There is a lot of solar panels in Pakistan at the moment. According to a Bloomberg NEF report, 13 GW of solar panels were imported from China in the first half of 2024. According to one project developer, importing such a large number of solar panels resulted in solar panels being “seen on the roads.” In 2023, Pakistan will have a demand for solar panels of about 3.5 GW, and in early 2024, Pakistan will be the target for Chinese solar exports. became the third largest market.
Muhammad Mujahid, executive director of Innovo Corp, said that in 2022, Pakistan’s central bank faced a shortage of dollars, leading to a trade deficit and an informal ban on imports. Only essential goods such as medicine and food could be imported, which meant distributors were unable to bring in solar panels for nearly nine months.
Despite these restrictions, some solar panels were imported. Generally, a letter of credit (LC) is required from the importer’s bank to import goods. However during the foreign exchange crisis in 2022, issuance of LCs was limited. This situation provided an opportunity for the big players in the market to take advantage.
Hussain Khan of Wateen Energy Solutions said that the direct cost of importing the panels was $0.15 per watt while they were being sold at $0.30 per watt in the local market, a 100 percent profit in the trading business. Seeing the profit rate, everyone started ordering solar panels. Companies that were also exporting rice ventured into this business. For example, they exported rice and now they could bring back their dollars from other countries and suddenly the distribution of solar panels increased significantly.
Mohammad Mujahid said that selling solar panels was not a problem and no experience was necessary, meaning that it was not difficult for you to amortize solar panels from grade A manufacturing companies and sell them in the local market. .
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How do you see the future of investment in solar energy evolving in Pakistan?
**Interview with Muhammad Mujahid, Executive Director of Innovo Corp**
*Interviewer:* Thank you for joining us, Muhammad. The recent influx of solar panels into Pakistan has certainly been notable. Can you tell us more about the current landscape of solar energy in the country?
*Muhammad Mujahid:* Absolutely. Currently, Pakistan is witnessing a surge in solar panel imports, particularly from China. The first half of 2024 saw about 13 GW of solar panels imported, highlighting the increasing demand for renewable energy. We estimate that by the end of 2023, the demand would reach around 3.5 GW. As a result, Pakistan is poised to become the third largest market for Chinese solar exports.
*Interviewer:* That’s an impressive statistic. However, you mentioned earlier that there were challenges in 2022 due to a foreign exchange crisis. Can you elaborate on that?
*Muhammad Mujahid:* Certainly. In 2022, the central bank faced significant dollar shortages, which led to a trade deficit and an informal ban on non-essential imports. This situation made it difficult for distributors to bring in solar panels for almost nine months. Although some panels did make their way through, the issuance of letters of credit was severely limited, creating an opportunity for larger market players to benefit from the restricted supply.
*Interviewer:* Interesting. It seems that the profit margins for solar panels have attracted many new entrants into the market. What can you tell us about that?
*Muhammad Mujahid:* Yes, the profit margins have been quite substantial. At one point, the cost to import panels was $0.15 per watt, while they were retailing at $0.30 per watt in the local market—that’s a 100% markup. This led many companies, even those outside the solar industry, like rice exporters, to diversify into solar panel distribution, creating a noticeable increase in availability.
*Interviewer:* However, the profit rates seem to have fluctuated recently. What changes have you observed in the market?
*Muhammad Mujahid:* In 2024, due to the influx of solar panels, profit rates have decreased significantly, with some panels even being sold at a loss. I honestly did not expect companies to exit the market as quickly as they are doing; I anticipated at least a year-long boom because the initial profits were extraordinary.
*Interviewer:* That’s quite a shift. Moving forward, how do you see the investment landscape for solar energy in Pakistan?
*Muhammad Mujahid:* The investment is pivoting primarily from commercial and industrial sectors. Both multinational and local firms are heavily investing in photovoltaic technology. It’s becoming clear that anyone with capital is now looking towards solar as a reliable investment. For instance, Wateen Energy Solutions has installed 30 MW of solar panels in the last 18 months and plans to increase that to about 50 MW by 2025.
*Interviewer:* And what about the return on investment? How quickly can investors expect to see revenue from solar installations?
*Muhammad Mujahid:* Generally, investors can expect to see a return on investment within 18 months to two years. Even if net metering becomes less profitable, solar energy is still a wise investment due to the rising electricity prices in Pakistan, driven by various economic and regulatory factors.
*Interviewer:* Thank you, Muhammad. Your insights provide a clear picture of the evolving solar energy market in Pakistan. We appreciate your time.
*Muhammad Mujahid:* Thank you for having me! I’m excited to see how the landscape continues to evolve.