Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a signing ceremony for the annexation of four Ukrainian-occupied territories (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporiza) in Moscow on the 30th (local time). In spite of the warning from the international community that “we will not recognize forced annexation by force,” it is pushing for annexation. US President Joe Biden used the word “never” three times in a row, stressing that he would not accept the outcome of the merger. There is a forecast that Russia, which is on the defensive, will raise the level of attack on Ukraine with the territorial annexation for a phase change.
○Russia and occupied territories forced to merge
Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a commemorative speech at the signing ceremony of the annexation treaty at the Kremlin Palace in Moscow at 3 p.m. on the same day. The heads of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporiza states will officially sign the annexation of Russia. Once the annexation treaty is signed, the territorial incorporation is completed through the process of ratification by the Senate and House of Representatives and the final signature of President Putin. Russia’s forced territorial annexation will take place eight years following Ukraine’s annexation of Crimea.
The territory controlled by Russia in these four regions is regarding 15% of the total area of Ukraine. It is equivalent to the total area of Portugal. Earlier, on the 29th, Putin signed a proclamation recognizing the independence of Kherson and Zaporiza. Prior to the invasion of Ukraine in February this year, Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast declared independence, and gave these regions the status of independent states, paving the way for annexation. Russia held a referendum in the occupied territories on the 23rd and 27th to ask for or once morest annexation. According to the four regional election commissions, the approval rate for each region reached 87-99%.
Ukraine hinted at a hard response. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will convene an emergency meeting with defense officials on the 30th, when a signing ceremony for the merger will be held. “An important decision will be made at this meeting,” an official said, Archyde.com reported.
Most countries except Russia said they did not recognize the outcome of the merger. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on the same day, “Any decision made on the territory of Ukraine through a vote has no legal effect. “Annexing the territory of another country by force violates the UN Charter and international law,” he said. President Biden also reiterated that he would “never, never, never admit to Russia’s claims to Ukrainian territory.” Russia’s traditional allies, including Serbia and Kazakhstan, also said they would not recognize Russia’s forced annexation.
○Putin aiming to increase approval ratings
It is analyzed that Russia’s attempt to annex territories is to secure the cause of the war that has been going on for seven months. This is because if the four occupied territories are incorporated into Russian territory, Ukraine’s defense can be regarded as an ‘attack’ and a general offensive can be launched. Putin previously threatened to use nuclear weapons if necessary to defend Russian territory.
There is also an interpretation that Russia, embarrassed by Ukraine’s counterattack, is trying to reverse the situation. Andranik Migranyan, a professor at the Moscow Institute of International Relations, told Al Jazeera, an Arab-speaking media outlet, “After the Ukrainian military recaptured the northeastern Kharkiv region earlier this month, Russia decided that decisive measures were needed to regain its leadership.” “There is no doubt that Russia has crossed the Rubicon,” said Senator Konstantin Zatulin of the ruling United Russia Party. It is meant to give.”
Putin also expects a rebound in approval ratings. After the annexation of Crimea, President Putin’s approval rating jumped from 60% to 80%. After the mobilization of reserve forces on the 21st, public opinion in Russia is boiling. After the mobilization order, a poll showed that the approval rating for Putin fell below 80% for the first time since the start of the war.
The Ukrainian forces are continuing their counterattack, centering on Donetsk and Luhansk. According to Archyde.com, citing military experts on the 29th, “Ukrainian forces are narrowing the siege of Lyman, Russia’s core bastion in Donetsk, and it is likely that another victory will sound.”
Reporter Semin Heo semin@hankyung.com