There is a lot of solar panels in Pakistan at the moment. According to a Bloomberg NEF report, 13 GW of solar panels were imported from China in the first half of 2024. According to one project developer, importing such a large number of solar panels resulted in solar panels being “seen on the roads.” In 2023, the demand for solar panels in Pakistan is about 3.5 GW, and in early 2024, Pakistan will be the target for Chinese solar exports. became the third largest market.
Muhammad Mujahid, executive director of Innovo Corp, said that in 2022, Pakistan’s central bank faced a shortage of dollars, leading to a trade deficit and an informal ban on imports. Only essential goods such as medicine and food could be imported, which meant that distributors were unable to bring in solar panels for nearly nine months.
Despite these restrictions, some solar panels were imported. Generally, a letter of credit (LC) is required from the importer’s bank to import goods. However during the foreign exchange crisis in 2022, issuance of LCs was limited. This situation provided an opportunity for the big players in the market to take advantage.
Hussain Khan of Wateen Energy Solutions said that the direct cost of importing the panels was $0.15 per watt while they were being sold at $0.30 per watt in the local market, a 100 percent profit in the trading business. Seeing the profit rate, everyone started ordering solar panels. Companies that were also exporting rice ventured into this business. For example, they exported rice and now they could bring their dollars back from other countries and suddenly the distribution of solar panels increased significantly.
Mohammad Mujahid said that selling solar panels was not a problem and no experience was necessary, meaning that it was not difficult for you to amortize solar panels from grade A manufacturing companies and sell them in the local market. .
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What impact do you foresee the influx of solar panels from China will have on the local solar market and pricing strategies in Pakistan?
**Interview with Haniya Asad, Energy Finance Specialist at IEEFA**
**Interviewer**: Thank you for joining us, Haniya. There has been a significant influx of solar panels in Pakistan, with reports showing that 13 GW were imported from China in the first half of 2024. What has been the driving force behind this surge?
**Haniya Asad**: Thank you for having me. The primary driving force behind this surge is the rising electricity costs in Pakistan, coupled with a growing awareness of renewable energy solutions. As energy prices have climbed dramatically due to factors like currency devaluation and increasing demand, both residential and commercial sectors see solar panels as a viable long-term investment.
**Interviewer**: It’s interesting to note that despite a previous shortage of dollars leading to an informal ban on imports, the market has bounced back robustly. What does this tell us about the current state of the solar industry in Pakistan?
**Haniya Asad**: Indeed, it’s a clear indicator of the resilience of the market. When the central bank restricted imports to essentials in 2022, it created a bottleneck in availability, which was later followed by a massive pent-up demand. Now, we are seeing a wide open market where distributors and companies are eager to supply solar solutions. This recent spike suggests that stakeholders believe in the profitability and importance of solar energy for the country’s economic future.
**Interviewer**: Some developers have pointed out that the profit margins for solar panels are decreasing, with reports indicating that panels are even being sold at a loss. How is the market adapting to these changes?
**Haniya Asad**: The rapid influx of solar panels from enormous imports has definitely impacted profit margins. In the past, traders enjoyed higher profits, but now competition is fierce, and many are adjusting their business models. While some may sell at a loss, others will focus on volume and potentially diversify their offerings beyond just solar panels, such as installation or maintenance services. It’s a transitional phase where businesses are realigning to ensure long-term sustainability despite lower margins.
**Interviewer**: You’ve mentioned that “everybody who has capital is going solar.” What does this significant shift mean for the future of energy consumption in Pakistan?
**Haniya Asad**: This shift signifies a paradigm change in energy consumption. As more stakeholders invest in solar energy, we’re likely to see a reduction in reliance on conventional energy sources, which can have broader implications, including energy independence and reduced environmental impact. This pivot not only aligns with global sustainability goals but may also stimulate local economies through job creation in the renewable sector.
**Interviewer**: Lastly, given these developments, what advice would you give to potential investors looking at the solar market in Pakistan?
**Haniya Asad**: Potential investors should conduct thorough market research and remain aware of regulatory changes that affect the energy sector. Understanding the dynamics of supply and demand, as well as pricing trends, is crucial. Investing in solar is still attractive, especially as electricity prices are expected to continue rising. However, they should be cautious of market fluctuations and consider long-term strategies rather than short-term gains.
**Interviewer**: Thank you very much, Haniya, for sharing your insights with us today.
**Haniya Asad**: My pleasure! Thank you for having me.