Prospects of a Strategic Pact between US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia: A Game-Changer in the Middle East

2023-09-25 12:34:00
US President Joe Biden shakes hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York on September 20 (Archyde.com)

Muhammad bin Salman does not hide his satisfaction at the prospect of a strategic pact between the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia. In a rare televised interview on September 20, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia and the country’s de facto ruler acknowledged with a smile that an agreement is in sight. “Every day we are closer. It seems that for the first time it is real, serious.” A pact would be, he said, “the biggest historic agreement since the Cold War.” On September 22, Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, confirmed that the trio of countries were “on the cusp” of an agreement. It would be, he said, a “quantum leap.”

Formal diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia, the richest and arguably most influential Arab state, and Israel, the Jewish state long ostracized by the kingdom, have been a long time coming. Since he became crown prince in 2017, MBS, as Prince Muhammad is known, has held at least one secret meeting with Mr Netanyahu. Both countries have a common rival in Iran and do business quietly. But in 2020 the Abraham Accords were signed between Israel and several Arab states, without Saudi Arabia. Few expected that ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be formalized during the lifetime of the prince’s father, King Salman, who belongs to a generation for which any relationship with Israel was unthinkable.

However, the incentives to reach an agreement have become more acute. For the Saudis, the motivation is a new strategic alliance with the United States. The two countries maintain a security relationship, but the kingdom wants a more formal defense pact, not least because the intensification of Iran’s nuclear program means it is on the verge of having nuclear weapons, which would upset the security balance of the region. The talks include the possibility of Saudi Arabia developing a civil nuclear energy program, with an American-run uranium enrichment facility on Saudi soil, according to The Wall Street Journal, just as Aramco, the Saudi oil giant, was originally run. by Americans. Although this effort would be civilian in nature, and the US’s unspoken goal is to avoid a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, MBS says he reserves the right to pursue nuclear weapons if Iran crosses the threshold. “If they get one, we have to get one… but we don’t want to see that,” he said in his television interview.

For President Joe Biden, a new diplomatic and defense framework in the Middle East, backed by the United States and built around the two regional powers, would be a major foreign policy achievement with which to enter an election year. During his election campaign several years ago he promised to treat Saudi Arabia as “the pariah that it is” following the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. But today he commands realpolitik. His Administration sees an agreement as a way for the United States to adapt to a new geopolitical era, in which it remains the ultimate guarantor of the security of the Gulf States for decades to come, even as their economies tilt toward Asia. thereby frustrating Iran, calming energy markets and preventing China from drawing the Middle East into its sphere of influence.

Internal obstacles remain significant. Let’s start with the Saudis. Even an almost absolute monarchy must take public opinion into account. Only 2% of young Saudis support normalizing relations with Israel, according to the 2023 Arab Youth Survey, compared to 75% in the United Arab Emirates and 73% in Egypt (both countries maintain formal ties with the Jewish state ). That explains the crown prince’s repeated references in his interview to the Israeli military occupation of the Palestinians. “For us, the Palestinian issue is very important. We have to solve that part,” he stressed. Parallel talks between the Saudis and Palestinians are intensifying. An official Palestinian delegation is scheduled to visit Riyadh in October. Palestinian officials have been visiting the Saudi capital almost weekly in recent months, according to a West Bank source.

However, in his televised interview, the prince did not mention the Arab Peace Initiative, a plan approved in 2002 by Saudi Arabia and other Arab states. It provided for relations with Israel only following the Israeli withdrawal from all the territories it captured in the 1967 Six-Day War, including East Jerusalem, and the establishment of a Palestinian state. Instead, the crown prince made vague promises of a deal that would give Palestinians “what they need” and guarantee them “a good life.” All sides paint a new Middle East, connected by new transport and energy links, where economic opportunities transcend old hatreds.

MBS’s vagueness on Palestinian rights is an acknowledgment of Netanyahu’s internal difficulties. All Israeli leaders have longed to end their country’s regional isolation, which has lasted since its founding in 1948. For Netanyahu, who faces widespread protests once morest the policies of his far-right government, as well as accusations of corruption (which he denies), peace with the Saudis is also a golden opportunity to polish his tarnished legacy. The chaotic first nine months of his last term may explain why the politician who for so many years has denounced the dangers of Iran’s nuclear program seems willing to accept Saudi uranium enrichment as part of any package.

An agreement might cause a shock in Israeli politics with unpredictable consequences. His hardline coalition includes parties representing religious Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank, who oppose any concessions to the Palestinians. The settlers are also well represented in their own party, the Likud. All warn that they will oppose any compromise or agreement in which Israel has to relinquish control of any territory.

Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, appears to have realized that the Saudis will no longer wait for a Palestinian state to establish ties with Israel. But he would like Israel to at least stop building new settlements and guarantee greater Palestinian autonomy in the West Bank. Even that would bring down Netanyahu’s current coalition. “The only formula that the coalition will defend is that the Palestinians receive Saudi money for their needs, but not more rights,” says a senior right-wing politician.

If MBS backs even part of the Palestinian demands, Netanyahu will likely lose the support of part of his coalition and, with it, his majority in the Knesset. His only option would be to use the prospect of a historic agreement to win the support of centrist parties that have so far refused to join his government and would demand significant political changes to do so now. Netanyahu might take the opportunity to reorganize his coalition, replacing the far-right with centrists. But while the centrist parties led by Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid favor a deal with Saudi Arabia (although Lapid has expressed serious reservations regarding the prospect of Saudi nuclear enrichment), both have the bitter experience of having served in their previous governments and they remain justifiably reluctant to revive it.

Even Biden may have a hard time selling the deal at home. The prospect of a Saudi nuclear program will worry Americans wary of proliferation in the region. Both progressives in his own Democratic party, who abhor the Saudis’ human rights record, and Republicans, who will oppose anything his administration proposes, can obstruct him. His hope is that Netanyahu, who remains popular among Republicans, can convince his opponents. The potential for an American-Saudi-Israeli deal may be enormous, but the political window to achieve it is small. “If we don’t get it done in the next few months,” Netanhayu said, “we might set it back quite a few years.”

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