topic is quite interesting.
two,”US dollar index“Tell us: yesEUR“Offline”, QE with Kuroda Haruhiko Japanese YenIt doesn’t matter!
US dollar indexWhy Financial Risk Indicators?
In the past, the Mexican government of the South American country suddenly announced in August 1982 that it might no longer pay its national debt. Then Jamaica, Peru and other countries followed up and announced that they might not pay their national debts; a storm of debt defaults occurred in emerging countries.thenUS dollar indexIt is from the low point in 1970, that is, the US Federal Reserve, in order to stimulate the economic prosperity and reduce interest rates, hot money funds ran wildly from the US dollar to emerging countries; in 1970US dollar indexat 80 o’clock. But when the economy is slowly recovering, booming, inflation will occur, and the economy will turn from the peak to the bottom, the Fed raises interest rates to curb inflation.As a result, hot money has made profits in emerging countries for more than 10 years. Of course, they have made profits and flowed back to the US dollar to obtain higher interest. Therefore, the currency of these countries, regardless of financial or capital accounts, hot money will be more stock or business. the right to be sold and exchanged back to dollars; thus August 1982US dollar indexRun to 160. This makes the long-term loan interest of enterprises, from low interest rates to high, unbearably high, surrendering their weapons, and being captured on the spot.In 1997, also at the beginning of August, funds also began to be distributed byThai Bahta large number of converted into US dollars; Southeast Asia, Malaysia, Indonesia, India, Vietnam and other currencies have depreciated successively;US dollar indexIt also rose to 120 points from 80 points in 1993 and 1995.
From the experience of these two large financial turmoils, a conclusion is drawn:US dollar indexThe lowest point is 80 points, when it reaches 120 points, the “Asian Financial Crisis” will occur, and when it reaches 160 points, there will be “pullingdollarsfinancial crisis”; just because of such historical experience,US dollar index 80 points – 120 points – 160 points, become the “identification line” of the financial situation. More and more of the above,US dollar indexWhen it rises above 115, you should pay attention to whether there are signs of “emerging country financial risks”. If the currency returns to the U.S. dollar and exhibits the “domino effect” and “Butterfly Effect”, a financial turmoil will occur; a sudden huge depreciation effect of the exchange rate occurs, which is all the “Financial Crisis” phenomenon; August 1982 The same is true for Latin America in August and the “Character” of the “financial turmoil” in August 1997.
3. In-depth discussionUS dollar indexWhy does it rise and fall? The Fed’s baton is waving!
one,US dollar indexThe reason for cooling down, the active factor comes from the US monetary easing policy; the passive factor comes from the SDR currency,EURandJapanese Yen、Swiss Francappreciate substantially; especiallyEURThe weight is the most important, accounting forUS dollar indexWeight 54%.Japanese YenIt only accounts for 12% of the weight of the US dollar. Why?Japanese YenWill the devaluation cause the exchange rates of countries around the world to depreciate? Why did it cause the world financial turmoil?
Second, inEURJust opened in 1990, investing in Europe became a world trend, once 1 EURConvertible to $1.64; in 2007US dollar index78 points.this timeEURThe exchange rate for the US dollar fell to 1 to 1.007, which is obviously a problem with the European economy, not what Taiwanese like.Japanese Yen; Appointed by Shinzo Abe since 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Haruhiko, and still continues to executeJapanese Yen Due to the QE policy; the Bank of Japan ignored the Fed’s wild interest rate hike strategy and ignored it at all.
three,US dollar indexliters, mainly becauseEURWeak currency exchange rates; financial markets don’t wait until dawn to see the sun, and at 4:30 in the morning should decide that today is “sunny” or cloudy. Let’s not hesitate to say that when the Taiwan stock market is below 15,500 points, this article believes that the market is regarding to rebound; it is because we see:
(1), under the Fed’s so arrogant claws, the United States 10-year Treasury yieldSince then, it has been completely passivated following 3.5%, and there has been no expected rise so far. Does it matter whether the annual growth rate of CPI is 8.6% or 9.1%? Doesn’t it show that the Fed is scaring and pissing people off?
(2) There is indeed a phenomenon of “short-term and long-term inversion” in U.S. bond yields. Most people think that this is a long-term “recession” and an ominous sign; but this article has already mentioned that starting in early 2024 and following inflation cools down, ask the Fed to What policy to stimulate the economy? Of course, it’s back to loose, or not? The “inversion of long-term and short-term government bond yields” is a phenomenon of capital demand, not an “absolute trend” of economic prosperity.
