2023-08-21 10:42:45
The German economy is expected to stagnate in the third quarter of 2023 and thus prolong the slump that has hit it for a year, with apathy in its industry, the central bank of Germany said on Monday.
The GDP of Europe’s largest economy “will probably remain largely unchanged once more” from July to September, compared to the previous quarter, forecasts the Bundesbank in its monthly economic bulletin.
This should prolong the stagnation of growth (0%) observed from April to June, according to provisional data, corrected for seasonal and calendar variations (CVS), published at the end of July by the statistical office Destatis.
The final second-quarter growth figure will be released on Friday.
Previously, Germany experienced two consecutive quarters of decline at the turn of 2023, by 0.4% and 0.1%. The country is now perceived as the “balloon” of the economy of the euro zone.
As in previous quarters, industrial production should have remained “probably weak” during the summer months because “foreign demand remains on a downward trend”, penalizing exports, once the spearhead of growth, according to the Bundesbank.
This weakness will persist despite the continued reduction in bottlenecks in supplies, which makes it possible to fill order books more quickly.
The otherwise high financing costs, due to the aggressive rise in rates by the European Central Bank to curb inflation, will continue to weigh on investment and construction (BTP), adds the institution.
Household consumer spending will continue to support the economy, once morest a backdrop of “stable job market” and “strong wage growth” while inflation ebbs.
Due to the rise in wages, inflation in Germany, which fell to 6.5% in July, is “likely to remain above 2%” for “some time” despite the concomitant fall in prices. energy, according to the Bundesbank.
Over the year 2023, the main German economic institutes expect an estimated decline of between 0.2 and 0.4% of GDP in Germany, the IMF for its part expecting -0.3%.
Germany would thus do less well than its European neighbors, including France.
The German economy is expected to stagnate in the third quarter of 2023 and thus prolong the slump that has hit it for a year, with apathy in its industry, the central bank of Germany said on Monday.
GDP in Europe’s biggest economy is “likely to remain largely unchanged once more” from July to September, compared to…
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