2023-06-25 22:05:28
Russian President Vladimir Putin has benefited over the years from the activities of the Wagner Group, but its rebellion and its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin once morest the military leadership put the Russian president in front of a challenge that might irreversibly harm his prestige, according to analysts.
For decades, Wagner’s military roles in Africa, Syria, and eastern Ukraine served the political interests of Putin, who seemed resentful of the internal rivalry sparked by the successes of this group, rather than fearing its growing role.
However, Wagner, who had benefited from Putin’s support for years, turned once morest him. And Prigozhin, who was an ally of him, and gained the nickname “Putin’s chef”, in relation to his group providing food services to the presidential residence, is now pushing his forces towards Moscow.
The speed of Putin’s address to the nation, hours following the Wagner Group announced control of military headquarters in the city of Rostov-on-Don, and the intensity that characterized his words and facial expressions, reflected the seriousness of the threat posed by what Prigozhin did from the perspective of the Russian president.
While the Russian state enjoys military capabilities that eventually allow it to outpace this armed rebellion and even crush Wagner, the accelerating crisis threatens to permanently harm Putin, who has built over more than two decades in power the image of the sole leader holding the joints of a coherent governance structure.
“Putin’s clear position is to put down the rebellion,” says Tatbana Stanovia, director of R-Politik, a political analysis company, adding that Prigozhin is “doomed to fail” even if ending his armed movement takes “a long time.”
And she continues on her channel on Telegram that “many within the Russian elite may blame Putin personally for things reaching this extent, and that the president did not take an appropriate reaction at an appropriate time. Therefore, this story is also a blow to Putin’s positions.
And the British Ministry of Defense considered, in an intelligence assessment, that the rebellion of the Wagner Group is “the most important challenge to the Russian state in modern times,” adding: “In the coming hours, the loyalty of the Russian security forces, especially the Russian National Guard, will be pivotal in the course of the crisis.”
Benefit to Russia and Putin
The Wagner Group acquired a major role in the Russian-Ukrainian war, and assumed the most dangerous tasks on the front lines in light of the army’s declining performance and its heavy defeats, according to estimates by Western sources. “For a long time Prigozhin was allowed to attack the elite because of his usefulness on the front, in addition to some benefit to Putin himself,” says Alexander Bonov, a researcher at the Carnegie Russia-Eurasia Center.
But the Ukraine war strengthened Prigozhin’s position and self-confidence, as he admitted for the first time publicly that he was the founder of the group following denying that for years, and that he also publicly recruited fighters from Russian prisons. At first, his position and role were considered to enhance the Kremlin’s war effort, before it gradually turned into a rare and public challenge to the Russian president, who tried to keep his distance from his former ally, and had not met him publicly since the start of the invasion in February 2022.
Recently, Prigozhin has increased his harsh criticism of the military leadership, directing it directly at Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, one of Putin’s few personal friends in the Russian elite. Bonov believes that Prigozhin decided to “cross the line” with the Russian leadership, starting from June 13, the day Putin announced that mercenary groups such as Wagner should be under the authority of the Ministry of Defense, which he had previously strongly opposed for a long time.
Observers pointed out that in his address to the nation, Putin did not mention Prigozhin’s name, a tactic he had adopted in the past while speaking regarding his staunchest opponents, such as the suspended opposition Alexei Navalny.
Chair shaking
James Nicksy, director of the Russia-Eurasia Program at the Chatham House Research Center in the United Kingdom, believes that Prigozhin is “like a Frankenstein monster” that may have been authorized at an earlier stage to “cause the Russian army to shock it into a more effective war performance.”
“But it has now reached (a stage) much further than Putin ever imagined,” he told AFP. While Nixei asserts that Prigozhin lacks “many, forces and support” that would allow him to control Moscow, what he is doing “remains the first serious direct challenge to Putin’s authority in 24 years.”
Prigozhin’s actions contrast with that of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, who in turn built a powerful militia, but remained a close ally of the Kremlin. On Saturday, Kadyrov announced the dispatch of units to “zones of tension,” stressing the need to “end the rebellion, and if harsh measures are required, we are ready for that.”
Political science professor Anna Kulan Lebedev stresses that Moscow has everything it takes to “take back control.” And Lebedev adds: “But this unprecedented situation assures the elites that the time for stability has ended, and that the state that we thought was strong has flaws. And the seat of power today is a little more shaky than it was yesterday.”
• The British Ministry of Defense considered, in an intelligence assessment, that the rebellion of the Wagner Group is “the most important challenge to the Russian state in modern times.”
• “Wagner” assumed the most dangerous tasks on the Ukrainian front lines in light of the army’s declining performance and its heavy defeats in lives, according to estimates by Western sources.
1687740305
#rebellion #Wagner #Group #upsets #balance #war #Ukraine