Prospects and Challenges in US-China Relations: Insights from Janet Yellen’s Visit to China

2023-07-10 07:42:42

Rei Chingde discussing a visit to the U.S. on the occasion of attending the inauguration ceremony of the President of Paraguay

(Seoul = Yonhap News) Correspondent In Gyo-joon = U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s visit to China on the 6th to 9th succeeded in establishing a framework for ‘situation management’ that might prevent conflicts caused by misjudgment between the US and China, but conflicts between the two countries and It is evaluated that the confrontation is just at the level of ‘sealing’.

While no progress has been made in discussions on key issues such as the de-risking of high-tech semiconductors by the U.S. exclusion from China, China’s restrictions on exports of gallium and germanium, and the U.S.’s high tariffs to China, This means that if an unexpected incident occurs, it can go wrong at any time.

US Treasury Secretary and Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Shaking Hands

(Beijing AFP=Yonhap News) U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen (left) and Chinese Vice Premier Heifeng Hei Feng shake hands at the Diaoyutai State Guest House in Beijing, China, on the 8th. On this day, Secretary Yellen said that the US and China should communicate directly to avoid mutual misunderstandings. 2023.07.09 [e-mail]

One of them is the possibility that Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-de will visit the United States. Candidate Rai is discussing a visit to the United States on the occasion of attending the inauguration ceremony of President Santiago Pena of Paraguay in August.

Although the US-China relationship has barely been sealed, it is pointed out that there will be great variability in the future.

◇ Despite the restoration of Yellen’s ‘situation management’ channel, tensions on key issues between the US and China remain

In the meantime, the United States has defined China as a strategic competitor and has been pressuring China for several years on various economic and security issues, and China is confronting it head-on with the banner of ‘rising as a great power’.

Because of this, the crisis of conflict between the US and China has heightened in all areas, from cutting-edge semiconductor issues to territorial disputes in Taiwan and the South China Sea and the war in Ukraine.

It is for this reason that the United States sent Treasury Secretary Yellen to China this time, following Secretary of State Tony Blincoln last month. It is believed that if ‘situation management’ is not done properly, it can lead to an immediate situation.

Secretary Yellen, who called herself a ‘dove with China’ in US political relations, expressed the US’ willingness to manage the situation in a soft tone through four 10-hour talks during this visit to China. At the same time, he announced that there was no change in his position on de-risking and public high tariffs.

As expected, China also stuck to its original position of restricting exports of gallium and germanium. Nevertheless, the US Daily Wall Street Journal (WSJ) evaluated that this time, US-China relations have made some progress and have passed obstacles so that high-level dialogue channels can be restored.

At least, securing a channel for economic and security discussions between the US and China is an achievement.

Economic and security communication channels between the US and China have not been operating properly for several years, including during the COVID-19 pandemic (pandemic), and even though the economic team of ‘Xi Jinping’s 3rd term’ has been replaced, there has been no exchange between the US and China at all. Secretary Yellen’s visit to China became an opportunity.

Minister Yellen, who visited China for the first time in four years, met with Prime Minister Li Chang, Vice Premier Heifeng, Finance Minister Liu Kun, and Secretary Pan Gongsheng of the People’s Bank Party Committee, who is expected to take office as the president of the People’s Bank of China, the central bank of China. Opinions were shared.

Minister Yellen’s statement that “it was a direct, substantive, and constructive dialogue” prior to leaving China was read as a conscious comment on the operation of economic and security channels. Chinese state media such as Xinhua News Agency generally responded that it was “a practical exchange.”

According to Archyde.com on the 10th, Finance Minister Liu Kun also announced that the US and China had agreed on high-level exchanges in the economic field during Minister Yellen’s visit to China.

However, it is not insignificant that the two countries did not step aside from each other in discussions related to ‘de-risking’ and ‘restrictions on exports of gallium and germanium’, in which interests collided head-on.

While emphasizing that decoupling (separation of the supply chain, etc.) will not be carried out, Minister Yellen emphasized the need for China to derisk semiconductors that might lead to the manufacture of advanced weapons that might threaten the security of the United States.

Biden and Xi Jinping met in Bali last November

[AP 연합뉴스 자료사진]

China also used national security as an excuse. The export restrictions on gallium and germanium, which will come into effect on August 1, were also maintained because of national security and interests.

China, however, did not mention additional pressure measures.

