2023-07-06 19:32:41
SpecialJanet Yellen
The visit of the US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, to China, between the sixth and the ninth of this month, carries many indications, especially as it comes after a series of meetings that brought together US officials with their counterparts in China in recent months, and after the visit of Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, to Beijing last month.
The visit is scheduled to permeate the discussion of “responsible” management of relations between the two rival powers, and the range of economic issues between the two countries.
The succession of US-Chinese meetings in this way is a step that analysts considered within the efforts of “tactical calm between the two countries” and attempts to set standards for competition between them.
During her visit to China, Yellen – who is the second US cabinet-level official to travel to China within a month – discusses with members of the Chinese government the importance of “the two countries responsibly managing their relations, as the world’s leading economies,” according to what she announced. US Treasury.
Reducing stress
According to the expert specializing in international relations, Dr. Ayman Samir, the succession of visits between officials of the two countries, especially the recent visit of Anthony Blinken and the US Treasury Secretary to China, “reflects their desire not to turn the competition between them into a conflict,” ruling out at the same time the improvement of each party’s vision towards the other over He took place in those meetings, which he infers by pointing out that “while Blinken was returning to Washington after his visit to Beijing, US President Joe Biden was describing Chinese President Xi Jinping as a dictator!”
During the recent period, it seemed that relations between Beijing and Washington were heading towards tactical improvement, which was reflected in the mutual visits and meetings between different parties in the two countries, among the most prominent of these visits:
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s visit to China last month. Officials of the US State Department and the National Security Council met with their counterparts in Beijing last month. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan’s two-day talks in Vienna with China’s top foreign policy official. A secret trip by CIA Director Bill Burns to China last May. Conversations between Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao and US Trade Representative Catherine Tai on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum in Detroit last May.
And the international relations expert indicates, in exclusive statements to the “Sky News Arabia Economy” website, that the presence of the US Treasury Secretary in China is evidence of the two countries’ ability to communicate, and that the aim of the visit is to remove any wrong conviction on the other side, and that the two countries can work in common spaces. .
He describes the visit as “a visit to search for a common space, reduce tension, and cool the conflict that has not stopped, in addition to setting a general framework and clear and well-known criteria between the two parties for competition, including technological competition.”
US Treasury bonds
It is expected that talks will take place on “US Treasury bonds” with the aim of persuading Beijing to stop reducing its holdings of those bonds, in a way that contributes to helping the United States address the issue of inflation.
Samir points out that China’s reduction of its holdings of US Treasury bonds may lead to a problem with regard to the availability of funds despite the increase in the debt ceiling, in addition to China’s decision to postpone the sale of Chinese bonds or debts owed by America so that there is no pressure on the US budget and the dollar.
According to US Treasury data, “China’s investments, which come second in the list of major investors in US Treasury bonds and bills, amounted to about $859.4 billion last January, compared to $1299.9 billion in January of 2022.”
And the international relations expert states that the United States, through that visit, wants to send a message that it does not want to harm the Chinese economy or thwart its growth through the agreements that Washington concluded on electronic chips and semiconductors with South Korea, Japan or even Vietnam and the Philippines, to tell China that it is Interested in Chinese growth, which is a major part of the global economy equation.
Anthony Blinken had expressed this during his visit to China last month, as part of a group of messages he launched there.
Samir indicates that the United States is keen to keep China behind in the economy, so it stopped selling some advanced technology to it in the past period, and in the past two months the US Congress has taken more than one decision that ultimately led to withholding or preventing the arrival of high-tech technology to the Chinese side, while The US Treasury Secretary wants to make it clear to the Chinese side that this step is not intended to harm China.
The international relations expert believes that the trade war between the two countries will not stop, especially in certain sectors such as semiconductors, intellectual property, and issues of espionage on trade, major companies, and industrial companies between the two countries, stressing the need to organize this war and competition and not slide into other dimensions that harm the Chinese, American, and global economies.
At a time when the discourse of “disengagement between the two countries” is escalating within American circles, Samir points out at the same time that the United States aims to control the trade balance between it and China.
Calm the situation and prevent the deterioration of relations
While the expert on Chinese affairs, deputy head of the Arabic edition of China Today magazine, Hussein Ismail, explains in exclusive statements to the “Sky News Arabia Economy” website, that the US Treasury Secretary’s visit to China comes within the framework of the two sides’ attempt to calm the situation and control the size of the differences between them in light of The increasing tensions between Washington and Beijing, the latest of which was the announcement by the Chinese Ministry of Defense, on Wednesday, that Taiwan is turning into a storehouse of gunpowder because of the American arms supplies to it.
He adds, “In addition to the differences in strategic interests between the two countries, there is competition and conflict in the South China Sea region, which is one of the most important hotspots in the Southeast Asian region, as it is an area of conflict over the extension of influence between the two powers… in addition to the conflict in the field of technology and trade.” In addition to the divergent positions of the two countries on many international issues, most notably the Russian-Ukrainian crisis.