Fourth, this inflation will not be so long! The Fed has used the logic of the “rational expectations school” to scare the world and succeed, and the international investment banks are stunned and stunned. After examining the major investment banks, only former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers has an opinion, and his persuasion is complete. Reason for being bearish: In the most conservative case, the United States should study the asset purchases and fiscal policy of the Shinzo Abe regime in 2012. Therefore, the annual CPI growth rate of 9.1% was announced on July 10, and the stock market still opened lower and higher; it is expected that the annual growth rate of CPI in July on August 10, and even the Fed’s interest rate policy in September, will all become bulls at that time. “The best time to sell stocks.
5. Can you understand the above principle? Investors who dare not buy stocks now are branded with the anger of the CPI and the Fed; but the stock market “spread” only belongs to 10% of the participants. At this time, it is time to take risks and enter the market. This is the “contrarian strategy”; Most of the people who are sailing once morest the current in the stock market are “minority investors”, and they will see it from now until August 10, 2022, or even before the Fed meeting in September; the near future is still full of bad news, buy you Stocks that I dare not buy, enter the market in a big way. Because of the 9.1% CPI annual growth rate, and Dun Dun’s warning that it has risen at least three yards, most people are still afraid and deeply rooted in their hearts; there will always be a few who make money.
6. So from now on, when the “majority” is looking bad, the “minority investors” take risks to buy stocks, and the market starts to rise from today’s “two advance and one retreat” to before these two “event days”, August 10 The annual growth rate of CPI in July was announced on July 1, and in mid-September, the Fed suddenly told you that due to the cooling of inflation, it only raised interest rates by three or even two yards; People” will dump the stocks that have been bought to the “majority investors” who have only been flipped over. It is important to remember that the event is long and short, and there must be an extremely negative relationship with the stock price; this is the core logic of “main operating spread”.
3. Why are you talking regarding the annual growth rate of CPI? Still talking regarding how much the Fed will raise interest rates? This is an “outdated theme”!
It can be clearly seen from historical experience that the Fed’s monetary policy “easing” and “tightening” are mostly from calm (relaxing) and calmly leaving (tightening); is such a back and forth measurable? related to the risk of a financial crisis. Because every time the financial boom of emerging countries is “big boom”, most of the time when the Fed looses monetary policy, emerging countries’ financial and capital markets, and international hot money are invested; entrepreneurs in emerging countries will mistakenly think that this boom is a long-term phenomenon; so stock investment People are moving, share price buying is increasing, and companies are not relenting on capital spending. In 2021, there will be a Taiwanese semiconductor veteran, and every time he says, “Do you want production capacity? It’s gone! It’s all wrapped up”. Recently, it has become to say: “In the second half of the year? You have to clear the inventory!”, the judgment of the industry’s prosperity has turned the face and the book, is this the “God of Management” of semiconductors? ?
When the US dollar interest rate rose sharply from a very low level, the hot money began to take profits slowly and turned back to the US dollar currency.During this cycle, theUS dollar indexClimb from low to high; normally, it takes at least 10 years for the financial market, from sprinting, adjustment, cooling, to convergence and anti-face. The main reason is that the Fed’s interest rate cuts and interest rate hikes are changing, and they need to be gradually reduced to stimulate the economy, and then gradually increase to suppress overheating and inflation.
Two “financial disasters” in emerging countries?
The “Latin American Financial Crisis” was in 1970, when the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates sharply and planted the seeds of the 1982 crisis; and the “Asian Financial Crisis” in 1997 was also caused by the successful reform and opening up of mainland China in 1978. The GDP growth rates of South Asian countries are as high as double digits. In 1989, international hot money poured into Asia, seeking to invest in Asian countries; by 1997, foreign investors believed that most of the asset prices in these countries had been frothy and value for money; collective aspirations, one following another quickly from Thailand, Malaysia, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan The retreat continued until early 1998 when it was swept to Russia.
