Guaranteed to finish number 1 in the Eastern Conference for a week, Miami players have been waiting to know their opponent in the first round of the playoffs. It will therefore be Atlanta, which after two great victories against Charlotte and Cleveland in the “play-in” finally validated its ticket.
But after reaching the Eastern Conference final last year, the Hawks, who therefore finish in the 8th and last qualifying place (5th in 2021), inherit a much stronger draw from the first round this season, the price to pay after a very mixed season. All the more full-bodied, as they approach this first round without Clint Capela, absent at least three matches, and a convalescent John Collins.
On paper, this series is the most unbalanced of the first round, and a contrast in style between the Heat’s defense and the Hawks’ all-out attack.
PRESENTATION OF THE HEAT
Holders: K. Lowry, M. Strus, J. Butler, P. Tucker, B. Adebayo.
The substitutes: T. Herro, D. Robinson, D. Dedmon, G. Vincent, C. Martin.
The coach: E. Spoelstra.
After the failure of last season, the Heat set the record straight this season. Behind a concrete defense and a consistent offensive game, Erik Spoelstra’s squad unfolded, establishing themselves as the best team in the Eastern Conference: Miami finished with a record of 53-29, 35-17 against the teams of his conference. All this despite the recurring absences of executives: Jimmy Butler (25), Kyle Lowry (19), Tyler Herro (16) and Bam Adebayo (26) have missed a total of 86 matches.
As always in Miami, it was the depth of the squad that offered additional resources and allowed the club to remain calm despite the various injuries. We think in particular of the emergence of “role players” trained internally, such as Max Strus, Gabe Vincent or Omer Yurtseven, who quietly gained weight and imposed themselves as reliable second knives in the rotation of “ Sp”.
We will especially remember the very big season of Tyler Herro, who has established himself as the best substitute in the league. Confident from pre-season, the back was given carte blanche off the bench and he took a step for his third year, approaching a first selection in the All-Star Game. He averaged 20.7 points (40% from 3-pointers on 7 attempts), 5 rebounds and 4 assists per game.
POINTS FORTS
– An experienced group. Finalist two years ago with a group very similar to that of this year, the Heat are not afraid of the pressure of the ax matches of the playoffs: Erik Spoelstra has already won two titles with Miami, Jimmy Butler made the playoffs with Chicago and Minnesota, Tyler Herro, then a rookie, had exploded during the playoffs of the “bubble” in Orlando, Bam Adebayo was in the playoffs three times in his first four seasons. In short, the proteges of Pat Riley, reinforced during the summer by the arrival of Kyle Lowry, conductor of the Raptors champions in 2019, are ready for the games of April.
– A defense that looks great. Historically and culturally built around defense, the Heat are no exception to their own rule this season. The Miami squad has the 4th best defensive rating in the league, with 108.4 points against 100 possessions, the 2nd best defense in the league at 3-pointers, with an opponents’ shooting percentage of only 33.9 %, and the best defense in the league in the key, averaging just 41.3 points conceded per game in his paint. Faced with the Hawks who survive mainly by their attack, the Heat have a lot of arguments to make.
WEAK POINTS
– The attack in “money-time”. Despite the presence of veterans like Kyle Lowry and Jimmy Butler, or that of Tyler Herro capable of being a “clutch”, the Heat have not shone in attack at the end of matches this season (21st best offense in the league in the 4th quarter). Opposite, the Hawks are rather on an opposite dynamic, since the men of Nate McMillan have the 5th best offensive evaluation in the league in the last quarter since the beginning of March (132.3 points scored on 100 possessions). While Atlanta can count on Trae Young to plant some huge shots in hot moments, Miami does not really have a hierarchy in the “money-time” since Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro or Kyle Lowry can recover the last shot. To monitor.
PRESENTATION OF THE HAWKS
Holders: T. Young, K. Huerter, D. Hunter, J. Collins (“incertain”), O. Okungwu
The substitutes: D. Wright, B. Bogdanovic, D. Gallinari, G. Dieng, T. Luwawu-Cabarrot
Absent: L. Williams, C. Capela (at least one week)
The coach: N. McMillan.
Eastern Conference finalists, the Hawks have failed to confirm this season. Weighed down by their calamitous defense from the first weeks of the regular season, Nate McMillan’s men showed little progress in the area, and the first part of the season was very chaotic since the Hawks were at 17v-25d in mid-January. .
Bad in defense, Atlanta has also been unlucky from a health point of view, with several key players affected by injuries: John Collins, De’Andre Hunter and Onyeka Okungwu have only played 54, 53 and 48 games respectively, when Bogdan Bogdanovic missed 19 matches. Add to that a cluster of Covid-19 which hit the club hard over the winter, and you have a laborious season.
But the Hawks got away with it thanks to their always-efficient attack, and notably signed a big second half of the season: 15 wins in 24 games after the All-Star Weekend. Sufficient to present a positive balance of accuracy (43-39), synonymous with “play-in”.
