Germany and with it Europe are entering a period of great uncertainty on Monday regarding the continuation of their imports of Russian gas, already greatly reduced in recent weeks and which might soon dry up completely.
The Russian giant Gazprom began maintenance work on the two Nord Stream 1 gas pipelines in the morning, which carry a large quantity of its gas, which is still delivered to Germany and several other countries in Western Europe.
This stoppage for ten days of the two pipes, announced for a long time, was in theory only to be a technical formality.
But in the context of the war in Ukraine and the showdown between Moscow and the West over energy, no one can bet on the future.
“Faucet closed”
“Putin is going to close the gas tap for us… but will he ever open it once more?”Germany’s most widely read daily, Bild, worried on Sunday.
“We are facing an unprecedented situation, everything is possible”recognized over the weekend the German vice-chancellor, Robert Habeck, on public radio.
“It is possible that the gas will flow once more, even in greater quantities than before. It is possible that nothing more will come and we must prepare as always for the worst”, he added.
Moscow, citing a technical problem, has already reduced gas deliveries by Nord Stream by 60% in recent weeks, a decision denounced as “political” by Berlin. Elsewhere in Europe, Gazprom has done the same, cutting supplies to some countries and cutting them off completely to others, such as Poland and Bulgaria.
Berlin therefore worked hard to convince Canada on Saturday to return a turbine intended for Nord Stream 1, which was under maintenance in the country. And this despite protests from Ukraine.
Germany did not want to give Moscow an additional argument to interrupt its gas deliveries. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, through his spokesman on Sunday, “welcomed the decision of our Canadian friends”.
Berlin also argues that, for technical reasons, it would be difficult for Gazprom to stop its deliveries via Nord Stream, the gas exploited in the Siberian field being “under pressure” and not able to be stored forever. “It’s not like a water tap”, by M. Habeck.
Fear of rationing
Since the start of the war, Germany has closed another Russian gas pipeline which was due to come into operation – Nord Stream 2 – and is making efforts to reduce its dependence, but it still remains significant: 35% of its gas imports come from of Russia, once morest 55% before the war. And more than 50% of the heating of homes is still provided with gas.
A lasting shutdown of Nord Stream 1 would not only penalize Europe’s leading economy.
According to the website of the Nord Stream company, the gas that arrives in Germany, in the town of Lubmin, then continues to be transported to Belgium, Denmark, France, Great Britain, the Netherlands “and to ‘other countries”.
A prolonged stoppage of deliveries would therefore aggravate the energy crisis in which Europe is already struggling, with prices soaring and the fear of a very difficult winter.
In Germany, the authorities are already considering rationing plans.
The chemical industry is particularly vulnerable, highly dependent on gas. The organization of the VCI sector says to prepare “worst case scenario”leading to a severe recession.
The giant BASF is considering putting some of the employees on partial unemployment.
“If we do not receive any more Russian gas (…) the quantities currently stored will only be enough for one or two months”, alert
Klaus Müller, President of the Federal Network Agency.
The Chamber of Deputies has already adopted a symbolic savings plan for it on Thursday: more heating above 20 degrees in winter and more hot water in individual offices.
