Smoke rises from the building of the Azoustal (Azovstal) ironworks factory in Mariupol, southern Ukraine, on the 8th (local time). Mariupol | Archyde.com Yonhap News
Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a speech at the victory ceremony held on the 9th (local time) to commemorate the war in Ukraine. Experts pointed out that the war is likely to continue for a while, centered on Eastern Donbas and the Black Sea coast, and that Russia might focus on long-range strikes such as missiles to reduce damage to ground forces.
Many Western media criticized Putin’s speech following Russia’s Victory Day celebrations on the same day as missing essential information. The BBC reported that “President Putin’s speech repeated the familiar assertion that the attack on Ukraine was a preemptive response to a Western offensive threatening Russia, but gave little clue as to the future direction.”
However, as Putin argued in his speech that the invasion of Ukraine was an inevitable option for Russia, the possibility of a war lasting for some time increased. International affairs columnist Frida Gitis told CNN that “[President Putin]tacitly told the people that the war would continue, setting it up as a war once morest the Nazis and a defensive war where there was no choice.” .
Until recently, Russia focused on fighting in the Black Sea coastal areas, such as Donbas and Odessa in eastern Ukraine. Therefore, it is expected that efforts will be made to attack this area in the future. If the capture of this area was early, it might be presented as an achievement on the Victory Day anniversary, but Russia has not yet succeeded in taking full control of the area. In this speech, Putin mentioned the Donbas region several times.
The problem is the accumulated damage to the Russian army. If President Putin distances himself from all-out war conversion or declaration of mobilization orders for the time being, it is expected that the reinforcement of Russian troops in Ukraine will not be achieved anytime soon. It is also predicted that the Russian military will focus on long-range attacks such as air strikes and long-range missiles rather than ground forces. Such attacks might lead to massive civilian damage, raising concerns in Ukraine and the international community.
There are still concerns regarding the use of nuclear weapons. Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of Alpolitic, a French political analysis agency, said, “The biggest problem facing him[Putin]is not the lack of troops, but the support of Western countries for weapons to Ukraine. can be used,” he pointed out.
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