2023-06-27 08:42:12
The recent serious events in Russia revealed the need for the United States to prepare for any possibilities that might result in great chaos in that nuclear country, especially after the stage of the end of the Kremlin forces’ war on Ukraine, according to an analysis published by the magazine “Foreign PolicyAmerican.
The analysis, researcher Luke Coffey, a fellow at the Hudson Institute for Studies, says that despite the deal reached by the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, with his former ally, Yevgeny Prigozhin, which ended the rebellion of the “Wagner” militia forces and prevented the outbreak of a civil war, this has not been canceled. Everything, adding: “That drama isn’t over yet.”
Covey believes that the rapid seizure of Prigozhin’s forces on two major Russian cities and the march of his elements to Moscow without being exposed to almost any resistance indicates that everything is possible in the future, including the fall of the Putin regime and the outbreak of civil war.
According to the article, since the start of the war on Ukraine, many analysts have warned that decision-makers in Washington and the West should prepare for post-war scenarios inside Russia, including civil war and the disintegration of that vast country.
“It may have taken Prigozhin to march into Moscow for Western policymakers to start thinking seriously about how to prepare for what might come next,” he added.
According to the analysis, although there are limited options for decision-makers to influence the outcome of internal turmoil in Russia, there are some things that still need to be done.
“First and foremost, American policymakers should not lose focus on Ukraine, because they have little ability to influence events in Russia, though it is historical,” the authors say.
Accordingly, Coffey says, “Washington’s top priority should remain support for Kiev’s counteroffensive and help Ukraine win the battlefield against Kremlin forces.”
Accordingly, there could be “an influence of the United States on the situation in Russia through a strong and victorious Ukraine that would be a bulwark against various scenarios of chaos, violence, or disintegration.”
And second, US policymakers should “accept that the real possibility of a Russian civil war does not mean that Washington should take sides in it,” the analysis says.
Covey explains his theory, saying, “Let the various centers of power within Russia fight each other. What Prigozhin almost achieved is a clear reminder that if Putin is overthrown, his replacement is likely to be a nationalist and authoritarian.”
He adds that “the West must stop hoping for a Russian leader to come to power and be moderate who wants peace with his neighbors and carry out reforms in his country.”
He added, “Because we do not know who will succeed Putin and the extent of violence in the transfer of power, this does not mean that Western countries have an interest in the stability of Putin’s regime, as we should learn from the mistakes made by the West in the nineties when it was reluctant to recognize the independence of the new countries from the union.” The Soviet collapsed because of fear of instability, and instead, the decision-makers naively hoped that democratic rule would prevail in Russia and the implementation of economic reforms, which never materialized.
However, according to Coffey, it is in the interest of the United States that no internal conflict spill over beyond Russia’s borders. This means strengthening bilateral cooperation with various countries across neighboring European and Asian territories to improve military readiness and enhance border security, law enforcement, and intelligence capabilities.
The writer stressed that there is an urgent need to intensify regional diplomacy, as the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus will be the key to the stability of the region in the event that Russia slips into a state of chaos.
Clear scenario and difficult questions
The analytical article believes that in the event of the collapse of the central government in Moscow or the outbreak of civil war, there is a very clear scenario revealed by Wagner’s push to Moscow without much resistance.
And that incident raised the necessity of answering some difficult questions about dealing with similar scenarios.
For example, how should the United States best coordinate an international response to the calls for independence or autonomy that are likely to emerge across Russia?
Russia includes many peoples and nationalities who have their own cultures and languages, as well as a long history of subjugation and exploitation by Moscow.
Some of these regions already have timid independence movements and even governments-in-exile.
As Russia descends into chaos, Western policymakers should expect some of these regions to seek safety and stability through independence.
The United States needs to work with its partners to coordinate a response to these calls for self-determination in a manner consistent with US interests and international law.
And American policymakers must also begin to think about how the infighting in Russia may affect the various unresolved conflicts that Russia has fomented throughout the region.
It is not only the Russian war on Ukraine that could be affected if the civil war breaks out, as Moscow’s forces are still occupying the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova.
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