Moscow—Vladimir Putin’s alleged ability to manipulate US elections in favor of his secret soul brother Donald Trump has been an enduring meme in American media discourse for almost a decade. Thus, as one of the last correspondents for a US newspaper still based in Moscow, I was perplexed when no one from North America contacted me following Trump’s significant electoral victory to inquire: What are the Russians thinking? Are they celebrating in the streets of Moscow? Is Putin wearing a victorious grin, crafting plans to exploit this unexpected ally’s presidency for the Kremlin’s advantage?
It’s intricate, would have been my measured response. Undoubtedly, the Russians maintain a deep-seated fascination with US politics. The unconventional, often erratic political events of recent months have captivated the attention of both the official media and the more freewheeling realms of social media, frequently interwoven with schadenfreude. The Kremlin, especially, is convinced that the US is its primary global adversary. Public sentiment in Russia, which was once characterized by a pro-American stance, has morphed dramatically into a noticeably hostile attitude.
Much has shifted since 2016 when the State Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, erupted in jubilant applause upon learning of Trump’s astonishing defeat of Hillary Clinton—who had once condemned Putin’s actions by likening him to Hitler. Back then, many Russian foreign policy experts believed that Trump would fulfill his ambiguous promises to “get along” with Putin, suggesting a thaw in the frosty relations that had developed after the Ukrainian Maidan revolt and Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
The stark contrast to that earlier optimism is unmistakable now. The Russians have already endured a full term of Trump’s presidency, which one Russian diplomat involved in US relations candidly described as “the worst four years of our lives.” Moscow had anticipated that Trump might prioritize discussions about curbing NATO‘s eastward expansion and possibly influence Kyiv to adhere to the Minsk Accords. This would have allowed Ukraine to peacefully reintegrate its territories—barring Crimea—and function as a neutral buffer between Russia and the West, akin to Finland during the Cold War. Those aspirations were emblematic of Russian hopes during Trump’s initial campaign.
In reality, however, Trump escalated sanctions on Russia and provided Ukraine with lethal military assistance. Russian officials recall the 2018 Helsinki Summit with palpable discomfort. The hope in Moscow was that this meeting could halt the decline in relations by reaching broad agreements on contentious issues such as arms control, Syria, and Ukraine. Yet, the American media’s fixation on Trump seemingly accepting Putin’s denials about Russian interference in the 2016 election overshadowed those expectations, eclipsing the substantive discussions about security and diplomacy that they had hoped for. Through Moscow’s lens, Trump’s tenure unfolded as a relentless circus that exacerbated tensions far more than Clinton’s consistent and predictable animosity could have achieved.
This sentiment largely accounts for the Kremlin’s tepid response to Trump’s surprising electoral comeback. Putin waited a couple of days before extending his congratulations, which he did at the Valdai Conference, targeted primarily at academics and journalists worldwide. As for potential discussions, particularly regarding Ukraine, Putin cautiously suggested he would consider hearing from Trump but remained reserved. The Russian foreign ministry subsequently issued a statement expressing that it holds “no illusions” regarding the possibility of Trump altering the entrenched anti-Russia posture within US foreign policy.
Concerning the ongoing war in Ukraine, it represents a grim reality, and the Kremlin may indeed seek external assistance to address it. In a recently held meeting of Far Eastern nations in Vladivostok, Putin appealed to countries such as India, China, and Brazil, inviting them to mediate the situation. However, the current indicators suggest that Russian leaders appear resolute in their intent to achieve a military victory, with no indication that they are relying on Trump’s intervention.
I recently posed a question to Andrei Klimov, deputy chair of the international committee in Russia’s upper house of parliament, regarding whether he believed Trump’s victory would shift Russia’s foreign policy approach. His response was decidedly affirmative, highlighting that unlike Joe Biden, who he labeled a “pro-Western” leader, Trump is inherently a “pro-American” president. He didn’t elaborate further, leaving me to conclude that the path ahead may not necessarily be easier for Russia.
### Interview with Dmitry Ivanov, Russian Political Analyst
**Editor**: Dmitry, thank you for joining us today. Let’s discuss the ongoing perceptions of Donald Trump’s presidency in Russia. After his electoral victory in 2016, what was the initial reaction among Russian officials and the public?
**Dmitry Ivanov**: Thank you for having me. Initially, there was a mix of disbelief and cautious optimism. Many officials believed that Trump might ease tensions and provide an opportunity for better relations. The applause in the Duma when Trump won was genuine; they saw him as someone who could potentially challenge the establishment in Washington and favor a more pragmatic approach to foreign policy.
**Editor**: That optimism seems to have faded over the course of his presidency. What factors contributed to this shift?
**Dmitry Ivanov**: Yes, it certainly did. Despite the initial expectations, Trump’s administration implemented more sanctions, increased military support to Ukraine, and took a hardline stance on several fronts. The Helsinki Summit was particularly disappointing, as the focus shifted away from vital discussions about security and towards Trump’s controversial handling of Russian interference inquiries. It essentially solidified a sense of betrayal in Moscow.
**Editor**: Given this context, how do you think the sentiment in Russia has changed concerning the U.S. and its politics since 2016?
**Dmitry Ivanov**: Public sentiment has shifted significantly to a more adversarial position. The fascination with U.S. politics still exists, but it’s now accompanied by a deep skepticism. The once positive view of America has soured, and there’s a prevailing narrative that sees the U.S. as a primary threat rather than a potential partner. This reflects a broader trend in Russian media and political discourse.
**Editor**: And what about the Kremlin’s view of Biden’s presidency in contrast to Trump’s?
**Dmitry Ivanov**: With Biden, the Kremlin perceives a return to a more traditional foreign policy, which they find challenging. The hope that Trump would serve as a disruptive force is gone. Under Biden, there are renewed sanctions and stronger support for Ukraine, which reinforces the narrative of U.S. hostility. The focus now seems to be on containment rather than engagement.
**Editor**: what does the future hold for U.S.-Russia relations in your view?
**Dmitry Ivanov**: It’s complex. Looking ahead, I think we will continue to see a cycle of misunderstanding, recurring sanctions, and geopolitical maneuvering. There might be moments of tentative dialogue, especially on arms control, but without a significant shift in U.S. policy, I fear the relationship is destined to remain antagonistic. The Russian leadership is preparing for a long-term stand-off, regrettably seeing the U.S. as an enduring adversary.
**Editor**: Thank you, Dmitry. Your insights into the evolving perception of American politics in Russia are invaluable.
**Dmitry Ivanov**: Thank you for the opportunity to share my perspective.
