For Vladimir Putin, the arrival of Donald Trump’s victory in the elections could not have come at a more opportune moment. According to various reports, Putin may be inclined to consider a deal that would grant Moscow substantial territorial gains in Ukraine, potentially comparable to the size of the U.S. state of Virginia, while ensuring that Ukraine adopts a neutral stance, relinquishing any ambitions to join NATO or the European Union.
The war has taken its toll on both nations, as Ukraine is grappling with pronounced war fatigue, a sentiment mirrored in Russia itself. While Russian forces are advancing steadily in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, recruitment challenges continue to plague the Kremlin. The recent news confirming the involvement of North Korean soldiers in the conflict underscores this difficulty.
Despite the intensified military actions, evidenced by reports suggesting that Moscow has launched its first intercontinental ballistic missile since the onset of the war, it has become increasingly apparent that a peace agreement would serve the interests of both Moscow and Kyiv.
Western analysts estimate that between 115,000 and 160,000 Russian troops have perished, representing a staggering 90% of the initial military personnel deployed at the beginning of the conflict. Furthermore, an additional 500,000 troops have been reported injured. In response to these losses, Russia has been attempting to enlist 20,000 new recruits each month.
Recruiting soldiers, particularly during wartime, has always presented significant challenges in Russia. Many young men perceive joining the military as an undesirable fate, especially given the prevalent issues of hazing and bullying by seasoned soldiers. This brutal practice, known as dedovshchina, has tarnished the reputation of the Russian military for centuries, dating back to the end of the 17th century.
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the media began to reveal the horrific conditions faced by soldiers in the military, highlighting issues such as inadequate medical care and extreme malnutrition. The treatment of conscripts who were sent to fight in Chechnya during the mid-1990s remains etched in the memories of many Russians, exposing a legacy of neglect that continues to haunt military recruitment.
The Russian government has displayed a troubling lack of regard for the safety and well-being of its soldiers during both peacetime and wartime. This growing desperation among young men to escape the draft intensifies as the country remains embroiled in an active conflict.
Putin’s administration appears to be reaching a critical juncture as he threatens nuclear action in Ukraine, a sign that troop replacements are dwindling. The military is increasingly viewed as a mechanism to conscript the economically disadvantaged; conscripts are often treated as expendable, with their deaths going unacknowledged and their bodies frequently not properly identified.
Most conscripts originate from the Far East regions of Russia, including Bashkortostan, Chechnya, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), and Dagestan—essentially areas positioned as far from Moscow as possible.
However, the draft has become an increasing concern for young men in Moscow as well, who now face a heightened state of aggression from the Russian government. An alarming number of Russians have fled their homeland, compelling the authorities to enact a stricter draft law aimed at mobilizing troops.
This new law, effective as of November 1, mandates that draft notices are now delivered electronically. Upon receiving a notice in their digital mailbox, drafted individuals are immediately prohibited from leaving the country and face severe penalties for any attempt to do so.
This development implies that any time a Russian man engages with the government—whether to pay taxes, renew a passport, or access any government services—he can be contacted directly, thus increasing the likelihood of receiving a draft card. Establishing an online presence in Russia, such as through bank accounts or loans, further complicates efforts to evade conscription.
Since the war began, many Russian men have resorted to a range of tactics to circumvent the draft, from faking drug dependencies to producing fraudulent medical documents, and, in some extreme cases, even resorting to self-mutilation.
A stark development has been the recruitment of prisoners, including those convicted of serious crimes like murder and sexual offenses. This practice has significantly reduced Russia’s prison population.
But the reality remains that Putin is increasingly running out of recruits. To entice enlistment, the Ministry of Defence has raised compensation, making military service more financially rewarding than many civilian roles, effectively doubling bonuses for those joining as of last November.
Leaning on the North Korean military might offer a stopgap measure, but the inexperience of North Korean troops, coupled with their unfamiliarity with Russian tactics and language barriers, complicates efforts to coordinate effectively for combat operations.
Russian soldiers have expressed concern, stating that they lack the necessary guidance regarding how to integrate North Korean reinforcements. Although unpopular among the Belarusian population, Putin may attempt to compel Belarusian forces to provide support, as they have a working knowledge of Russian tactics and military operations.
In a further demonstration of vulnerability, Putin has indicated that traditional warfare methods are insufficient. On November 19, he ominously warned of the potential use of nuclear weapons following an attack by Ukrainian forces employing U.S.-made ATACMS missiles in the western Bryansk region of Russia.
In typical scenarios where conventional strategies yield positive results, there would be little rationale for heightening the threshold for nuclear deployment.
It is essential to recognize that the war is also proving problematic for Ukraine, as it faces its own challenges with recruitment and territorial losses. However, it would be erroneous to assume that Putin is entering negotiations from a position of strength. Although he may be running out of manpower, a potentially advantageous settlement may still be on the horizon despite these pressing issues.
Natasha Lindstaedt is a professor in the Department of Government, University of Essex