There is a lot of solar panels in Pakistan at the moment. According to a Bloomberg NEF report, 13 GW of solar panels were imported from China in the first half of 2024. According to one project developer, importing such a large number of solar panels resulted in solar panels being “seen on the roads.” In 2023, Pakistan will have a demand for solar panels of about 3.5 GW, and in early 2024, Pakistan will be the target for Chinese solar exports. became the third largest market.
Muhammad Mujahid, executive director of Innovo Corp, said that in 2022, Pakistan’s central bank faced a shortage of dollars, leading to a trade deficit and an informal ban on imports. Only essential goods such as medicine and food could be imported, which meant that distributors were unable to bring in solar panels for nearly nine months.
Despite these restrictions, some solar panels were imported. Generally, a letter of credit (LC) is required from the importer’s bank to import goods. However during the foreign exchange crisis in 2022, issuance of LCs was limited. This situation provided an opportunity for the big players in the market to take advantage.
Hussain Khan of Wateen Energy Solutions said that the direct cost of importing the panels was $0.15 per watt while they were being sold at $0.30 per watt in the local market, a 100 percent profit in the trading business. Seeing the profit rate, everyone started ordering solar panels. Companies that were also exporting rice ventured into this business. For example, they exported rice and now they could bring their dollars back from other countries and suddenly the distribution of solar panels increased significantly.
Mohammad Mujahid said that selling solar panels was not a problem and no experience was necessary, meaning that it was not difficult for you to amortize solar panels from grade A manufacturing companies and sell them in the local market. .
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How are market fluctuations impacting profit margins in the solar energy sector?
**Interview with Muhammad Mujahid and Hussain Khan on the Solar Panel Boom in Pakistan**
**Interviewer:** Thank you both for joining us today. The solar panel situation in Pakistan seems to have taken quite an interesting turn recently. Muhammad, can you elaborate on the current influx of solar panels in the country?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Absolutely. As reported, we imported a staggering 13 GW of solar panels from China in just the first half of 2024. This has noticeably increased the visibility of solar panels across the country, with many simply “seen on the roads.” In 2023, we had a projected demand of around 3.5 GW, and now Pakistan is set to be the third-largest market for Chinese solar exports.
**Interviewer:** That’s quite a significant rise. What factors contributed to this surge in imports?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Well, in 2022, the central bank faced a severe dollar shortage which led to a trade deficit and restrictions on imports, only allowing essential goods. Even during that time, we still managed to import some solar panels. However, the limited issuance of letters of credit meant that only bigger companies could operate effectively in that market, leading to a bit of a gold rush as people sought to take advantage of the price differences.
**Interviewer:** Hussain, you mentioned that the profit margins were substantial. What can you tell us about the cost dynamics in the solar market?
**Hussain Khan:** Certainly. The direct cost for importing solar panels was roughly $0.15 per watt, while they were being sold locally for about $0.30 per watt. This kind of profit margin attracted many players, including those who traditionally engaged in other sectors like rice export, creating a rapid influx of new distributors.
**Interviewer:** With so many panels flooding the market, what’s happening now regarding profit margins?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** As of 2024, the situation has flipped significantly. The market is saturated with solar panels, and profit margins have been drastically reduced. In some cases, businesses are even selling at a loss. I didn’t expect this mass exit from the market to happen so quickly; I anticipated it would take at least six months to a year.
**Interviewer:** That does sound concerning. Hussain, with the current market fluctuations, what’s driving investments into solar energy?
**Hussain Khan:** The commercial and industrial sectors are heavily investing in solar technology right now. Everyone with capital is going solar because it’s a straightforward investment—typically providing a return on investment in 18 to 24 months. Even with potential drops in net metering benefits, rising electricity prices mean that solar remains a viable option for most.
**Interviewer:** What challenges do you foresee affecting the solar market in the near future?
**Hussain Khan:** Challenges like currency devaluation and infrastructure inefficiencies play a significant role. As noted by NEPRA, increased electricity prices are often driven by demand fluctuations, distribution losses, and governance issues. These factors could impact future investments and the stability of the market.
**Interviewer:** Thank you both for your insights. The solar panel industry in Pakistan seems to be a double-edged sword right now. It will be interesting to see how the market evolves in the coming months.
**Muhammad Mujahid and Hussain Khan:** Thank you for having us!