The focus is on the scandal of the Koldo case, that monopolizes not only the media news but also the conversations within the Government and the PSOE, with a deep tear and great concern regarding the dramatic end of the crisis. The event has ended with the former organization secretary, José Luis Ábalos, in the Mixed Group and suspended from militancy. But discreetly, the PSOE and Junts have taken advantage of these days to intensify their negotiations on the amnesty law, essential to pave the way for a subsequent Budget pact and thus shore up the legislature and the majority that allows the measures to be approved in Congress. key to the management of the progressive coalition.
At the worst moment for the Government in the three months it has been in place, and one of the hardest of Pedro Sánchez’s five and a half years in La Moncloa, it is becoming increasingly politically necessary to resolve this issue that was truncated a year ago. month, when Junts decided to vote once morest the law that they themselves had agreed with the PSOE and thus return it to the Justice Commission. Now time is even more pressing. Next week, on the 7th, the extension ends and if the commission is not convened – it must be done 48 hours before, on Tuesday – the law might fall. In Congress there is some legal debate regarding the possibility of extending that date, but it is not clear. And in any case, it does not seem the intention of the PSOE or Junts or the other allies to further stretch something that has already been delayed for more than a month.
The socialists are eager to leave behind the amnesty, which is the key that opens the door to the Budgets and all the relevant measures that the Government is preparing, and the independentistas also need this rule to be approved as soon as possible, despite the fact that the PP will put all possible obstacles in the Senate, so that the leaders who are outside Spain can return, especially Carles Puigdemont, from Junts, and Marta Rovira, from ERC. But above all, so that the middle cadres or citizens without political weight who are waiting for a trial and a possible conviction for acts of the process can avoid jail or other penalties. The amnesty is of interest to everyone, and that is why the sources consulted from both the Government and the independentists assume that it would have to be closed this week. Different sources agree that positions have become closer in recent weeks, although no one wants to take the agreement for granted following the frustrating previous experience.
The Government maintains a scrupulous silence in public, although in private messages are sent that trust in an agreement. The leader of Junts, Carles Puigdemont, who has also maintained at all times the pact of silence that he has established with La Moncloa, pointed out this Wednesday in comments to a group of journalists in Strasbourg the idea that he is confident that there will be an agreement . “The best we can do is let there be calm negotiations until the end and not speak in public. We are now at an important moment in the legislature, which is the amnesty law. We focus on this and hope that in the end there is an agreement, but I will not say anything more,” said the former president and MEP. “Neither optimism nor pessimism, because we have always been moved by realism,” he concluded in the European Parliament, where he attended the plenary session. At this point, in which the PSOE has accepted the amnesty and Junts in return has agreed to support the investiture, several leaders consulted on both sides insist that going back is now unfeasible for both.
The PSOE maintains the red line that marked the break a month ago, that is, that the law cannot be touched to include all types of terrorism crimes, as Junts requested, because that would mean risking the rule being declared unconstitutional in Spain. or that European justice would take it down. But the socialists are negotiating with Junts formulas to guarantee that all the independentists involved in the process They enter into the amnesty, since that was the political pact. The technical discussion to achieve this political objective is being very intense, and many formulas have been used to reach the same objective: to be sure that there will be no room for judges to skip the amnesty and leave out relevant politicians like Puigdemont and Rovira. .
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What seems to have been ruled out, because Junts was not interested, is the idea of modifying the Criminal Procedure Law to reduce investigation periods. The PSOE has put it on the table until the end, but everything indicates that the independentists do not see it as a real solution to their specific problem. In any case, the negotiation is not closed and there are many possible solutions on the table. The PSOE is open to technical adjustments to the rule to guarantee its compliance and limit the margin of the judges to the maximum, but as long as the solution does not involve touching terrorism.
This matter is handled very discreetly by a very small group of leaders, something that has been complicated because one of them, Jordi Turull, organizational secretary of Junts, has been hospitalized since Monday following suffering a heart attack. The negotiations continue without him, although he is a key political player due to his direct contact with Santos Cerdán, his counterpart in the PSOE. The team of Félix Bolaños, the main architect of the law, is working to find a technical solution that guarantees the constitutionality of the norm and can at the same time reassure Junts with the certainty that no judge will be able to make the law void. .
The amnesty, despite the wear and tear it entails, might thus remove the Government from an environment in which the opposition tries to install the idea that the Executive will not be able to move forward under these conditions and will end up calling elections at some point. The socialists are still in shock following the departure of Ábalos to the Mixed Group. The former minister made a round of various media in which he continued to defend that he believes that he has been treated unfairly, and pointed out that it was Santos Cerdán who introduced him to Koldo García – he recommended him to be his driver, although later it was Ábalos who offered him a lift. in the ministry until he reached a lot of power—but he did not seek a direct clash and the management chose not to answer him.
‘Abalos Effect’
The PSOE leadership trusts that the Ábalos effect will be exhausted little by little, especially if there are no more judicial developments. Although the wear is being much deeper than expected. Sánchez has opted for the counterattack, reminding the PP of its corruption cases and how he acted following them. The crisis is serious, and the Government’s moment of weakness seems indisputable. But the key to the sustainability of the Executive is not there, but in the majority that supports it. And the negotiations these days with all the groups on different issues – not only with Junts, the Catalan Budgets with ERC and the various transfers with the PNV have just been closed – indicate that the majority is far from being broken. But everything now depends on the key to the investiture: the amnesty.
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