The atmosphere of the Hong Kong stock market has been extremely sluggish recently. It is definitely a matter of doing less and making fewer mistakes. However, several old friends who were good at speculation in the past have invariably talked to Qingbing regarding making fixed deposits or dividend-paying stocks. I would like to settle for the next best thing, and find some stable returns to fight inflation to offset interest rate hikes.
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The world has been in a low interest rate environment for more than ten years for a long time. Even if it is not a gambler, an ordinary stable investor will feel that cash is placed in the bank without interest, and should invest in value-added, buy real estate, buy dividend stocks, Raising new shares, or even buying iBond, is the way out for funds, and it is better to receive a return of two or three percent than a humiliating few mosquitoes in the bank. Indeed, in the past, the comrades-in-arms had cash left in their stock accounts, so they simply swayed and waited for the next hype opportunity, or waited for the hot new shares to make a margin subscription, but the current situation of Hong Kong stocks is so bad, 90% of new shares are drawn If you only lose one, the market is poor. Even if it is a blue-chip stock, a few percent will not be able to eat it. After a few days, a wave will slam into it, and many times it will change from winning to losing. The most important change is that the opportunity cost has risen. The cost of doing nothing has become expensive.
Bank aggressively strives for fixed deposit
The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates significantly several times to cool down inflation. Although the latest Hong Kong CPI is only 1.9%, under the linked exchange system, the balance of the banking system has declined, and the interest rate has become higher and higher. The one-month interbank interest rate has risen to 1.8 %, the bank will raise H according to the capped interest rate, and banks are scrambling to offer high interest rates to grab time deposits. In addition, the end of September is the quarterly end. I believe that the time for local banks to raise interest rates is not far away. Recently, banks have been very aggressive in their scramble for fixed deposits. New funds can be used to make fixed deposits at 3% upstairs. In addition, Qingbing has recently seen two unexpired iBonds, 4246 and 4239, and there is only one green bond (4252). ), if the three enter the market at the current price, they can get an annual interest rate of 3% upstairs if they are held to maturity. At the time of writing, the 10-year US bond interest rate has just risen above 3.1%, which means the opportunity cost of 3%. , seems to be the bottom line for future financial returns.
Now that you know where the bottom line is, looking back at the so-called traditional dividend stocks, they’re no longer attractive. Both CLP (002) and Gas (003) have had problems with their performance this year. They have fallen by 14% and 35% respectively this year, but their dividend yields are only 4.5%, and this yield may not be of great reference value, because in the mid-term The performance is too poor, which can affect the annual dividend at any time. When both the fixed deposit and the green bond iBond have a 3% interest rate, comrades-in-arms can find out whether the CLP and the gas are repaid.
In addition to the above two stocks, Link (823), HK Electric (2638) and Power (006) were relatively stable choices, but fell 6 to 7% in August respectively. Changjian (1038) rose first in August and then Down, worse this week, down 4%. It is unknown whether the funds in the market have been re-allocated, so all dividend-paying stocks have to be re-rated in the past. If so, comrades-in-arms should see the trend of US bond interest rates and when Hong Kong will raise interest rates, and find a better entry price to buy dividends Shares, remember, three cents is the bottom line.
green ice
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