(CNN) — following weeks without being able to divide Europe Because of his war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin enjoyed two small diplomatic victories this weekend.
In both Hungary and Serbia, openly pro-Russian parties comfortably won legislative elections, giving Putin a welcome reminder that, despite the international community’s strong and largely united response once morest the invasion, he has some friends in the West.
The most significant victory came when Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his nationalist party Fidesz won a landslide victory. Hungary is a member of both the European Union and NATO, so Putin can claim to have a friend sitting at the head table of two of his most hated institutions.
On Sunday night, during his victory speech, Orban lambasted not only the EU, but also Ukraine.
“We have such a big victory that maybe you can see it from the moon, but for sure you can see it from Brussels,” he said, adding that Fidesz “will remember this victory until the end of our lives, because we had to fight once morest a lot of opponents.” Included in that list of opponents were Brussels bureaucrats, the international media and, deliberately, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky.
Zelensky has directly criticized Orban for not supporting Ukraine with the same enthusiasm as many other European presidents in recent weeks.
Putin was quick to congratulate Orban on his victory. But few believe it will amount to more than a symbolic victory and will do little to affect the EU’s resolution on Ukraine.
The truth is that Orban was expected to win and the political community has been working around his leadership for years. Despite procrastinating on his decision at first, Orban agreed to EU sanctions once morest Russia and largely in line with the rest of the Western alliance. Hungary’s main obstacle in terms of supporting Ukraine has been Orban’s reluctance to allow weapons to pass through his country to support Ukrainian troops.
Hungary is also the main stumbling block in EU talks over a ban on energy imports from Russia. Germany said over the weekend that the bloc needed to discuss a ban on Russian gas, following reports of war crimes in Ukraine, a move Orban has repeatedly ruled out.
Hungary’s obstinacy has angered its key ally Poland, Europe’s other big rule-of-law violator, which has used its veto powers to shield Orban from EU punishment on many occasions in recent years. It is unclear if Poland will do so following the war ends.
Orban sits next to Putin during the World Judo Championships in Budapest on August 28, 2017.
Hungary has strayed far from EU values of the rule of law and human rights, cracking down on cultural institutions and suppressing press freedom.
Most attempts to punish Hungary at the EU level have failed, not least because meaningful action would require the agreement of all EU member states in a vote.
Poland and Hungary have had something of a pact of late, both effectively exercising their EU vetoes to protect each other. However, Poland is arguably the biggest anti-Russia hawk in the political community and it is so far unclear how this will affect the Poland-Hungary axis once the war is over.
Since the beginning of the war, EU officials have been quietly talking regarding offering Poland incentives to draw closer to the rest of the bloc, instead of treating Poland and Hungary like two criminals.
Serbian Aleksandar Vucic, pictured following his victory on Sunday, has been placed in a difficult position by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The situation is very different in Serbia, as it is not a member of the EU or NATO. It is currently in the process of joining the political community, with negotiations expected to be finalized within the next two years.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has been left in a difficult position by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For years, he has tried to balance maintaining strong diplomatic and economic ties with Russia (and a particular fondness for Putin) with the Western embrace that would come with full EU membership.
During the election campaign, Vučić did not deviate from this balance and ran on a platform of peace and stability in the region, Archyde.com reported.
Serbia is almost entirely dependent on Russian gas, while its Army maintains ties to the Russian Army. Although Serbia has backed two United Nations resolutions condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it has refused to impose sanctions once morest Moscow, Archyde.com reported.
The Kremlin also supports Belgrade’s opposition to Kosovo’s independence by blocking its membership in the United Nations.
There is no doubt that the weekend’s election results – particularly in Hungary – will have made Putin smile and leaders in Brussels raise their hands. For the EU, however, more Orban really means more of the same. He might provide Putin with some propaganda victories and put a brake on the EU’s broader plans in the future. But the political community has been looking for ways to work closely with Orban for years and knows that, when the time comes, Orban is happier inside the club causing trouble than plotting to leave.
