The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has released findings indicating that Russian President Vladimir Putin is actively working to influence the foreign policy framework of US President-elect Donald Trump. Putin’s objective appears to be an ambitious reset of US-Russia relations, executed according to Moscow’s strategic interests.
Throughout his campaign and during his presidency, Donald Trump consistently expressed admiration for Putin, frequently downplaying and dismissing the severe criticisms levied against Russia’s aggressive actions on the global stage. Trump’s administration faced a torrent of scrutiny for his unusually warm rhetoric toward the Kremlin and his hesitance to confront or condemn Russian incursions into international territories.
During a notable address at the Valdai Discussion Club on 7 November, Putin highlighted Trump’s campaign language, referring specifically to Trump’s proclaimed “desire to restore relations with Russia and to help end the Ukrainian crisis,” as per the ISW’s detailed report.
The ISW’s analysis conveys that Putin unequivocally laid the blame for the deteriorating state of US-Russia relations squarely at the feet of Washington. He pointed to the imposition of US sanctions and the unwavering support for Ukraine as significant factors contributing to the current tensions. The report importantly emphasizes that Putin deliberately neglected to mention that these punitive measures were instigated in direct response to Russia’s invasion and ongoing aggression against Ukraine.
Furthermore, the assessment suggests that any potential reset in relations would be contingent upon the United States dropping its sanctions and ceasing its support for Ukraine. This conditionality reflects Putin’s strategic calculations regarding US engagement with Russia moving forward.
“Putin’s statement implies that Russia would only accept any reset in US-Russia relations if the US dropped sanctions and restrictions against Russia and stopped supporting Ukraine,” asserts the ISW report, underscoring the current impasse.
The analysis also notes that Putin described NATO as a “blatant anachronism” while advocating for BRICS as a non-aligned bloc alternative to Western alliances. Nonetheless, ISW highlights a significant contradiction, pointing out Moscow’s ongoing efforts to forge a new anti-Western coalition featuring Iran, North Korea, and China, thereby illustrating the complexities of global alliances in the context of rising geopolitical tensions.
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**Interview with Dr. Elena Vasilyeva, Senior Analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)**
**Editor:** Thank you for joining us today, Dr. Vasilyeva. The recent findings from ISW reveal that President Putin is actively seeking to influence US foreign policy under President-elect Trump. Can you elaborate on what this means for US-Russia relations moving forward?
**Dr. Vasilyeva:** Thank you for having me. Yes, our findings suggest that Putin perceives a unique opportunity to reshape US-Russia relations in a way that aligns with Moscow’s strategic interests. Trump’s previous rhetoric, which often expressed admiration for Putin and suggested a desire to reset relations, plays directly into this strategy. Putin aims to leverage this to diminish US sanctions and reduce support for Ukraine, which he blames for the current tensions.
**Editor:** It seems that Putin has focused on blaming the United States for the deterioration of relations. How does this narrative fit within the wider context of Russia’s actions in Ukraine?
**Dr. Vasilyeva:** That’s a crucial point. Putin’s narrative conveniently omits Russia’s own aggressive actions, such as the annexation of Crimea and ongoing military support for separatists in eastern Ukraine. By framing US sanctions and support for Ukraine as the root causes of strained relations, he avoids accountability for these actions. This approach is aimed at garnering domestic and international sympathy while also seeking to create division within US politics.
**Editor:** If Trump’s administration pursues this reset of relations, what implications might it have for Ukraine?
**Dr. Vasilyeva:** Should the US ease sanctions and diminish support for Ukraine as part of this reset, it would undoubtedly embolden Russia. The potential for increased aggression against Ukraine could rise significantly, potentially destabilizing the region further. It’s crucial for both the US and Europe to maintain a united front against any attempts to rewrite the narrative around Russia’s actions and to ensure that support for Ukraine remains steadfast.
**Editor:** There seems to be a growing concern in Europe as well about Trump’s return to power. How important is European unity in this scenario?
**Dr. Vasilyeva:** European unity is absolutely essential in this context. With the rise of populism and divisions within the EU, it will be a challenge to present a cohesive front against Russian aggression. However, if countries can align their strategies and responses to support Ukraine and hold Russia accountable, they potentially mitigate some of the risks posed by a Trump administration that may be more lenient toward Moscow.
**Editor:** Thank you, Dr. Vasilyeva, for your insights. It’s clear that the geopolitical landscape is shifting, and the actions of the next US administration will play a crucial role in future developments, particularly in relation to Ukraine.
**Dr. Vasilyeva:** Thank you for having me. It’s vital to stay vigilant and proactive in these uncertain times.
