If oil and gas prices soar with the war in ukrainethose from electricity are not left out. “The forward prices of electricity for the winter of 2022-2023 for delivery in France are extremely high” and have “almost doubled in a few weeks”, notes the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) in a report. . Electricity for delivery in the fourth quarter of 2022 was worth more than 800 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) in recent days while it was still less than 500 euros in the first half of June, an already very high level.
On Tuesday, electricity for delivery next year in France was at a record level, at 495 euros per MWh. This increase followed that of gazfollowing the announcement the day before of new drastic cuts in deliveries via the Nord Stream gas pipeline announced by the Russian gas giant Gazprom. However, prices in France have risen more than in its neighbours, particularly Germany, while France benefits from a better supply of gas, the prices of which indirectly affect those of electricity.
The French market under surveillance
CRE thus notes that futures prices in France no longer obey the usual logic. “They reflect either expectations of a severe shortage, or a high risk premium on the French electricity market, and probably the combination of the two,” she observes.
“In this context, in addition to the extension of its reinforced market surveillance actions, CRE will formally question market players on their strategies and their expectations for Winter 2022-2023”, she concludes. The Commission adds that it “has reinforced its monitoring of the French wholesale market since the second half of 2021” and “has not observed to date any behavior likely to be market manipulation on the futures prices of the electricity “.
