prices fall again, what next?

2023-10-31 05:30:51

But this week, a little relief is offered to motorists who need to fill up with fuel: the prices of diesel and SP95-E10 gasoline are showing a drop.

Fuel prices fall in France

Data from the Ministry of Ecological transition published on October 30, 2023 and finalized on October 27, 2023 reveal a significant drop in prices. Diesel, the most used fuel in France, saw its price fall by 2.8 cents, standing at 1.8542 euros per liter. A similar decrease is observed for the SP95-E10, which drops to 1.8249 euros per liter following a drop of 0.6 cents per liter.

Fuel prices, following a notable increase the previous week, seem to be returning to a downward trajectory. This trend is a direct response to the drop in the price of a barrel of Brent, which hovers around $90, impacted in particular by recent geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Hamas conflict. However, on the stock market front, tensions seem to be less significant: the barrel of dated Brent fell, according to the ministry, by 2.2 dollars over one week, posting 90.4 dollars per barrel.

The effect of cost price operations on fuels?

Several factors influence these prices. In addition to fluctuations in the global oil market, internal politics play a crucial role. Cost price operations and capped prices at certain distributors, as announced by the Minister of the Economy, contribute to this reduction in fuel prices at the pump.

Distributors have thus reduced the price of a liter by a few cents, cutting into their margins, while TotalEnergies has confirmed that its price will be maintained at a capped price of 1.99 euros per liter until at least the end of 2023. A measure which, with an average price of fuel which has fallen below 1.90 euros, no longer costs a single cent at a majority of gas stations.

Fuels: prices are falling… but savings are still on the horizon

For a 50 liter tank, the current reduction represents a real saving, but one that will not change the life of a household. For example, with diesel at 1.8542 euros per liter, the total cost for 50 liters is 92.71 euros, compared to 94.1 euros the previous week. This translates into a saving of around 1.39 euros per fill-up. For gasoline, on the other hand, the gain is very small: barely 3 cents less to pay for a 50-liter tank. Not really enough to put more butter in the spinach.

But the development remains positive. The price of gasoline and diesel exceeded 1.94 euros per liter just four weeks earlier, in September 2023. And there, the drop and the effect on the portfolio are most notable. We’re talking regarding almost 5 euros less for a 50 liter tank.

Other drops in oil prices (and therefore fuel prices) to come?

With the Israeli-Palestinian conflict worrying the entire world and threatening to spread at any time, international tensions are very high. But motorists can hope to see the price of gasoline and diesel fall further in the coming weeks.

The price of Brent oil, oil from the North Sea and that taken as a reference by the Ministry of Energy Transition, has once once more experienced a bearish period. On October 31, 2023, before the opening of the Paris Stock Exchange, it showed 86.72 dollars per barrel. Enough to potentially further drop prices at the pump by a few euro cents per liter before the end of November 2023.

But the specter of a crisis looms: the World Bank is indeed worried regarding an escalation of the conflict which might quite simply lead to a new oil shock for the world, which would have catastrophic consequences on world economies.

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