Russia appears very far from winning its war once morest Ukraine and all of its options in the future are fraught with risks, according to Western analysts who spoke to the newspaper.The Guardian” British.
The newspaper said that the Russian army is approaching a state of exhaustion following a failed attack on Kyiv, and launched a new attempt to seize areas in eastern Ukraine, while the West continues to escalate sanctions once morest Moscow.
“With the current strength that the Russians have, the push they are trying to make now is all they have left,” said Jeffrey Edmonds, chief analyst at the CNA think-tank.
“Militaries do not recover quickly from such a devastating loss,” added Edmunds, who previously served as Russia’s official at the US National Security Council. “Given how effective the Ukrainians are alongside Western support, I don’t think the Russians will be able to achieve their goals within a short time.” the coming weeks.”
In order to face the setbacks in Ukraine, Western observers and officials have suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin will use the Victory Day celebrations to strengthen his position.
The dramatic options that Putin may make may include escalation through a formal declaration of war, general mobilization, or appeasement by declaring victory, according to the newspaper.
Putin may also try another solution by praising the Russian army’s “victory” in Ukraine, while signaling that the country may face a painful and protracted conflict in Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials had previously warned that Putin was planning to announce a mass mobilization, or even declare war once morest Ukraine, recalling personnel and resources that had not been exploited under Russia’s so-called “special operation” that began on February 24.
The Kremlin has denied planning a mobilization, although some Russians have leaked subpoenas and government orders relating to a possible mobilization that have been posted on local websites.
And the official mobilization, which might see tens of thousands of reservists pull out of their jobs, and close the borders to combat-age men, is something Russia has been unable to manage before.
“It would be very devastating for the economy and would increase the risk of increasing the military losses that Russian forces have already suffered in Ukraine,” she added.
“The announcement of the mobilization will greatly reduce the popularity of the war among Russians,” Russian military expert Pavel Luzhin told the newspaper.
He also asked regarding the possibility of implementing this mobilization from a technical point of view, “What can you do with the mobilized people? Who are the officers and military units that can deal with them?”
Fearing defeat, Russia may threaten further escalation by hinting at Putin the possibility of nuclear conflict.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has used the military parade, which coincides with Victory Day, in recent years to display the strength of his army and sometimes reveal new, highly advanced weapons. It is expected that this year’s offer will fall in the same context.
After it failed to invade the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, in the face of Ukrainian forces that were more ready than expected and equipped with weapons from Western countries, the Russian General Staff had to review its goals by limiting the attack to eastern and southern Ukraine.