Both sides were also tense over the issue of the US imposing high tariffs on Chinese products. This is a factor that not only adversely affects China’s exports to the US, but also exacerbates inflation (inflation) in the US, but no solution has been found.

As such, both the US and China responded to key conflicts and confrontations in a “My Way” way.

Appearing on CBS’s “Face the Nation” broadcast on the 9th, US local time, Yellen said, “The purpose of the visit to China was to prevent the US and China from getting involved in an unintended escalation of the situation that would harm each other’s economic relationship.” did.

◇ Let’s leave things that are difficult to solve… A Look at the Possibilities of Climate Change Cooperation

Diplomats look forward to the possibility of a ‘drive-together relationship’ in which both the US and China acknowledge their differences on issues that conflict with each other, but pursue issues that are mutually beneficial first.

In particular, attention is being paid to cooperation once morest climate change.

According to foreign media, Kerry Mi’s special envoy on climate change will visit China this week.

In a speech at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2020, President Xi Jinping has shown his commitment to climate change issues to the extent that he presented the so-called ‘double-bullet’ goal of peaking carbon emissions in 2030 and realizing carbon neutrality in 2060.

Of course, China has recently expanded coal-fired power plants amid the crisis of new energy shortages in the past 1-2 years, but China’s willingness to cope with climate change is clear.

The United States also lacked efforts to cope with climate change during the presidency of Donald Trump, but has changed to an active attitude since the Joe Biden administration.

In light of this, the international community is paying attention to whether the US and China, the world’s largest emitters of environmental pollution, will reach a ‘meaningful’ agreement through Kerry’s visit to China.

At a meeting with Chinese climate change officials on the 8th, Secretary Yellen also stressed that climate change is a top priority to be addressed and that “the world’s two largest economies must work together to face this challenge.”

If U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Lamondo visits China following Special Envoy Kerry’s visit, the issue of high tariffs between the U.S. and China might be discussed in depth, drawing attention.

In addition to cooperation on climate change, cooperation in dealing with the fentanyl crisis can also be said to be an issue on which it is possible to find a point of contact between the US and China. While the United States is suffering from fentanyl, the so-called ‘zombie drug’, China is a major supplier of fentanyl raw materials.

While China acknowledges the need for international cooperation on the drug issue, it is in the position that it is wrong for the US to blindly label a Chinese company that only produces raw materials for painkiller fentanyl as illegal.

Last year alone, 110,000 Americans died from drug overdose, and two-thirds of their deaths were from synthetic drugs such as fentanyl.

For this reason, the United States, which has already launched the ‘Global Coalition to Counter Synthetic Drugs’, has started responding to the fentanyl crisis. However, China did not participate in this solidarity meeting.

Lai Qingde, presidential candidate of Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party

[대만 중국시보 캡처. 재판매 및 DB 금지]

◇ ‘Violent opposition from China’ Taiwan’s Lai Qingde card to visit US suddenly rises

It is not easy to gauge the explosive power of Candidate Lei Ching-de’s visit to the United States at this time.

However, it is expected that China will take a similar response given the precedent in which US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August of last year and conducted military drills to invade Taiwan and cut off major communication channels with the US.

Candidate Lai is promoting a visit to the United States similar to President Tsai’s visit to the United States on the occasion of visits to Guatemala and Belize in Central America in April. He plans to meet key figures in the U.S. while passing through the U.S. on the way to attend the inauguration ceremony of President Pena of Paraguay.

China’s position seems firm. The difference in independence propensity is that he is the successor of the President and that he will not just ignore the visit of Candidate Lai, who has identified himself as a “pragmatic Taiwanese independence activist” for a long time.

Recently, candidate Lai has been sending a conciliatory message to China, such as announcing that he has no plans to declare Taiwan’s independence when he is elected president, but China is clearly determined to strongly block candidate Lai’s election as president.

China, which has virtually stopped exchanges between the authorities on both sides of the Strait (China and Taiwan) since the election of President Tsai in 2016, is in the position that exchanges can be resumed only following a regime change with the election of candidates Houyoui (KMT) or Ke Wenje (People’s Party).

Therefore, if Taiwan and the United States agree on Lai’s visit to the United States, and China responds with an armed demonstration in the Taiwan Strait, there is a high possibility that the US-China relationship will turn sour once more.

Biden’s US administration is in a position to adhere to the principle of ‘one China’, but opposes China’s unilateral change in the status quo using force, and adheres to a policy of increasing the supply of advanced weapons to guarantee Taiwan’s self-defense.

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