2024-04-21 03:00:00
More than 20 years ago, the mullahs’ regime secretly began developing nuclear weapons. Strict international economic sanctions hardly slowed Tehran.
Neither does Israel’s targeted killing of Iranian nuclear scientists. Just a big one Cyberangriff (“Stuxnet”), which also originated from Israel, set back Iranian progress by several years.
And when in Vienna in 2015, following years of struggle, the international Atom-Iran-Deal The hope was high: Iran would be so strictly controlled that secret nuclear equipment would no longer be possible.
Three years later that hope was gone Former US President Trump threw the deal into the wind – and since then Iran has been rearming at full speed once more.
Weapons-grade material
In its most recent report, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna noted with great concern: Iran already has around 120 kilograms of 60 percent highly enriched uranium in stock. It is weapons-grade material. If it is further enriched to 90 percent, experts say 50 kilograms are enough for a nuclear bomb.
Can Iran still be stopped from doing this? “An effective military action, for example through Israeli missile attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, would result in massive military strikes with the risk of further escalation,” believes Ulrich Schlie. In addition, due to a lack of comprehensive controls by the IAEA, there is currently “no complete situation report” on the development status of Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions.
On the contrary: “The nuclear agency only has access to the systems and materials that Iran releases,” he says Nuclear expert Pavel Podvig, who works at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research. Although there is still a certain amount of remaining trust, it is becoming less and less over time.
Iran is flirting with the bomb
In any case, Iran has the components for building a bomb ready, the uranium ore is mined in its own country, and the technology is probably also available, says Podvig. “There are no longer any serious technical obstacles. The barriers are just political.”
Tehran is also publicly flirting with this, even though the state is still officially a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. So said Ali Akbar Salehi, former foreign minister and once responsible for Iran’s national nuclear program, in a TV interview last year: “What does a car need? Chassis, engine, transmission, a steering wheel. Have we built all the parts? Yes, each part serves its own purpose.” In plain language: All the parts for a bomb are there, they just need to be put together.
But this is much more difficult than it initially sounds. First, a bomb that can be detonated must be built. To do this, the device must be massively reduced in size and mounted on a launch vehicle. “This is not a trivial task,” says Podvig, “and it takes time.” In the worst case scenario, the material might be made explosive within weeks or months, but in order to bomb another country with it, it would require significantly more time and preparation. “Iran is not there yet.”
There is also the question of whether building a single bomb is even enough for the country. If you look at the recent attack on Israel, the answer is no: the rocket would probably come from Iron-Dome-System be intercepted, and the mullahs’ entire nuclear threat potential would be gone.
It’s regarding the threat potential
Iran is concerned with what’s going on in its opponent’s head anyway, says Podvig. He believes that if the mullahs decide to build a bomb, they will make it public; they would withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. “The value of nuclear weapons is that everyone knows you have them. If you keep them hidden, it doesn’t do much good,” he says.
Tests like those in North Korea to demonstrate the bomb’s operational capability are therefore not necessary. They might even have the opposite effect: a test that goes wrong only strengthens the opponent.
In Jerusalem people are of course aware of these psychological games. But it’s not just Israel, says expert Schlie, that has reason to worry. “We all need to be wary of a nuclear-armed Iran.”
But why would the mullahs’ state attack another state with a nuclear bomb – knowing full well that the nuclear counterstrikes would also be devastating for Iran? “The mullahs in Tehran are unpredictable; they are already acting extremely harshly and brutally once morest their own population,” says Schlie. “You can’t simply rely on a rational approach based on the motto: ‘Something like that just doesn’t happen.’” He makes the comparison: “If your neighbor breeds fighting dogs and your garden fence is full of holes, then the insurance won’t be of much use to you. that they are all good and lovely animals – unless you are incredibly naive.”
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