At that time, it was unbearable for foreign capital to withdraw, and the most serious storm of national debt default occurred was South Korea, which had the highest debt ratio. The South Korean government declared the country to be bankrupt and sought help from the IMF, which was regarded as a “national humiliation” by the Koreans. These two financial crises that are often cited in international economic history are mostly due to the late arrival of easing policies and the sudden release of tightening; many companies are mostly at the tail of easing policies, and they truly feel that prosperity seems to be “eternal”. The logical concept of “reverse thinking”. The result is that when the boom signal turned red to purple, it decided to expand the factory significantly. The “silent ending” was that it was suddenly attacked by inflation, and the Fed hurriedly reversed tightening; all corporate financing loans enjoyed low interest rates for less than one or two years. , will soon face the Fed raising interest rates and begin to bear high interest rates. This time the situation is even worse, because the Fed launched a “zero interest rate” offensive in March 2020, but in March 2022, less than three years later, it launched a high interest rate backhand to suppress the hottest inflation in history; have you been on a roller coaster? This is!
Since the second season, this article has been continuously dismantling the analysis, the inflation situation and the Fed’s contingency tactics; I can’t say that I can see the future evolution, but it is clear. We can only express our confidence in one sentence: the Fed can handle this inflation, and honestly, we really see through the Fed’s defeat without blood! If the US dollar interest rate will increase to more than 4%, the central interest rate indicator,10-year Treasury yieldSo calm now?US dollar indexThe rise, will it be so tender?
4. Conclusion: Isn’t it said that Taiwan has a good situation for 30 years? Don’t be timid following walking for four years!
In the past, there have been several stock market crashes in Taiwan stocks, at least seven times, when the National Security Fund led by the Ministry of Finance entered the market to support the market, in the chaotic market order, temporarily stabilizing investors’ confidence in holding shares, and realizing the need for liquidity; and at least seven times. The second support investment, and later all profit. It can be seen that at this moment, Taiwan stock investors have certain trust in Guoan Fund. This time, because the Taiwan stock market has never soared as high as 18,619.61 points, the support of the market has aroused great concern in investment public opinion.
This article finds from several recent representative companies, their operating results presentations and future expectations:
1. On behalf of Taiwan’s Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, advanced manufacturing process, in the corporate briefing on July 13, its announced second-quarter profit continued to grow, and the annual capital expenditure remained at 40 billion US dollars, and the stock price rose more than before and following reflect.
2. Shareholder Daliguang At the legal meeting on July 14, Lin Enping said that the demand for mobile phones in the second half of the year was bearish; even though he said that, the company once was below 2,000 yuan per share, and it still announced to buy treasury shares.
3. The above shows that this time the Taiwan stock market collapsed, in addition to the Fed’s response to interest rate hikes and the supply-side incentives of the Russian-Ukrainian war, in Taiwan stocks with strong competitiveness; there is no real reason why the stock price fell so fiercely. The Chinese people will be surprised in the future: among all the bad news saddened to the “Arctic Circle”, Taiwan’s economic competitiveness is no longer what it used to be.
4. The strength of a country’s currency exchange rate indicates the country’s competitiveness.Japanese YenHow did the exchange rate fall like this? If it goes down further, will this country’s comprehensive national strength still dominate the world?pleaseJapanese YenTake upUS dollar indexThe weight is only 12%,EUR54%, don’t worryJapanese YenGreat QE!
five,US dollar indexSo far, it may continue to rise slowly, this article starts at around 15,500 pointsUS dollar indexwith beauty 10-year Treasury yieldtwo risk indicators, and the discussion of inflation and interest rate hikes have been mentioned; at least the United States 10-year Treasury yield, has not surpassed the new high since 2008, and the situation is under control.This article is also convinced that if the Russian-Ukrainian war does not expand into a “third European war”, thenUS dollar indexThe uptrend will stop, and both indicators have completely subsided.
6. Re-emphasize the United States 10-year Treasury yieldonce reached 3.5004% in mid-June 2022, breaking through the highest level since the global financial crisis in 2008, showing that following the three QEs at that time, the interest rate level when the funds were backhanded and shrunk; by the United States 10-year Treasury yieldChanges, obviously this time from March 2020, the most severe following the end of the unlimited QE decision has become “the past short feelings”.
Depend onUS dollar indexIt is still slowly stepping up to the high-end trend, and the global financial and economic crisis seems to be a short weapon;US dollar indexOnce a downward turn is confirmed, this is a signal that global financial risks are completely over. Use cold water to wake up and calm down once more,US dollar indexThe opportunity to continue to rise slowly is completely tied toEURWeak as bamboo in the wind, noJapanese Yen! It is expected that the US index is regarding to passivate, stop in the plateau area, or even decline;
(Declaration: This article is for economic and financial theory and personal independent research, practical experience sharing, not an investment proposal; it does not endorse the investment profit and loss of any reference to this article, readers should pay attention to financial investment risks.)
