There is a lot of solar panels in Pakistan at the moment. According to a Bloomberg NEF report, 13 GW of solar panels were imported from China in the first half of 2024. According to one project developer, importing such a large number of solar panels resulted in solar panels being “seen on the roads.” In 2023, the demand for solar panels in Pakistan is about 3.5 GW, and in early 2024, Pakistan will be the target for Chinese solar exports. became the third largest market.
Muhammad Mujahid, executive director of Innovo Corp, said that in 2022, Pakistan’s central bank faced a shortage of dollars, leading to a trade deficit and an informal ban on imports. Only essential goods such as medicine and food could be imported, which meant that distributors were unable to bring in solar panels for nearly nine months.
Despite these restrictions, some solar panels were imported. Generally, a letter of credit (LC) is required from the importer’s bank to import goods. However during the foreign exchange crisis in 2022, issuance of LCs was limited. This situation provided an opportunity for the big players in the market to take advantage.
Hussain Khan of Wateen Energy Solutions said that the direct cost of importing the panels was $0.15 per watt while they were being sold at $0.30 per watt in the local market, a 100 percent profit in the trading business. Seeing the profit rate, everyone started ordering solar panels. Companies that were also exporting rice ventured into this business. For example, they exported rice and now they could bring their dollars back from other countries and suddenly the distribution of solar panels increased significantly.
Mohammad Mujahid said that selling solar panels was not a problem and no experience was necessary, meaning that it was not difficult for you to amortize solar panels from grade A manufacturing companies and sell them in the local market. .
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What challenges did the solar industry in Pakistan face in 2022 due to dollar shortages and import restrictions?
**Interview with Muhammad Mujahid, Executive Director of Innovo Corp**
**Editor:** Thank you for joining us today, Muhammad. It seems like the solar energy market in Pakistan has seen a dramatic influx of solar panels recently. Can you tell us about the scale of this boom?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Certainly! In the first half of 2024 alone, Pakistan imported 13 GW of solar panels from China, making it the third-largest market for Chinese solar exports. It’s remarkable to see solar panels so widely distributed—they’re literally seen on the roads!
**Editor:** That’s an impressive number. However, you’ve mentioned that last year was quite challenging due to a shortage of dollars and restrictions on imports. How did that affect the solar industry?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Yes, in 2022, the central bank’s restrictions meant that essential goods were prioritized, leading to a near nine-month hiatus on solar panel imports. This disruption allowed larger players in the market to capitalize on the limited supply, often at inflated prices because the demand was still there.
**Editor:** Interesting. Can you elaborate on how market dynamics shifted during that period?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** The cost of importing solar panels was around $0.15 per watt, but they were sold locally for double that. This attracted not just traditional energy companies but even those from other sectors, like rice exporters, who recognized the potential profitability in solar panels once they found a way to repatriate their earnings.
**Editor:** And how do you see the market evolving moving forward, especially with the influx of solar panels leading to lower profit margins?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** We’re already witnessing reduced profitability due to the sheer volume of solar panels available, and in some cases, panels are being sold at a loss. It was unexpected for many firms to exit the solar market as quickly as they have. Initially, I’d anticipated a longer timeline for such shifts because of the capital invested.
**Editor:** So where is the investment for solar energy coming from?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Most of the investment has been from the commercial and industrial sectors. Local and multinational companies are heavily investing in photovoltaic technology as it’s seen as a straightforward investment, with a typical return on investment within 18 months to two years—even amidst rising electricity costs in Pakistan.
**Editor:** That leads to an important point regarding future electricity prices. How do you see the economic landscape affecting solar investments?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Although net metering might become less profitable, rising electricity prices will still make solar power a good long-term investment. Various factors such as currency devaluation, demand fluctuations, and governance challenges have contributed to increasing electricity rates.
**Editor:** Thank you so much, Muhammad. Your insights help us better understand not just the solar panel influx but the bigger picture of energy economics in Pakistan.
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Thank you for having me! It’s an exciting time for renewable energy in Pakistan, and I look forward to seeing how the market adapts moving forward.