POINTS FORTS
– Nothing to lose, everything to gain. Faced with a largely favorite Heat team, leader of the Eastern Conference, the Hawks have the advantage of playing in a liberated way. After a successful play-in, Trae Young and company will face Miami without pressure, in the shoes of the outsider, with nothing to lose and everything to gain after a mixed regular season. This can be a strong point, as the Heat will be playing under first-place pressure, and the specter of an upset will hang over their heads. Faced with a team that is better on paper and that is a big favorite, the Hawks, uninhibited and in search of redemption after a disappointing 2021/22 exercise, will not be taken lightly.
– The attack. As we said, the Hawks saved their season, which was going into a spin because of an absent defense, thanks to a very efficient attack. Under the impetus of a Trae Young capable of huge cards, and true maestro on pick-and-roll, Atlanta posted the 2nd best offensive rating in the league, with an average of 115.4 points scored per 100 possessions. In addition, the Georgia squad can count on an outside address that is close to the peaks of the league, with an address behind the arc of 37.4% during the regular season, the 2nd best outside address, after… Miami. Against all odds, the Hawks will rely on their offensive firepower to try to shake up the Heat.
THE WEAK SPOTS
– A defense unworthy of a playoff team. The Hawks are pretty easy to pin down, being as good on offense as they are brittle on defense. At the end of the regular season, they were in 26th place in the defensive rating, with 113.7 points against per 100 possessions. And if it goes a little better over the second half of the season, it is still not famous with the 17th place following the All-Star Break. Clearly, Atlanta wins its games above all on offense, and not on defense.
A very weakened “frontcourt”. The latest news is that John Collins, who has been out since March 11 with a foot and hand injury, will try to play Game 1. He is considered “uncertain” on the match sheet, and it is likely that the medical staff will decide after the warm-up. Anyway, the Hawks strong winger will not be 100% physically, and it’s a safe bet that his contribution during the series will be greatly limited. But the biggest concern is Clint Capela, who injured his right knee against the Cavaliers. The MRI did not reveal any serious lesions, but the Swiss pivot cannot return immediately. According to the staff, he will be absent at least for a week, which probably means that the Hawks will have to do without him for at least the first two games of the series. A big blow for the club, which loses its only safe bet in defense, and the privileged partner of Trae Young on pick-and-roll.
SERIES KEYS
The outside address. The Heat were the most skillful team in the league behind the arc during the regular season (38%), the Hawks were their runner-up (37.4%). The 3-point address will therefore be a key factor in this series, and Miami seems to leave, a priori, with a small advantage. The reason: the Heat have the 2nd best defense in the league from behind the arc, their opponents having shot only 34% from 3-pointers during the regular season. Only the Celtics have done better. Conversely, the Hawks have often taken on water in this area, as mentioned above, and facing the most skilful team in the league, it is not necessarily reassuring.
The half-court game. The Heat like the Hawks are not racing cars, and prefer to build their attack on half-courts: the former have the 3rd slowest pace in the league (95.9 possessions on average over 48 minutes), the latter are not very far behind (97.7 possessions, 10th slowest pace). The half-court game will therefore be at the heart of the offensive strategies of both formations, and if Trae Young is contained by Kyle Lowry and company, the absence of Capela will clearly be felt.
REGULAR SEASON
Heat 3-1
January 13: Hawks – Heat (91-115)
January 15: Heat – Hawks (124-118)
January 22: Hawks – Heat (110-108)
9 avril : Heat – Hawks (113-109)
VERDICT
The regular season clashes have turned to the Heat’s advantage, and Erik Spoelstra’s squad, already more talented and more experienced, will also leave with a psychological advantage.
Sure of their strength, complete and especially at rest for a week, the Miami players are in good shape, with the first two games of the series at home, against Hawks orphans, for the moment, of Clint Capela, and possibly by John Collins. Without the Swiss pivot, Atlanta will suffer in the paint, and it will have to reinvent itself around the young and inexperienced Onyeka Okungwu, and the veteran Gorgui Dieng… A major challenge, which clearly unbalances the series even before it begins.
Overall, the Heat therefore seem largely above, in particular thanks to their defense and their experience in the playoffs. If the Hawks have the best attack, and Trae Young should splash the series with all his genius in attack, they have no certainty on the other hand in defense, especially without Clint Capela for the first week. In the playoffs, however, it is there that a series is often played.
Heat 4-1
SCHEDULE
Game 1 : Miami – Atlanta, 17 avril, 19h
Game 2 : Miami – Atlanta, 19 avril, 1h30
Game 3 : Atlanta – Miami, 22 avril, 1h
Game 4 : Atlanta – Miami, 24 avril, 1h
Game 5* : Miami – Atlanta, TBD
Game 6* : Atlanta–Miami, TBD
Game 7* : Miami – Atlanta, TBD
* if necessary