2023-09-16 06:12:43
Hurricane Lee affects Boston and other areas. Typhoon occurrences are low since September. What will happen next?
September 16, 2023 15:12
Hurricane Lee is heading north in the Atlantic Ocean. In the future, New England, where Boston is located, will be affected. On the other hand, the number of typhoons has decreased since the beginning of September. We have summarized the possibility of typhoons occurring in the future.
Hurricane Lee affects New England, where Boston is located
Hurricane Lee is heading north in the Atlantic Ocean. At 11:00 pm local time (Atlantic Standard Time) on the 15th, the atmospheric pressure at the center was 965 hPa, and it was moving north-northeast at 17 knots (approximately 31 km/h).
Hurricane Lee currently appears to be moving through the waters of the Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream is said to be the world’s largest ocean current, along with the Kuroshio Current. The sea surface temperature in this area is over 26°C.
Hurricane Lee will continue to move northward, and will soon pass the northern limit of the Gulf Stream and move through rapidly cold waters with sea surface temperatures below 20 degrees Celsius. As a result, its strength is expected to weaken.
Hurricane Lee is expected to turn into a tropical storm and move toward New England, where Boston is located. Southern New England will experience strong winds and heavy rain, which might cause coastal flooding. Impact is expected to spread north along the New England coast into the 16th local time. There is a possibility of fallen trees and power outages.
The number of typhoons has decreased since September.
In Japan, it is normally typhoon season. In a normal year, the number of typhoons occurring in September is 5.0, which is the second highest month following August. However, this year, from the beginning of September until today, the 16th (Japan time), the number of typhoons has decreased to just one.
If you look at the top image of the clouds today, the 16th (Japan time), you can see some well-developed clouds over the sea south of Japan, but it seems unlikely that tropical disturbances such as typhoons will occur in the near future. .
The fact that typhoons have become less likely to form since the beginning of September is due to the lack of convective activity in the east of the Philippines, near the Mariana Islands, and south of Japan due to the El Niño phenomenon. It is thought that there are.
The possibility of typhoons occurring in the future is not low.
Convective activity will not increase significantly over a wide area over the ocean south of Japan for the next week or so.
However, the sea surface temperature is high at over 27℃, so we cannot be careless. Although typhoons are not caused solely by sea surface temperature, they are generally said to occur in areas where the sea surface temperature is 26 to 27 degrees Celsius.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, as shown in the figure above, from September 20th to 26th (UTC), the sea south of Japan is marked by a red diagonal line, indicating that tropical disturbances such as typhoons are occurring. This indicates that the possibility of development is not low.
If a typhoon occurs in the future, it is likely that it will move northward as it develops and approach Japan, as it will move through areas with high sea surface temperatures. Typhoons can also occur relatively close to Japan. In this case, it may come close to Japan as soon as it occurs.
Furthermore, in the above figure, from September 27th to October 3rd (Universal Standard Time), the sea south of Japan is a red area, indicating that there is a high possibility that tropical disturbances such as typhoons will occur and develop. is shown.
This fall, the autumn rain front will likely stay near Honshu. It is also possible that the warm, humid air from the tropics brought in by the typhoon will increase front activity and cause heavy rain.
In autumn, heavy rains can occur due to the combination of typhoons, autumn rain fronts, and the influx of warm, humid air, especially in areas on the Pacific coast, such as the Tokai heavy rains that occurred in September 2000. This year, the retreat of the Pacific high-pressure system in the summer is slow, so the autumn rain front moves southward slowly, and by mid-October, heavy rain is expected not only in areas on the Pacific side, but also in areas that do not usually experience heavy rain, such as northern Japan. Caution and vigilance may be required.
This year, the effects of typhoons and autumn rain fronts may continue for a long time. It’s a good idea to prepare for heavy rain on a daily basis.
Preparing for heavy rain
When heavy rain is predicted, you want to minimize the damage caused by the disaster. To that end, there are three things you should prepare in advance:
① Check the evacuation site and evacuation route. When a disaster occurs due to heavy rain, you may not be able to take an evacuation route or reach an evacuation site. It is important to check multiple evacuation sites and evacuation routes. Also, avoid choosing evacuation routes that are at high risk of flooding or landslides, such as avoiding routes near rivers or slopes. Share information regarding confirmed evacuation sites and evacuation routes with your family.
② Prepare emergency supplies. Please put your emergency items in a backpack or other item where you can use both hands, and place them in a place where you can easily take them. It is safe to wear sneakers or other shoes with thick soles that are easy to walk in during an evacuation. Also, prepare water and food in case lifelines such as water and electricity are cut off.
③ Clean the gutters and other areas to ensure good drainage. Make sure that it is not clogged with gravel, leaves, trash, etc.
In either case, please try to prepare as early as possible before the heavy rains arrive.
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