A weakened Russia becomes a useless partner for China
(Financial Times, September 20, 2022)
On February 4 this year, three weeks before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.
A joint statement released said that the friendship between Russia and China “has no limits.”
Seven months later, Mr. Xi may regret including that language.
Speaking before a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Uzbekistan, Putin promised to address China’s “questions and concerns” about the war in Ukraine.
Neither Putin nor Xi has elaborated on those concerns publicly. But it’s not hard to imagine what the concerns might be.
The war weakened Russia, destabilized the Eurasian continent, and strengthened the West. From the perspective of the Chinese government, none of these seem to be bright spots.
Miscalculation of the invasion of Ukraine
A February 4 joint statement made it clear that the basis of Russia-China friendship is a shared animosity towards US global leadership.
A short-term victory for Russia in Ukraine — and the United States has only been withdrawing from Afghanistan for a few months — would seriously damage America’s prestige and influence. It would have taken a heavy blow.
It was also convenient for China. There is even a possibility that it was set up for an attack on Taiwan.
The reality is the opposite.
The prolongation of the Ukraine conflict, and the prospect of even Russia’s defeat, is a major strategic setback for China.
As Nigel Gold-Davies of the UK Institute for International Strategies (IISS) put it, “China has plenty of reasons to be unhappy.”
The most obvious of these is that China’s most important partner in the international community is Russia itself.