Russia has tried to influence the results of around 30 elections in around 20 countries since Vladimir Putin came to power in 1999, a phenomenon which continues to grow and which aims to weaken the ‘West.
Disinformation campaigns, hacking, occult financing; since 2015, the Russians have been targeting major Western democracies in particular at an accelerating pace.
With what we know today regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine, “such interference is a very serious symptom of the decline in relations between the West and Russia”, believes Adam Casey, postdoctoral researcher at the University of Michigan, which compiled all the cases in a study first published in 2018.
The breaking point is said to have come in 2014, when Russia invaded Crimea following Ukraine’s Euromaidan revolution. These pro-European demonstrations brought down pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych.
In the study that Dr. Casey wrote with Lucan Way, a professor at the University of Toronto, we find that Russia is now interfering in many elections in Western countries, whereas it used to do so only in former countries of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) before 2015. They studied the phenomenon from 1991 to 2018.
Mixed results
President Putin’s interference manifests itself in different ways, but above all it aims to encourage dissenting voices in the targeted countries, which have goals similar to those of the Russians.
“These parties [politiques] want to leave NATO or weaken it, reduce their ties with the United States, are anti-European Union or want to leave it outright”, illustrates Dr. Casey in an interview.
However, the researchers believe that the results of these efforts are mixed, and sometimes difficult to prove (see examples below).
Also in Canada
Canada is no exception even though it is not on Lucan Way and Adam Casey’s list. Another Simon Fraser University researcher, Ahmed al-Rawi, shows that Russians and Iranians also tried to influence the 2015 federal election.
It has not yet been established whether the Russians interfered in a concerted way in the Canadian elections of 2019 and 2021. There are still a few reports that speak of efforts by Russian trolls and robots to sow discord in social networks during this period.
Strategies used by the Russians
- Disinformation campaigns on social networks to polarize populations
- Organization of demonstrations once morest refugees
- Distribution of fake emails and documents on WikiLeaks
- Cyberattacks on voter registration systems
- Phishing campaign targeting political parties
- Funding of far-right political parties
- Electoral count hacking
Years of interference
Canada
◆ 2015
Although the federal government deemed cyber threats to be low in the election won by Justin
Trudeau, a researcher analyzed 12 million tweets and found that Russian trolls supported Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, and Iranian trolls supported the Liberals.
The results, however, are impossible to assess, but their objectives were to sow division in Canadian society.
UK
◆ 2015
◆ 2016
During the Brexit referendum, the main British political parties were in favor of keeping the United Kingdom in the European Union, and once morest all odds, the small organizations in favor of Leave won their bet.
They were backed by a major disinformation campaign on social media by Russian bots and trolls, as well as RT and Sputnik channels.
France
◆ 2017
A Russian bank lent millions of euros to Marine Le Pen’s National Front in 2014 (now National Rally). Links between the FN and Russian government officials date back to 2011.
In the 2017 presidential elections, Emmanuel Macron’s En Marche party was hacked and emails were published by WikiLeaks. Russian trolls and bots ran a massive disinformation campaign online, prompting Facebook to intervene by deleting fake accounts.
Le Pen lost in the second round of the presidential election, but had never obtained so many supports.
United States
◆ 2016
The 2016 presidential elections “represent the most successful steps taken by Russians”, according to the researchers.
Russian trolls and bots have notably reached at least 126 million people on Facebook to further polarize American society, they have tried to split the vote among progressives and democrats, they have tried to demotivate African Americans from voting, they have hacked into Hillary Clinton’s campaign emails and attacked local election systems.
◆ 2018
Netherlands
◆ 2016
◆ 2017
Norway
◆ 2016
Austria
◆ 2016
Spain
◆ 2017
Malta
◆ 2017
Italy
◆ 2016
The constitutional referendum led to the resignation of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.
The proposed reform was decried by Eurosceptic right and far-right parties, such as Movimento 5 Stelle and Lega Nord, which were already popular. They maintain links with Russia, Movimento 5 Stelle having met officials of the United Russia party, which is pro-Putin. For its part, Lega Nord has had funding from Russia.
Disinformation campaigns have also been launched by Russians.
◆ 2018
Bosnia and Herzegovina
◆ 2018
Germany
◆ 2015
◆ 2017
The far-right Eurosceptic party AfD entered the German parliament, which weakened the coalition led by Angela Merkel. In addition to having launched a disinformation campaign in social networks, the Russians have been accused of cyberattacks and cyberespionage by Germany. A German MP even called the AfD “the extension of Putin’s arm in the German parliament”.
Belarus
◆ 2006
Czech Republic
◆ 2017
◆ 2018
North Macedonia
◆ 2018
Montenegro
◆ 2016
Russian spies have been found guilty, along with other co-conspirators, of planning to assassinate Prime Minister Milo Dukanovic on election day in order to install a pro-Russian, anti-NATO leader in power. Montenegrin police were tipped off by Western spies and rescued Dukanovic.
◆ 2018
Moldova
◆ 2005
◆ 2009
◆ 2014
Bulgaria
◆ 2016
Ukraine
◆ 2002
◆ 2004
◆ 2010
◆ 2014
A series of cyberattacks have been launched once morest Ukraine by the Russians, including to change the total number of votes, infect the servers of the Ukrainian Election Commission and even falsely announce the victory of a far-right candidate.
Sources : Lucan Way & Adam Casey, Russian Foreign Election Interventions Since 1991, 2018, PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo. Lucan Way & Adam Casey, Russian Election Interventions, 1991-2018 Codebook, Université de Toronto. Al-Rawi, A. How did Russian and Iranian trolls’ disinformation toward Canadian issues diverge and converge?, Digital War.
