Home sales and the pace of price increases will remain strong in 2022 in Canada, and these increases are expected to continue in 2023 and 2024, according to the Housing Market Outlook published by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. (CMHC) Thursday.
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The CMHC report, which looks to the next three years, says that by the end of 2023 or the beginning of 2024, “sales and price growth in the housing market will approach historical averages but high price levels will persist.
“These factors will increase pressure on the affordability of homeownership,” the report’s authors say.
“Improving employment and immigration levels should play a key role as pandemic-related restrictions continue to ease. In 2023 and 2024, price growth will approach long-term averages, but sales and housing starts are expected to remain above the 5- and 10-year averages.
Markets where listings are already low, including Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal, should continue to drive price growth.
According to the CMHC, housing starts in the census metropolitan area (CMA) of Montreal reached their highest level in 30 years in 2021. In 2022, they will remain historically high, but they will decline from the record level recorded last year.
“The Montreal housing market has recently seen significant volumes of housing starts and transactions on the resale market. In 2022, the pace of construction and sales will decrease. The scarcity of supply will ensure that price increases will remain significant,” analyzed Francis Cortellino, senior specialist at CMHC.
For the Quebec region, market analyst Nathan R. Lea estimates that the level of residential construction should experience a moderate decline, due to a drop in rental housing starts.
“In addition, the slight decline in demand for properties should cause an easing of the resale market and a moderate slowdown in price growth over the forecast horizon,” he added.