Putin’s Declaration of War in Ukraine to China: Analysis and Implications

2023-12-29 14:03:00

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    According to a report, Vladimir Putin is said to have prepared Russia’s partner China for a long war in Ukraine months ago. Beijing was surprised.

    Moscow – China stands on Russia’s side, even though the regime in Moscow launched the Ukraine war, which violates international law, with a lot of suffering, sadness and brutality.

    Vladimir Putin: Russia autocrat allegedly announced long war in Ukraine to China

    Like this one now Japanese daily newspaper Nikkei reports, Kremlin autocrat Vladimir Putin promised the Chinese leader at a joint meeting in the Russian capital in March 2023 that his troops would fight in Ukraine for another five years.

    Partners: China’s head of state Xi Jinping (left) and Russia’s autocrat Vladimir Putin. © IMAGO/Xie Huanchi

    The General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, Chairman of the Central Military Commission and President of the People’s Republic of China traveled to Moscow on March 21 for a three-day and highly publicized state visit. The newspaper Nikkei In its report, refers to unnamed participants in the conference between the two rulers, which discussed bilateral relations between the two countries.

    Striking: The article comes from editor-in-chief Katsuji Nakazawa, who worked as a political correspondent in China for seven years. Putin spoke of “at least five years,” he continues. Putin was probably trying to cover up the unfavorable military situation of the Russian army in Ukraine. Including an emphatic statement that Russia will (already) emerge victorious from the bloody battles between Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia and Avdiivka.

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    Xi Jinping and China: Does the length of the Ukraine war affect threats to Taiwan?

    The time window for the forecast therefore extends to March 2028. In March 2024, Putin wants to be confirmed as Russian president for the first time, in an election that Kremlin critics describe as a “parody”. China has meanwhile revised its strategy, reports Nikkei. Specifically, if the Ukraine war continues for a longer period of time, it would “have a significant impact on Xi’s plans and ambitions for his unprecedented third term as China’s president and general secretary of the Communist Party,” writes Nakazawa in his analysis.

    In short: Xi might hesitate regarding a possible invasion of Taiwan because the bitter Russian experiences in the invaded neighboring country serve as a warning. Many political observers agree that Putin wanted to finally subjugate Ukraine in a few weeks. At the turn of the year 2023/24, according to the German ambassador to Moscow, Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, photos of killed and missing soldiers will instead be hanging in a row in Russian villages.

    Russia’s losses in Ukraine: Is this why Beijing is hesitating regarding Taiwan?

    China and Russia announced a “borderless” partnership in February 2022 when Putin visited Beijing – a few days before the attack on Ukraine. “Although the two heads of state have not signed a formal military alliance, such moves should cause great concern for the United States and its allies,” Chels Michta recently wrote for the think tank Center for European Policy Analysis. According to Japanese assessments, the fact that the Russians are now having to accept bitter losses in Ukraine and even in Crimea is intended to unsettle Beijing. (pm)

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