There is a lot of solar panels in Pakistan at the moment. According to a Bloomberg NEF report, 13 GW of solar panels were imported from China in the first half of 2024. According to one project developer, importing such a large number of solar panels resulted in solar panels being “seen on the roads.” In 2023, the demand for solar panels in Pakistan is about 3.5 GW, and in early 2024, Pakistan will be the target for Chinese solar exports. became the third largest market.
Muhammad Mujahid, executive director of Innovo Corp, said that in 2022, Pakistan’s central bank faced a shortage of dollars, leading to a trade deficit and an informal ban on imports. Only essential goods such as medicine and food could be imported, which meant that distributors were unable to bring in solar panels for nearly nine months.
Despite these restrictions, some solar panels were imported. Generally, a letter of credit (LC) is required from the importer’s bank to import goods. However during the foreign exchange crisis in 2022, issuance of LCs was limited. This situation provided an opportunity for the big players in the market to take advantage.
Hussain Khan of Wateen Energy Solutions said that the direct cost of importing the panels was $0.15 per watt while they were being sold at $0.30 per watt in the local market, a 100 percent profit in the trading business. Seeing the profit rate, everyone started ordering solar panels. Companies that were also exporting rice ventured into this business. For example, they exported rice and now they could bring their dollars back from other countries and suddenly the distribution of solar panels increased significantly.
Mohammad Mujahid said that selling solar panels was not a problem and no experience was necessary, meaning that it was not difficult for you to amortize solar panels from grade A manufacturing companies and sell them in the local market. .
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**Interview with Muhammad Mujahid, Executive Director of Innovo Corp: The Rising Solar Scene in Pakistan**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Muhammad. There’s been significant movement in the solar panel market in Pakistan lately. Could you share some insights on the recent import surge of solar panels from China?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Absolutely! As highlighted in a recent Bloomberg NEF report, Pakistan imported around 13 GW of solar panels in the first half of 2024 alone. This influx has been unprecedented and has led to solar panels, quite literally, being seen on the roads with increased distribution across the country.
**Interviewer:** That’s remarkable! How did this dramatic increase come about, particularly after the challenges faced in 2022 with the dollar shortage and trade deficits?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Well, the challenges were quite significant. In 2022, Pakistan’s central bank faced a dollar shortage, causing a trade deficit and limiting imports primarily to essentials like medicine and food. Consequently, solar panel importation faced restrictions, which lasted for nearly nine months. However, some panels still managed to come in, though the issuance of letters of credit was a major bottleneck during the foreign exchange crisis.
**Interviewer:** That sounds like a tough environment for businesses. How have market players responded to the rising costs and availability of solar panels?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** The environment created a unique opportunity for those willing to pivot. For instance, many companies that previously dealt in staple goods such as rice began to explore the solar panel market due to the attractive profit margins. Direct costs were around $0.15 per watt, while they were sold locally at $0.30 per watt, effectively leading to a 100% profit margin.
**Interviewer:** It sounds lucrative. But now that the market is flooded with panels, what impact is this having on prices and profitability?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** That’s a great question. With an unprecedented number of panels in the market, we’ve observed a rapid decline in profitability. In some cases, panels are being sold at a loss. I anticipated a longer adjustment period for those capitalizing on the industry to exit, perhaps around six months to a year, but it’s happening much faster than expected.
**Interviewer:** What do you attribute this swift market adjustment to?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** It seems that the rapid saturation of the market coupled with diminishing profit margins has forced many players to reconsider their investments. However, many who have successfully invested in solar, particularly in the commercial and industrial sectors, are still seeing this as a straightforward investment due to its potential for quick returns.
**Interviewer:** Would you say that solar energy remains a viable investment despite these fluctuations?
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Most definitely! Even if net metering becomes less profitable, the sharp rise in electricity prices due to various economic factors makes solar energy a solid long-term investment. The ROI can be realized within 18 months to two years, and that makes it an attractive option for capitalists in Pakistan.
**Interviewer:** Thank you for these insights, Muhammad. It seems the solar panel market in Pakistan is one to watch closely in the next few months!
**Muhammad Mujahid:** Thank you for having me! It’s certainly an exciting time for solar energy in Pakistan.