As for economic files, the expert in Chinese affairs points out that the volume of trade exchange between the two countries is close to a trillion dollars, and therefore there are huge commercial and economic interests between them, which makes them keen not to deteriorate economic relations against the backdrop of political and geostrategic conflicts.
The expert on Chinese affairs appreciates the visit of the US official in charge of the trade and finance file to China, describing that visit as “very important”; Especially since China is the largest holder of US bonds, and there are many US companies operating in China, as well as a huge volume of Chinese exports to the US.
It is expected that Janet Yellen will seek during her visit to China to maintain a minimum level of understanding with regard to trade, investment and financial files between the two countries. Relations at the political level, unlike with regard to economic relations, they seek to prevent the deterioration of relations to a point beyond what it is.
He points out that the administration of US President Joe Biden deals with China differently from former President Donald Trump, because the latter witnessed the imposition of many sanctions on China with regard to Chinese exports, and China sometimes responded with similar measures, while in the Biden administration the file did not escalate. economy with equal intensity.
Understandings on commercial issues
He describes the visit as “an attempt to maintain a minimum level of differences between the two countries, and perhaps reach understandings on some controversial issues related to trade and the economy in particular,” noting that the most prominent of these issues are related to the fees imposed by the Trump administration, and discussions about canceling or reducing these fees from On the side of the US administration, and China may also call for lifting the ban on some US technology exports to Beijing, as well as the resumption of economic consultations between the two countries, which were suspended after the visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, and there may also be thinking of providing some kind of facilities that are granted Chinese companies investing in the United States.
Pushing the economic file away from political conflicts
The expert in Chinese affairs believes that there is a common desire between Washington and Beijing to push the economic file between them away from differences in other files, expecting that there will be some positive results, and at the same time he believes that these results will not rise to the level of ambition that Beijing or Washington hopes. ; As the relations between them remain linked to the overall relations.
And he explains that whenever there is an appropriate political atmosphere, there is a clear development in the volume of economic exchanges between the two countries, but in light of this campaign between the two countries, each party is trying to undermine the other, indicating that the level of acceptance of China in America at the popular level is diminishing, and the state of aversion to the United States The United States there is clear, and therefore the general atmosphere does not lead to a significant improvement even in the economic file.
Revival of relationships
For his part, the Asian affairs expert, Dr. Jalal Rahim, said in exclusive statements to “Sky News Arabia Economy” that the visit comes in the context of restoring the pulse to the bilateral relations between the two countries after a practical break of more than five years. Especially since there is a cold war between the two countries and fierce competition over international influence and military and economic policies.
He indicates that with the advent of the US administration headed by Biden in the year 2020, that administration used a policy of disengagement between the two countries, whether technological, industrial or commercial, and it urged American companies to gradually withdraw from China, and to prevent strategic investments by major companies, in addition to other companies. Which invests in the field of technology, especially used in the military field, which America considers to be of high risk, and therefore there is a gradient on the part of the US administration to stop this commercial exchange between the two countries.
And he continues, “But the US administration has finally concluded that its previous approach to disengagement, which caused great losses to it, is useless,” noting that this is what the US Treasury Secretary hinted to before Congress last month.
The Asian affairs expert stresses the importance of the visit, which is expected to replace the disengagement, to try to mitigate the damage or limit the damage and identify specific areas of high risk in dealing with the People’s Republic of China, describing this step as a tactical and strategic retreat from the US side in the field of trade war.
It also indicates that the American attempts at rapprochement with China will not result in an end to the trade war, but rather direct it in a direction that leaves the least damage to the United States in terms of trade and finance, while at the same time ensuring the technological containment of China.
symbolic visit
Rahim Hasm excludes any files in trade relations and areas of disagreement between the two countries, following the visit, which he considered to be “symbolic and will not return with tangible successes that could change the existing trade war between the two countries.” It is a visit to break the ice after a five-year break and establish relations and a kind of communication between the two countries. the two countries in the field of trade.
And he continues, “There is no great hope for resolving any files, because the visit comes against the background of two new Chinese laws,” pointing out that the last law that entered into force is the Chinese anti-espionage law, which has received international criticism, especially in the United States, and it talks about everything that is It threatens Chinese interests, which is a loose word under which any scientific and even academic commercial activity between the two countries falls under the Chinese espionage law, which makes American companies fear more pressure from the Chinese authorities on them and restrictions on their technological and manufacturing activities.
As for the second law, he points out that tightening procedures for exporting Chinese materials used in the manufacture of electronic chips, at a time when America is pressuring all international companies that export electronic chips to impose a blockade on China, in an effort to stop its escalation and technological development, and thus impose a technological blockade on it. This warns that the visit comes within a tense framework between the two countries at all levels.
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