There is a lot of solar panels in Pakistan at the moment. According to a Bloomberg NEF report, 13 GW of solar panels were imported from China in the first half of 2024. According to one project developer, importing such a large number of solar panels resulted in solar panels being “seen on the roads.” In 2023, the demand for solar panels in Pakistan is about 3.5 GW, and in early 2024, Pakistan will be the target for Chinese solar exports. became the third largest market.
Muhammad Mujahid, executive director of Innovo Corp, said that in 2022, Pakistan’s central bank faced a shortage of dollars, leading to a trade deficit and an informal ban on imports. Only essential goods such as medicine and food could be imported, which meant that distributors were unable to bring in solar panels for nearly nine months.
Despite these restrictions, some solar panels were imported. Generally, a letter of credit (LC) is required from the importer’s bank to import goods. However during the foreign exchange crisis in 2022, issuance of LCs was limited. This situation provided an opportunity for the big players in the market to take advantage.
Hussain Khan of Wateen Energy Solutions said that the direct cost of importing the panels was $0.15 per watt while they were being sold at $0.30 per watt in the local market, a 100 percent profit in the trading business. Seeing the profit rate, everyone started ordering solar panels. Companies that were also exporting rice ventured into this business. For example, they exported rice and now they could bring their dollars back from other countries and suddenly the distribution of solar panels increased significantly.
Mohammad Mujahid said that selling solar panels was not a problem and no experience was necessary, meaning that it was not difficult for you to amortize solar panels from grade A manufacturing companies and sell them in the local market. .
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What challenges did the solar panel trade face in Pakistan during 2022, and how did it impact the market dynamics?
**Interview with Muhammad Mujahid, Executive Director of Innovo Corp**
**Editor:** Thank you for joining us today, Muhammad. With the recent surge in solar panel imports in Pakistan, it seems like the market is really transforming. Can you tell us more about the scale of imports observed in early 2024?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Absolutely. In just the first half of 2024, Pakistan imported about 13 GW of solar panels from China. It’s quite remarkable, considering the previous few years of restrictions. This influx has made solar panels much more visible across the country, even being described as “seen on the roads.”
**Editor:** That’s an impressive number. However, the trade situation in 2022 was quite challenging due to dollar shortages. How did that impact the solar panel trade?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Right. In 2022, our central bank faced significant dollar shortages, resulting in a trade deficit and effectively banning imports of non-essential goods. For nearly nine months, we couldn’t import solar panels. Only essential goods like medicine and food were allowed. This created an unusual scenario where major players capitalized on the restrictions, leading to a very limited supply when we finally reopened the market.
**Editor:** How did this restricted supply affect costs and the subsequent demand for solar panels?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** The limited supply naturally pushed prices up. I’d say the direct cost of importing panels was around $0.15 per watt, but they were sold locally for double that, about $0.30 per watt. We saw a rush of orders as people recognized the potential profits. Businesses unrelated to the solar industry, even those in rice export, ventured into solar as they could bring capital back into the country.
**Editor:** So, the industry attracted a lot of new players due to the lucrative margins. But with such an influx of panels now, what’s the current state of profitability?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Interestingly, now that we have such an oversupply of solar panels in 2024, profit margins have plummeted, with some panels being sold at a loss. It’s unexpected how quickly some participants are considering exiting the market, given the previous high profitability.
**Editor:** That’s fascinating. What about investments from companies? Have you seen shifts in where the investments are coming from?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Yes, there’s been a noticeable pivot towards solar energy investment from both multinational and local companies. The commercial and industrial sectors are especially active, propelled by the realization that everyone with capital is turning to solar. It’s a straightforward investment model, with returns on investment typically realized within 18 to 24 months.
**Editor:** Looking forward, what do you predict for the solar market in Pakistan?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** I think we will see continued interest, especially given rising electricity prices driven by currency fluctuations and supply chain issues. Despite current challenges, solar energy remains a practical solution for many consumers and businesses.
**Editor:** Thank you for your insights today, Muhammad. The solar landscape in Pakistan indeed looks promising, but it’s clear that it’s a complex and evolving market.
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Thank you for having me. It’s a pivotal time for solar energy in Pakistan, and I’m hopeful for the future.